Next UK General Election thread

[Leftbehind]

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Tweet by Richard Burgeon MP.

Good to see Labour returning to post-war mass-membership it held throughout the 40's to 70's. Should help with campaigning and funds for the next GE.

[Leftbehind]

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Tweet by Richard Burgeon MP.

Good to see Labour returning to post-war mass-membership it held throughout the 40's to 70's. Should help with campaigning and funds for the next GE.

Wow. This makes it the biggest mass party in Europe by far. How do one join the Labour? All the parties I know have paid membership.

Well it's no doubt changed a little since I joined 6-7 years ago but you just go to the website and apply online. They then send you out a pack, with a membership card, and keep you posted if there's any elections/materials produced (and royally spam your email). It's about £50 p/y direct debit, but I think it's halved for those not in employment (you can choose what you like, I guess, but I can't imagine many people would bother signing up in the first place if they weren't prepared to pay £50 towards the party).

[Leftbehind]

I'm interested to see how Corbyn himself interprets the election results. The impression I've gotten from here and elsewhere is that one of the reason Labour had such a successful campaign is that Corbyn allowed himself to be sidelined, with the party instead focusing the campaign on their manifesto. After the success and acclaim he's gotten since the election, will Corbyn be as willing to keep out of the limelight in the next one? And if he does take a greater role in the next election, which groups of voters and seats might be most effected by his decision?

That's not really that true. Labour certainly for their part attempted to make the campaign about their policy platform - undoubtedly their most attractive area (especially when compared to the Tories). However Tory strategy was to make it about personality and refocus the campaign on May vs Corbyn, and expose Corbyn - something Labour couldn't really avoid. But when Corbyn started beating May on her turf - consistently outperforming her in debates etc that was just as important to the success of the Labour campaign.

[Leftbehind]

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+4)
CON: 41% (-1)
LDEM: 6% (nc)
UKIP: 2% (-1)

(via @Survation)

Compared to the previous poll:
LAB (-1)
CON (+2)
LIB (-1)
SNP (0)
UKIP (-1)

This is a phone poll so you can't compare it directly with the previous internet survation poll

Changes from last telephone poll added.

[Leftbehind]

On Theresa May resigning as Prime Minister following the General Election result:

Support: 45%
Oppose: 48%

(via Survation, 16 - 17 Jun)

I'll take a narrow right-wing plurality over what we've been looking at for the past 3+ years.

[Leftbehind]

New ICM poll:

VI:
Lab 43% (+5)
Con 41% (-2)
Lib 7% (-1)
UKIP 3% (-1)
Grn 3% (+1)

Leadership:
+9 Corbyn (44% Good, 35% Bad)
-26 May (28% Good, 54% Bad)

Trust managing the economy:
39% May & Hammond
32% Corbyn & McDonnell

[Leftbehind]

YouGov/The Times (changes from their last pre-election poll):

Lab 46% (+11)
Con 38% (-4)
Lib 6% (-4)
UKIP 4% (-1)
Nats 4% (-1)
Oth 1% (-2)

Doesn't suggest the Nats have collapsed further - but the Greens appear to have.

[Leftbehind]

YouGov/The Times (changes from their last pre-election poll):

Lab 46% (+11)
Con 38% (-4)
Lib 6% (-4)
UKIP 4% (-1)
Nats 4% (-1)
Oth 1% (-2)

Doesn't suggest the Nats have collapsed further - but the Greens appear to have.

When polls list it only as Nats, does that just mean SNP & Plaid Cymru? It doesn't include Sinn Fein et al., right?

The polls don't list it as Nats, that's just the common shorthand. It's usually SNP/PCY.

[Leftbehind]

LibDems seem to be dead.

They've been in this position since 2011, just some seemed in denial about it. They took their left-wing voters for granted and delivered an austerity government a super majority, that few are rushing back to them post coalition is of no surprise to anyone but the party leadership.

And Labour would be just 4 seats shy of a majority:

In reality they'd already have a majority, given SF's abstention.

[Leftbehind]

It's not just their left flank (which was never that large, especially before 2005) it is that they have alienated successfully large elements of their core vote, who now have decided they might as well vote for one of the major parties - this benefits the Tories in practice. And the sort of campaign they ran for June was absolutely not the best way to win that vote back.

Their left flank certainly was substantial, and started under the leadership of Kennedy. I remember during the 2001 election coverage that fact being noted, with the BBC commissioning a poll to demonstrate that: asking each party's supporters their opinion on nationalisations, opposing privatisations and higher public spending, and on each they found substantially more take-up from the Lib Dem voters - and that was before the Iraq War, and the solidifying of the student vote.

I'd dispute it helping the Tories. The Tories benefited from their collapse but in nowhere near the numbers Labour did. In the South West and other bastions where the Liberals are the only hope of unseating them, and any Liberal vote lost is to their favour, certainly. But elsewhere it's very much in the Left's favour to have a unified vote and a remaining fringe pro-EU party mostly retaining committed right-liberals who'd otherwise likely vote Tory.