UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Silent Hunter]

I think we're either looking at a 2nd referendum or a new General Election.

Even if a2nd Referendum were to vote to Remain after all, it's too late.  Do you really think all 27 EU countries will agree to allow a simple return to the status quo?  Britain will have to give up at least some of its carve outs to be able to get an agreement and that makes it even less likely that Britain  would agree to remain.

The United Kingdom is still a member of the European Union. If the United Kingdom withdraws Article 50 before March 29, I guess the United Kingdom will remain a member under the same conditions as today.
(But I know there is a debate and the ECJ has to give its opinion on the possibility for the United Kingdom to withdraw Article 50 unilaterally)
The situation will be different if the UK is out and then asks to join again the EU.

I don't see any option in Article 50 for the UK to unilaterally withdraw its invocation.

There is a ECJ case currently determining if that is possible.

[Silent Hunter]

Thatcher beat Heath in a leadership contest.

[PSOL]

UK austerity has inflicted 'great misery' on citizens, UN says
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/16/uk-austerity-has-inflicted-great-misery-on-citizens-un-says

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How will the report affect voters in this climate? With Brexit, will the Tories be negatively affected. What about the Lib Dems?

I’m getting sources telling me that there will be a challenger for PM against May. How is Jacob Reese-Mog’s or Dominic Raab’s chances If there is a no-confidence vote.

[Blair]

Thstchers Dad was a proper Tory- she hardly came from a pit village

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Thstchers Dad was a proper Tory- she hardly came from a pit village

Yeah, he was an middle class small business-owning old school Gladstonian Liberal, the sort who believed that the Undeserving Poor were so because of their immoral vices and just needed to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Alfred Roberts was hardly humble, at least not by the time his daughter was born: he owned not a shop but a chain of greengrocers and was a powerful man in Grantham for many decades. He wasn't posh, of course, but he was local establishment through and through. There's a lot of myth-making about the social backgrounds of British party leaders; hardly surprising in a society as class-obsessed as ours, of course.

[Tirnam]

I think we're either looking at a 2nd referendum or a new General Election.

Even if a2nd Referendum were to vote to Remain after all, it's too late.  Do you really think all 27 EU countries will agree to allow a simple return to the status quo?  Britain will have to give up at least some of its carve outs to be able to get an agreement and that makes it even less likely that Britain  would agree to remain.

The United Kingdom is still a member of the European Union. If the United Kingdom withdraws Article 50 before March 29, I guess the United Kingdom will remain a member under the same conditions as today.
(But I know there is a debate and the ECJ has to give its opinion on the possibility for the United Kingdom to withdraw Article 50 unilaterally)
The situation will be different if the UK is out and then asks to join again the EU.

I don't see any option in Article 50 for the UK to unilaterally withdraw its invocation.  All I see is an option to extend the deadline past two years if all the EU states agree, and I suppose that there could be a permanent extension, but as I said I don't see all the other EU states, especially those that don't have a lot of economic interaction with the UK agreeing to a return to the status quo.

There isn't either any indication in Article 50 that the member can't withdraw its invocation.
The Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, in its article 68, indicates that a State can revoke a notification aimed to withdraw from a treaty at any time before it takes effect.
Now obviously European Law is not International Law, but if you consider that a State by invoking the Article 50 is acting as a sovereign State, it surely can, as a sovereign State, reverse its intention.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think we're either looking at a 2nd referendum or a new General Election.

Even if a2nd Referendum were to vote to Remain after all, it's too late.  Do you really think all 27 EU countries will agree to allow a simple return to the status quo?  Britain will have to give up at least some of its carve outs to be able to get an agreement and that makes it even less likely that Britain  would agree to remain.

The United Kingdom is still a member of the European Union. If the United Kingdom withdraws Article 50 before March 29, I guess the United Kingdom will remain a member under the same conditions as today.
(But I know there is a debate and the ECJ has to give its opinion on the possibility for the United Kingdom to withdraw Article 50 unilaterally)
The situation will be different if the UK is out and then asks to join again the EU.

I don't see any option in Article 50 for the UK to unilaterally withdraw its invocation.

There is a ECJ case currently determining if that is possible.

If it it does so determine, it'll only be because they're taking advantage of the lack of a explicit statement that it can't to insert a new provision not envisaged by the law.  But it probably won't matter.  Even if May falls, I think the Tories will be able to limp along long enuf to keep Corbyn out of Number 10 until after 29 March. Once that happens, it won't be possible under even the most twisted interpretation of Article 50 to undo Brexit.  At that point the UK would have to reapply for admission under Article 49, and I can't possibly see that being approved.

[Silent Hunter]

Not without a committment to join Schengen and the Euro. That said, Poland's managed to get away with not doing the latter for 15 years (so has Czechia).

[Silent Hunter]

The backstop is there unless and until a new trade deal is negotiated. If you want to leave the backstop, then make a new deal that does not require a hard border in Ireland.

Simples.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The backstop is there unless and until a new trade deal is negotiated. If you want to leave the backstop, then make a new deal that does not require a hard border in Ireland.

Simples.

Not so simples.  The EU is insisting (and I don't blame them for so insisting) that regardless of whether it's just NI or all of the UK that you can't be part of a borderless trade zone without accepting all of the common market rules.  The whole point of Brexit was to get out of the common market rules (and yet somehow stay in the market according to the nonsense that the Leave campaign put out.)

An intra-UK border just to avaoid an Irish border won't appeal to all that many.

Hard Brexit is Coming.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

EEA is basically EU with no real say but also an exclusion from the agricultural and fisheries policies. It certainly wasn't what was envisaged by those campaigning for Leave, but it may be the nest option available. It also will certainly not be what happens as long as Britain has a Tory government.

[Blair]

Jacob Reese-Mog is not running to be PM, and he will never be PM,
England is a class divided society, working class people and lower middle class people will never vote for an aristocrat..

I mean I remember 2005 very well, the moment working class voters heard Cameron's posh accent they were turned off, he was seen as arrogant posh Eton Tory who didn't care about normal people,
I honestly believe had David Davis won the Tory leadership he might not have done well in London suburbs but he would've done much better in the midlands and the north back in 2010...

Jacob Rees-Mogg: I have six children but have never changed a nappy
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/21/jacob-rees-mogg-have-six-children-have-never-changed-nappy/

Jacob Rees Mogg isn't an aristocrat- beyond his Dad having a life peerage (something that John Prescott has) he's got virtually no link to the aristocracy of this country. He just acts like one because he knows how gullible the public are.

Besides, working class and lower middle class have a very well documented history of voting for aristocrats- Churchill, Douglas-Home, Eden all won a fair share of the 'working class' (male) vote- and the history of working class conservatism in cities like Birmingham is very well noted.

The point about Cameron is factually wrong- voters actually quite liked Cameron, and Labours lazy 'he's a posh tory' attacks are the reason why he is the most electorally successful Tory since Thatcher.

He won a rather vast swathe of 'working class' (whatever that is?) seats in 2010- Clacton, Crewe and Scarborough etc etc

[PSOL]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-protest/london-bridges-blocked-by-environment-protest-70-arrested-idUSKCN1NM0LI

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Good that people are showing their opinions with their feet, now it is time to hit the ballot box with parties and people that care about the environment.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It's very funny how Leave campaigners used to cheer on Norway and Switzerland as model nations, but now view their status would turn us into a Brussels colony.

[PSOL]

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-bannon/ex-trump-strategist-bannon-says-eu-is-trying-to-thwart-brexit-idUSKCN1NL2N9

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How in the world has the EU prevented BREXIT. That is like blaming a neighbor for shooting someone when that someone pulled the trigger in public.

 More importantly, why didn’t the Tories create an exploratory committee to see if Brexit was a good idea, and what is the best course of action to Leave?

[Slow Learner]

this is an absolute shambles from both may and the erg

[MillennialModerate]

@StigAbell
The Lib Dems’ utter inability to make significant gains in the last six months must count as one of the biggest political failures in my lifetime.

^^ He's not wrong, Clegg absolutely destroyed the party and Vince cable is struggling to expand the party beyond 7-8%...

This is so true.

With Corbyn a polarizing leader of Labour and Theresa May making everyone pissy - You’d think the Lib Dems would make serious serious gains at this stage

[MillennialModerate]

https://youtu.be/a6gbjFmha5A

This was one of the most brutal, sharp political takedowns I have ever heard.

[DaWN]

@StigAbell
The Lib Dems’ utter inability to make significant gains in the last six months must count as one of the biggest political failures in my lifetime.

^^ He's not wrong, Clegg absolutely destroyed the party and Vince cable is struggling to expand the party beyond 7-8%...

This is so true.

With Corbyn a polarizing leader of Labour and Theresa May making everyone pissy - You’d think the Lib Dems would make serious serious gains at this stage

because we're back to 2-party system or at least in England.
Labour and tories polled 82.4% (UK-wide) of the vote in 2017 and 87.3% of the vote in England in 2017,
it's the highest both labour and tories polled since 1970..

There's little doubt in mind a credible third party would do very well. Aside from their vocal cheerleaders, I don't think there's much enthusiasm for either third party. That credible third party is not the Lib Dems who still have the stench of coalition on them and while I do respect Vince, he's far too low energy and has kept far too low of a profile to do much. With their policies and how awful the main two parties are I should be all over them - instead I vote for them VERY reluctantly because the alternatives are worse. Until we get a new party of some kind, I don't think the appalling status quo is going anywhere.

[Silent Hunter]

UK running out of food warehouse space as no-deal Brexit fears rise
Owners of storage facilities say demand has reached ‘fever pitch’ since last week’s chaos

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/18/uk-running-out-of-food-warehouse-space-as-no-deal-brexit-fears-rise?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

@MrHarryCole
Nicky Morgan says debate about PM’s future is debate for “some months hence”. Not exactly calling off the dogs.


@BrunoBrussels

1) Spanish are very unhappy with the withdrawal agreement

2) Madrid wants clear language that future trade relationship does not apply to Gibraltar unless UK negotiates it first bilaterally with Spain

3) Josep Borrell, the Spanish foreign minister
“We want to make sure the interpretation of this text is clear and shows that what’s being negotiated between the EU and the UK does not apply to Gibraltar.

4) “The future negotiations over Gibraltar are separate. Until that’s clear in the exit text and the political declaration over the future relationship, we won’t be able to agree to it.”

5) Spain objects to how Art 3 of the WA relates to Art 184
Art 3 sets out the territorial scope of the WA, including Gibraltar
Art 184 commits the EU and UK to best endeavours on future relationship Spain accepts that Art 3 on withdrawal is ok but not 184, future

6) EU guidelines end March 2017
'After the United Kingdom leaves the Union, no agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom may apply to the territory of Gibraltar without the agreement between the Kingdom of Spain and the United Kingdom."

7) It'll be dealt with in the political declaration, I suspect. Along with fisheries there could be a minor drafting tweak to Art 184 if UK doesn't object

Couldn't Gibraltar just stay in the Single Market? They voted to Remain after all. Also, for all the moaning Spain likes to do about place, there's a lot of Spaniards who happily cross that border daily for jobs among the macaques.

(Not literally among the macaques. They pretty keep to the Rock itself).

[Former President tack50]

Actually, I imagine "reverse Greenland" would be the best option for Gibraltar since they voted like 96% in favour of the EU. Then again I do wonder if the Spanish government will accept that.

Right wing parties here are actually claiming that Spain actually gave up too much to the UK regarding Gibraltar.

Why? I don't know.

[Silent Hunter]

John McDonnell should remember that James Callaghan governed for nearly three years without a majority.

Also, the DUP is never going to vote to allow a Corbyn government in. What has he got to offer them?

Wollaston knows that and she's calling for a vote to clear there. Once a no-confidence vote fails, only option will be second referendum.

[Silent Hunter]

The problem isn't the policies, it's the man.

[Tintrlvr]

Actually, I imagine "reverse Greenland" would be the best option for Gibraltar since they voted like 96% in favour of the EU. Then again I do wonder if the Spanish government will accept that.

Right wing parties here are actually claiming that Spain actually gave up too much to the UK regarding Gibraltar.

Why? I don't know.

I'm pretty sure the Spanish right think anything short of Spain annexing Gibraltar outright is the EU giving up too much in respect of Gibraltar.