UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Oryxslayer]

So now Corbyn tables a VONC, May looses, and we have a snap general election with May in charge of the campaign.

What could possibly go wrong.

But would enough of the Conservatives who voted against May in this vote also vote against her in a vote among Parliament as a whole?

Not likely. Unless the overall goal is chaos, at which point the Tories might publically stab each other to force a new election and even more chaos.

So now Corbyn tables a VONC, May looses, and we have a snap general election with May in charge of the campaign.

What could possibly go wrong.

But would enough of the Conservatives who voted against May in this vote also vote against her in a vote among Parliament as a whole?

The Conservatives do not have enough votes, they have a minority government propped up by the  DUP.  And the DUP have already stated they will vote against her if she continues pushing her backstop arrangement.

But the DUP also said they would protect May in a VONC, which also protects their influence. Regardless of what happens the DUP does not want to lose the power they have right now - which happens under a VONC.

[Silent Hunter]

So now Corbyn tables a VONC, May looses, and we have a snap general election with May in charge of the campaign.

What could possibly go wrong.

But would enough of the Conservatives who voted against May in this vote also vote against her in a vote among Parliament as a whole?

The Conservatives do not have enough votes, they have a minority government propped up by the DUP.  And the DUP have already stated they will vote against her if she continues pushing her backstop arrangement.

They said they would only vote against her if the WA passed.

[rc18]

So now Corbyn tables a VONC, May looses, and we have a snap general election with May in charge of the campaign.

What could possibly go wrong.

But would enough of the Conservatives who voted against May in this vote also vote against her in a vote among Parliament as a whole?

The Conservatives do not have enough votes, they have a minority government propped up by the DUP.  And the DUP have already stated they will vote against her if she continues pushing her backstop arrangement.

They said they would only vote against her if the WA passed.

But no WA she manages to get the votes for will be acceptable to the DUP anyway.

[Silent Hunter]

So now Corbyn tables a VONC, May looses, and we have a snap general election with May in charge of the campaign.

What could possibly go wrong.

But would enough of the Conservatives who voted against May in this vote also vote against her in a vote among Parliament as a whole?

The Conservatives do not have enough votes, they have a minority government propped up by the DUP.  And the DUP have already stated they will vote against her if she continues pushing her backstop arrangement.

They said they would only vote against her if the WA passed.

But no WA she manages to get the votes for will be acceptable to the DUP anyway.

And no WA she can get the votes for is acceptable to the EU27.

[Tintrlvr]

So now Corbyn tables a VONC, May looses, and we have a snap general election with May in charge of the campaign.

What could possibly go wrong.

But would enough of the Conservatives who voted against May in this vote also vote against her in a vote among Parliament as a whole?

The Conservatives do not have enough votes, they have a minority government propped up by the DUP.  And the DUP have already stated they will vote against her if she continues pushing her backstop arrangement.

They said they would only vote against her if the WA passed.

But no WA she manages to get the votes for will be acceptable to the DUP anyway.

Which unfortunately just makes a no deal crash out more likely,
It been apparent for a while Theresa May is making it up as she goes along.

2 months ago I was 100% sure no deal is off the table, but now not so sure, it the default outcome,
we can assume 117 Tory MPs that voted against her today will vote against her deal plus 10 DUP MPs which means WA is dead,

The only way out of this mess is she does a U-turn and calls for 2nd referendum.

Crash out is the default, but only in the sense that it happens if Parliament doesn't revoke/extend Article 50, which we know now that they can. No question May could get enough votes to extend Article 50 to keep "negotiating"; March 29 isn't a hard deadline anymore.

[Silent Hunter]

An extension would need EU27 approval, but a revocation doesn't.

[Tintrlvr]

So now Corbyn tables a VONC, May looses, and we have a snap general election with May in charge of the campaign.

What could possibly go wrong.

But would enough of the Conservatives who voted against May in this vote also vote against her in a vote among Parliament as a whole?

Not likely. Unless the overall goal is chaos, at which point the Tories might publically stab each other to force a new election and even more chaos.

Well, you hardly need all 117 rebels to vote no confidence for the government to fall. Just a handful would do. I'm sure there are a handful of Tories in it for the chaos at this stage.

[Tintrlvr]

An extension would need EU27 approval, but a revocation doesn't.

Revocation is practically speaking an extension - revoke and then invoke it again later.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not a good enough result for May to make her troubles go away, while also being a very poor result for the ERG, at least when one ignores their own ridiculous spinning and special pleading: to lose nearly two to one in a vote that you have spent months lobbying for is a bit embarrassing.

[DaWN]

Not a good enough result for May to make her troubles go away, while also being a very poor result for the ERG, at least when one ignores their own ridiculous spinning and special pleading: to lose nearly two to one in a vote that you have spent months lobbying for is a bit embarrassing.

Pretty much agree with this, with the addition of noting the irony of John McDonnell claiming May no longer has a mandate to leave because a third of her MPs don't support her.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Any chance now that some Tory MPs resign the whip? (Or whatever the term is for going independent?)

[Silent Hunter]

Not a good enough result for May to make her troubles go away, while also being a very poor result for the ERG, at least when one ignores their own ridiculous spinning and special pleading: to lose nearly two to one in a vote that you have spent months lobbying for is a bit embarrassing.

This whole thing is a farce of the first order.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Brexit: Endgame

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[IceAgeComing]

The fact that the referendum vote was the largest democratic mandate in this country's history, larger than any general election, proves you are talking bollocks.

This forum is fundamentally a forum about psephology; and so outright mistruths like this should be called out.

There have been a fair few General Elections since the war with higher turnouts than the referendum and I believe four where the party who got the most votes got a higher share of the Electorate than Leave managed in the 2016 referendum - and in one of those (1951) that party didn't even win the election, and BOTH major parties got a higher share of the Electorate than Leave got in the referendum.  So unless you use raw votes - which would be misleading since the population has grown since then, and because you have a large electorate because 18-20 year olds can vote now - then in absolutely no way is this statement at all accurate.

[GoTfan]

I think this sums up the entire Brexit debate succintly: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJzW_gFoXR0

[Coffein00]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-eu-angela-merkel-scraps-plan-meeting-juncker-european-council-summit-a8682786.html

no comment.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The best choice for the UK policy-wise would be to leave the EU but stay in the common market, Norway-style, and then call a new referendum specifically on whether they should also leave the common market, in full knowledge of the potentially disastrous economic implications. That way, the mandate of the referendum will have been formally respected, but those who call for a new referendum would also get a chance to make their case.

Of course, this is politically impracticable for a number of reasons.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The best choice for the UK policy-wise would be to leave the EU but stay in the common market, Norway-style

That is not an option because it requires Norway to agree, and Norway has rejected it.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-eu-angela-merkel-scraps-plan-meeting-juncker-european-council-summit-a8682786.html

no comment.

Wow, DUP is not going to like that...

[ag]

If it is no deal, what would be the visa regime for British tourists in Europe?

[Silent Hunter]

If it is no deal, what would be the visa regime for British tourists in Europe?

Depends on what the UK does. However, unless we Remain, we'll be going to the standard Schengen visa free rules i.e. max 90 days in any 180, with the €7 fee waiver required every three years from 2021 onwards.

Same as the US, basically.

[ag]

If it is no deal, what would be the visa regime for British tourists in Europe?

Depends on what the UK does. However, unless we Remain, we'll be going to the standard Schengen visa free rules i.e. max 90 days in any 180, with the €7 fee waiver required every three years from 2021 onwards.

Same as the US, basically.

Is it clear it is going to be visa-free? Does it follow from some actual document?

[MillennialModerate]

You know as an American I was pretty Pro-Remain. For one I wanted our number one Allie in the world to have clout in Europe and all that. But honestly, now I want the Brits to have Brexit because the country voted to LEAVE. How hard is it to simply honor that vote? And May’s deal is AWFUL, the whole reason she brought back a deal that was so bad is because she wanted to “Leave” while still keeping ties with the EU that are unacceptable to those who voted Leave aka she wanted the best of both worlds.

So if I was a Brit I would be an Anti-Trump, Luke-Warm on Corbyn, Moderate Labour voting, Comverted Brexiter. Pretty Bi-Polar

[Silent Hunter]

The Brexit vote has become tainted in the same way Trump's election has been with Russia involvement and illegal spending. Also, May is right in that the EU were never going to give us a deal without the backstop - why should they make it easy for us?

May backed Remain in the 2016 campaign, which is why many Leavers are suspicious of her.

[Angel of Death]

How stupid is the DUP? Don't they realize that there is an obvious positive correlation between the hardness of Brexit and the likelihood of a united Ireland?