Next UK General Election thread

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Voting intention:
SURVATION
10/06/2017

LAB 45 (+5)
CON 39 (-2)
LIB 7 (-1)
SNP 3 (-1)
UKIP 3 (+1)
OTH 3 (-1)

On leadership:
YOUGOV
09/06/2017 - 10/06/2017

MAY 39 (-4)
CORBYN 39 (+9)

Congratulations, May, you've become Ted Heath 2: Electric Boogaloo.

Though may I offer don't-count-your-chickens advice--Labour could just as well get too cocky and blow it in the other direction, and I'm not even saying so from an anti-Labour standpoint.  Heck, even with a seat plurality *they* could fall short of a majority, and here we go again, *three* elections triggered within the space of a year or so...

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If you're to use the Canada comparison, the explanation's quite simple, really--the Canadian Liberals are much more of a viable force than their UK counterparts.

If a seat like Oakville were in Greater London, it'd be eternally landslide Tory.  (Though municipally, it'd be more of a mixed bag with LibDem wards and a touch of Labour in Kerr St-type areas)

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BC/Sask/Man are excellent provincial comparisons.  And also consider Australia...

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If you applied Canadian 2015 parties and dynamics to the UK, Tunbridge-ian seats might well be Liberal steals or at least ultramarginals; ditto with the more "urban" or immediate-Greater-London orbit seats in Surrey (Spelthorne, Guildford, Woking, E&E, E&W, etc).  And the NDP would be lost-deposit or close to it *everywhere* in Surrey.