UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[ag]

She won't lose today. But if she were, who'd be the interim PM? Would she stay? Would the Queen appoint some other Tory?

[Oryxslayer]

Why exactly would the Tories willingly surrender power to Labour, because thats what a true confidence vote would do.

Because the parliamentary arithmetic currently means that there is no Brexit deal which can command the majority of parliament, so it's either a general election to change that arithmetic or wave no deal through.

Maybe then I'm more pessimistic then you then, I expect the Tories in such a scenario to begrudgingly accept a 'no deal' scenario and maintain power until 2022, rather then cave now and lose power for an unknown period of time.

[Coastal Elitist]

So what I don't really understand is if the EU doesn't want the UK to leave why would they approve any deal?

Also, I think it would be a slap in the face to all the voters who voted to leave if a second referendum was held.

[Tintrlvr]

Why exactly would the Tories willingly surrender power to Labour, because thats what a true confidence vote would do.

Because the parliamentary arithmetic currently means that there is no Brexit deal which can command the majority of parliament, so it's either a general election to change that arithmetic or wave no deal through.

Or a second referendum; if Labour can't get a VONC, they'd probably back that.

Would they? Corbyn is clearly a diehard Leaver, whatever he says in public, which is why he's so opposed to a second referendum. I think he'd honestly prefer crashing out in a no deal scenario. Which makes things tricky. Definitely an overwhelming majority of the Labour MPs would support a second referendum, but, with Corbyn vocally opposed, Labour has its own problems.

To form the government at this point Labor would need SNP and LibDems. And I am pretty certain both would insist on a second referendum if they are to vote for that government.

There's definitely not going to be a Labour government without an election. They'd also need either the DUP or Tory Remainer rebels, and the DUP is not going to support another referendum or a Labour-led (or at least Corbyn-led) government at this point, and the Tory Remainers would likewise never support a Corbyn-led government (and probably not under any other Labour leader although at least there would be a chance if someone else was leading Labour). I was thinking about the possibility of a parliamentary vote forcing a referendum while the Tories stayed nominally in government, if May decides she can't get a deal.

[DaWN]

The Tories will cling onto power like barnacles to a ship. They'll be dragged into a general election kicking and screaming.

Frankly I only see two options now: No Deal or a second referendum. One of those two is much MUCH more likely than the other.

[Tintrlvr]

So what I don't really understand is if the EU doesn't want the UK to leave why would they approve any deal?

Because the deal is terrible for the UK, and the EU knows it, and prefers to let the Leavers rip themselves apart fighting over the possibility of a deal than to suggest no deal at all is possible.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Isn't it insulting to the people who have changed their minds, or the people who were under 18 before but are over 18 now, to not let them express their preference in a new referendum? Or for the result to be determined in part by people who have since died? We can go on.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Why exactly would the Tories willingly surrender power to Labour, because thats what a true confidence vote would do.

Because the parliamentary arithmetic currently means that there is no Brexit deal which can command the majority of parliament, so it's either a general election to change that arithmetic or wave no deal through.

Or a second referendum; if Labour can't get a VONC, they'd probably back that.

A second referendum would require primary legislation. i.e. Tory Remainers deciding to support a Labour minority government with Corbyn as Prime Minister for several months. That's far less likely than Conservatives voting for a general election.

[Silent Hunter]

Not if it's May's Deal vs. Remain. If she can't get it through the Commons, she would likely seek to get a popular mandate that didn't threaten her government.

Being remembered as the PM who presided over a No Deal Brexit isn't something anyone would want to do.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So what I don't really understand is if the EU doesn't want the UK to leave why would they approve any deal?

Also, I think it would be a slap in the face to all the voters who voted to leave if a second referendum was held.

Why? The voters now have a clear idea of what Brexit will look like. A three-option IRV or Condorcet vote to confirm their opinion now is not a slap in the face but a pat on the back that you trust them to decide.

[Silent Hunter]

So what I don't really understand is if the EU doesn't want the UK to leave why would they approve any deal?

A disorderly exit is pretty bad for Ireland and France in particular; especially with all the extra checks that would require.

What they don't want to do is give the UK a "good deal", which would encourage other anti-EU parties.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Not if it's May's Deal vs. Remain. If she can't get it through the Commons, she would likely seek to get a popular mandate that didn't threaten her government.

I don't see why May would go for that referendum because 1) it would enrage Brexiteers and split the party, and 2) her deal would likely lose to Remain in a binary choice.

I think it's more likely May would call a snap general election to ratify her deal than a referendum on it, because that way she could take advantage of Labour's divisions and play up the threat of no deal if she loses.

[Lumine]

No way a snap general election takes place, I don't see the Conservatives willingly voting for one - as it requires two thirds of Parliament - with May at the helm even if she wants one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

When will we know the results of the confidence vote?

[jeron]

When will we know the results of the confidence vote?

Should be there in 15 minutes

[Former President tack50]

At this point could Labour and the Tories form some sort of national unity government to handle Brexit?

Or at the very least try and negotiate Brexit in a bipartisan way? (what should have been done from the beginning)

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

May wins the confidence vote

200 Yes to 117 No

[jeron]

May wins the confidence vote

200 Yes to 117 No

She will be a lame duck now, not enough support from the backbenchers

[Oryxslayer]

May wins the confidence vote

200 Yes to 117 No

She will be a lame duck now, not enough support from the backbenchers

She has been a lame duck since 2017.

[Pericles]

Seems like a mixed result, May clearly won and gets another year as PM but her authority is undercut. A win is a win, but this win is worse than it should have been.

[rc18]

So now Corbyn tables a VONC, May looses, and we have a snap general election with May in charge of the campaign.

What could possibly go wrong.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Welp, one more year of "strong and stable" leadership.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

This is absolutely perfect for Labour: May survives as PM with her authority permanently wounded but guaranteed to lead the Tories into a snap election.

Yep, perfect result.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Disappointing, though not a surprise.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So now Corbyn tables a VONC, May looses, and we have a snap general election with May in charge of the campaign.

What could possibly go wrong.

But would enough of the Conservatives who voted against May in this vote also vote against her in a vote among Parliament as a whole?

[rc18]

So now Corbyn tables a VONC, May looses, and we have a snap general election with May in charge of the campaign.

What could possibly go wrong.

But would enough of the Conservatives who voted against May in this vote also vote against her in a vote among Parliament as a whole?

The Conservatives do not have enough votes, they have a minority government propped up by the DUP.  And the DUP have already stated they will vote against her if she continues pushing her backstop arrangement.