UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Silent Hunter]

Anyone who is going to answer a YouGov poll on the political issues that concern them is not your average voter; they're someone a good deal more engaged in political matters for one thing.

There was a political party committed to leaving the EU without a referendum - it's called UKIP and it won the 2014 EU elections in this country.

The EU we signed up to is vastly different from the EEC when we joined in 1973. A referendum would have had to happen sooner or later.

[Silent Hunter]

There's what people talk about on the doorsteps to someone wearing a rosette and what they talk about in private to each other. I've done canvassing as well. In most cases, people didn't talk to me at all except to confirm voter intention.

UKIP got nearly 4.4 million votes in 2014, so someone must have been concerned about it.

[Silent Hunter]

The EU does have a major impact on our immigration policy, mind.

[Silent Hunter]

The benefits of immigration haven't been felt by everyone. A 'net benefit' is irrelevant when you're a 'net loser'.

Also, May's "citizen of nowhere" comment should be put in its proper context:

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Unfortunately, politics has long been a case of ignoring context.

Perhaps May could have gone for Norway or Switzerland, but you'd have had a very large number of people wondering why we were still getting EU migrants when they voted to stop that. It wouldn't have united the country - it would have been seen as the worst of all worlds by both sides. Chequers is supposed to be a phased transition out, but it's not going to happen.

It's going to be No Deal or No Brexit; the EU knows this. May should have realised that we cannot just the EU like that, but she got handed an impossible task, which she then made worse with the 2017 election.

[Omega21]

The benefits of immigration haven't been felt by everyone. A 'net benefit' is irrelevant when you're a 'net loser'.

Also, May's "citizen of nowhere" comment should be put in its proper context:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Unfortunately, politics has long been a case of ignoring context.

Perhaps May could have gone for Norway or Switzerland, but you'd have had a very large number of people wondering why we were still getting EU migrants when they voted to stop that. It wouldn't have united the country - it would have been seen as the worst of all worlds by both sides. Chequers is supposed to be a phased transition out, but it's not going to happen.

It's going to be No Deal or No Brexit; the EU knows this. May should have realised that we cannot just the EU like that, but she got handed an impossible task, which she then made worse with the 2017 election.

I understand the EU migrant thing to an extent, but is that really such an issue considering the UK loves importing 3rd world country migrants who bring much worse issues that European migrants don't?

[Silent Hunter]

It was a provocative term and she should've been careful with her language, it was aimed at "the liberal metropolitan elites", the problem is yes large swath of remain voters are posh and affluent but many are lower middle class and working class people...

The entire conference was xenophobic, Amber Rudd proposed to make firms reveal foreign staff numbers...

Yep, because xenophobia works in politics. We're a pretty xenophobic nation all round, sadly. Comes with being an island.

@Omega21: What do you mean by much worse issues? Is this going to go down the Islamophobia path?

[Omega21]

It was a provocative term and she should've been careful with her language, it was aimed at "the liberal metropolitan elites", the problem is yes large swath of remain voters are posh and affluent but many are lower middle class and working class people...

The entire conference was xenophobic, Amber Rudd proposed to make firms reveal foreign staff numbers...

Yep, because xenophobia works in politics. We're a pretty xenophobic nation all round, sadly. Comes with being an island.

@Omega21: What do you mean by much worse issues? Is this going to go down the Islamophobia path?

I was referring to FGM, Acid attacks, Polygamy and Birth defects due to incest.

As far as I am aware, these issues were completely or almost completely non-existent before 3rd world migration, but feel free to correct me on it, would love to hear a story about Jack the good old English lad who likes to perform FGM after a night in the pub.

Edit: I should have also clarified that I know that the vast majority of 3rd world migrants do not participate in these things, but I want to see if you will actually acknowledge that these crimes are being solely carried out by that group, and not EU and UK citizens.

[Silent Hunter]

Nah, Jack the lad just went to a literal dog fight after the public hanging.

[Silent Hunter]

@Audrey: British people don't do those jobs because we've become a lazy people, a disease common to the West in general. "Why pick the fruit when some foreigner can it for half the price?"

[Omega21]

Nah, Jack the lad just went to a literal dog fight after the public hanging.

So you are not going to acknowledge that these are imported issues?

Also, as far as I am aware, the death penalty was abolished across Europe decades ago.

[Silent Hunter]

No, I'm ciaiming that we're not as civilised as we think we are. We like watching unknowing people getting humiliated in public on television for one thing.

[Silent Hunter]

Nah, Jack the lad just went to a literal dog fight after the public hanging.

So you are not going to acknowledge that these are imported issues?

Also, as far as I am aware, the death penalty was abolished across Europe decades ago.

Not until fall of Communism for most of those countries. France guillotined up until 1977.

[Silent Hunter]

The way we're heading most of the fruit and veggies are gonna rot in the fields...

Get the Instagram stars and the recruitment consultants to do it. Along with the far right hooligans.

[Omega21]

No, I'm ciaiming that we're not as civilised as we think we are. We like watching unknowing people getting humiliated in public on television for one thing.

So you are comparing humiliating someone to mutilating someone's reproductive organ or throwing acid in their face...

Man, that's not really a great argument, I kinda' feel like you are ashamed to be British or a white Brit. Instead, why not working to address the issues you mentioned and not import new ones?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think we're either looking at a 2nd referendum or a new General Election.

Even if a2nd Referendum were to vote to Remain after all, it's too late.  Do you really think all 27 EU countries will agree to allow a simple return to the status quo?  Britain will have to give up at least some of its carve outs to be able to get an agreement and that makes it even less likely that Britain  would agree to remain.

[Oryxslayer]

I also think a new election would be a hard sell to both parties - Tories from both sides of the debate probably prefer a Tory govt to a labour one, and there is a good chance an election would return an even more unworkable parliament without a clear winner. I suspect the twin camps are just suggesting no confidence to force May towards their position. It seems that after this round of maneuvering the UK will just continue to sail towards a 'No Deal" situation.

Or govt may collapse tomorrow, I'm in the US, I just read the papers.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I think we're either looking at a 2nd referendum or a new General Election.

Even if a2nd Referendum were to vote to Remain after all, it's too late.  Do you really think all 27 EU countries will agree to allow a simple return to the status quo?  Britain will have to give up at least some of its carve outs to be able to get an agreement and that makes it even less likely that Britain  would agree to remain.

Nah. The EU would bend over backwards to let the UK overturn Brexit as it would forever end the prospect of the union breaking up. If leaving via Article 50 is so impossible that the UK can't do it, other countries like Italy, Greece or Hungary will never attempt it and the European project is massively solidified. That's such a big win for Brussels that it's not something they would jeopardise over a rebate.

[Tirnam]

I think we're either looking at a 2nd referendum or a new General Election.

Even if a2nd Referendum were to vote to Remain after all, it's too late.  Do you really think all 27 EU countries will agree to allow a simple return to the status quo?  Britain will have to give up at least some of its carve outs to be able to get an agreement and that makes it even less likely that Britain  would agree to remain.

The United Kingdom is still a member of the European Union. If the United Kingdom withdraws Article 50 before March 29, I guess the United Kingdom will remain a member under the same conditions as today.
(But I know there is a debate and the ECJ has to give its opinion on the possibility for the United Kingdom to withdraw Article 50 unilaterally)
The situation will be different if the UK is out and then asks to join again the EU.

[Silent Hunter]

No, I'm ciaiming that we're not as civilised as we think we are. We like watching unknowing people getting humiliated in public on television for one thing.

So you are comparing humiliating someone to mutilating someone's reproductive organ or throwing acid in their face...

Man, that's not really a great argument, I kinda' feel like you are ashamed to be British or a white Brit. Instead, why not working to address the issues you mentioned and not import new ones?

Sometimes I am ashamed to be a white man. We've done so much evil in this world.

[Helsinkian]

Sometimes I am ashamed to be a white man. We've done so much evil in this world.

Attitudes like this are the reason Trump won.

[YL]

Rumours are spreading around again that the threshold of 48 letters from Tory MPs for a vote of no confidence in May's leadership either has been or is about to be reached.  We've been here before and nothing happened, though, so we'll see.

If a vote does happen, I suspect the question is not so much whether May actually loses, which I would think is unlikely, but whether she does badly enough that her position is felt to be untenable.

[Lumine]

Stephen Barclay (who?) is the new Brexit Secretary.

[YL]

@SamCoatesTimes
1922 motion of confidence

The trigger is 15% of the Parliamentary Party

2 MPs - Elphicke and Griffiths, have whip suspended

So current hurdle is 47 letters of no confidence (not 48)

I'm not sure about this; it depends how the rule is written.  I believe there are currently 315 Tory MPs, excluding Elphicke and Griffiths.  15% of 315 is 47.25, so if you round that down you do indeed get 47, but there's an alternative interpretation that you need 48 to have at least 15%.

(Not that it really matters, as if the most letters they can get is 47 their challenge isn't going anywhere anyway.)

[Lumine]

^^ according to twitter..

@tnewtondunn

1) New Brexit Secretary is Steven Barclay, a mid ranking health minister and former whip (who voted Leave).

2) But, a big but: Brexit Sec role is being stripped down, just now the domestic delivery of Brexit. PM will have sole charge of the final negotiations.

https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1063470293648400385

^^ why not abolish the ministry, if No 10 want to do all the negotiation... it's a waste of taxpayers money..

Well, since a no-deal Brexit is a possibilty it shouldn't be a bad idea per se to have a cabinet minister in charge of preparing for it. Even more interesting is the fact that he's a health minister.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think we're either looking at a 2nd referendum or a new General Election.

Even if a2nd Referendum were to vote to Remain after all, it's too late.  Do you really think all 27 EU countries will agree to allow a simple return to the status quo?  Britain will have to give up at least some of its carve outs to be able to get an agreement and that makes it even less likely that Britain  would agree to remain.

The United Kingdom is still a member of the European Union. If the United Kingdom withdraws Article 50 before March 29, I guess the United Kingdom will remain a member under the same conditions as today.
(But I know there is a debate and the ECJ has to give its opinion on the possibility for the United Kingdom to withdraw Article 50 unilaterally)
The situation will be different if the UK is out and then asks to join again the EU.

I don't see any option in Article 50 for the UK to unilaterally withdraw its invocation.  All I see is an option to extend the deadline past two years if all the EU states agree, and I suppose that there could be a permanent extension, but as I said I don't see all the other EU states, especially those that don't have a lot of economic interaction with the UK agreeing to a return to the status quo.