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Author Topic: UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem  (Read 128862 times)
parochial boy
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« Reply #1625 on: January 15, 2019, 04:04:09 pm »

The DUP will vote to prop up the limpet Prime Minister, because of course.

So aside from wasting nearly a third of the remaining available time, delaying the vote by a month achieved... what exactly?

The plan may be to try again with even less time left and try to get it through via fear alone.

Tea Party tactics there, except emnating from the government.

Yeah. I've been predicting - as a possibility not as a certainty, obviously - this to people in Real Life for about a year now.
See, I though that, but it would seem uncharacteristically... machiavellian for someone who, for most of her career, has given off the aura of being about as perceptive as a pile of bricks.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #1626 on: January 15, 2019, 04:06:36 pm »

The DUP will vote to prop up the limpet Prime Minister, because of course.

So aside from wasting nearly a third of the remaining available time, delaying the vote by a month achieved... what exactly?

The plan may be to try again with even less time left and try to get it through via fear alone.

Tea Party tactics there, except emnating from the government.

Yeah. I've been predicting - as a possibility not as a certainty, obviously - this to people in Real Life for about a year now.
See, I though that, but it would seem uncharacteristically... machiavellian for someone who, for most of her career, has given off the aura of being about as perceptive as a pile of bricks.

May is by no means a talented politician, but even the most incompetent British politician can come up with a plan to save their job/reputations

The question is whether she'll have the time for that to actually work
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« Reply #1627 on: January 15, 2019, 04:13:39 pm »

Just hope all this mess makes it clear to everyone in the European community what an awful idea it is the leave the EU, which is, despite its flaws, the best thing ever happend to the continent.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #1628 on: January 15, 2019, 04:28:26 pm »

The problem for May is that Norway sees the ERG go nuclear (and NCV her) and No-Deal sees Remainer Tories like Boles/Morgan/Grieve do the same. So of course she'll go with 'I can't believe its not a backstop' fudge from the EU which moves about 20 or 30 nameless MPs.

Just hope all this mess makes it clear to everyone in the European community what an awful idea it is the leave the EU, which is, despite its flaws, the best thing ever happend to the continent.

And that the Article 50 process is designed to act as a vice around the balls of any government wanting to leave
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bronz4141
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« Reply #1629 on: January 15, 2019, 04:46:36 pm »

Penny Mourdant would be a good Tory leader and Prime Minister

She is youthful, she could beat Corbyn.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #1630 on: January 15, 2019, 05:00:00 pm »

Just hope all this mess makes it clear to everyone in the European community what an awful idea it is the leave the EU, which is, despite its flaws, the best thing ever happend to the continent.

I also think the EU should agree to just become a Free Trade Agreement rather than a semi-governmental body it seems like at times. I think that would be much better
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coloniac
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« Reply #1631 on: January 15, 2019, 05:15:15 pm »

Just hope all this mess makes it clear to everyone in the European community what an awful idea it is the leave the EU, which is, despite its flaws, the best thing ever happend to the continent.

I also think the EU should agree to just become a Free Trade Agreement rather than a semi-governmental body it seems like at times. I think that would be much better

You have it the wrong way round, the reason it is a semi-governmental body is to protect the FTA. For all the money spent on EU institutions, they probably save consumers much much more by guaranteeing the single market.
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« Reply #1632 on: January 15, 2019, 05:25:16 pm »

Strong and stable just had the worst government defeat ever.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #1633 on: January 15, 2019, 06:20:14 pm »

In an alternate world the DUP would have left the government, guaranteeing  a successful no-confidence motion and labour would hold a 20+ point lead on the Tories. All labour had to do for the alternate world to be a reality was to not make a hardcore anti-semite their leader
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #1634 on: January 15, 2019, 06:27:05 pm »

Penny Mourdant would be a good Tory leader and Prime Minister

She is youthful, she could beat Corbyn.

I've never heard of her
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #1635 on: January 15, 2019, 06:44:13 pm »

Just hope all this mess makes it clear to everyone in the European community what an awful idea it is the leave the EU, which is, despite its flaws, the best thing ever happend to the continent.

I also think the EU should agree to just become a Free Trade Agreement rather than a semi-governmental body it seems like at times. I think that would be much better


You have it the wrong way round, the reason it is a semi-governmental body is to protect the FTA. For all the money spent on EU institutions, they probably save consumers much much more by guaranteeing the single market.


What about NAFTA just for Europe
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Ye Olde Europe
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« Reply #1636 on: January 15, 2019, 07:04:30 pm »

Just hope all this mess makes it clear to everyone in the European community what an awful idea it is the leave the EU, which is, despite its flaws, the best thing ever happend to the continent.

I also think the EU should agree to just become a Free Trade Agreement rather than a semi-governmental body it seems like at times. I think that would be much better


You have it the wrong way round, the reason it is a semi-governmental body is to protect the FTA. For all the money spent on EU institutions, they probably save consumers much much more by guaranteeing the single market.


What about NAFTA just for Europe

But that already exists and is called EFTA.

Originally founded in the early 60s - ironically by the UK among other countries - as sort of an alternative to and competitor for the European Community, the majority of its members eventually decided to switch over to the EC/EU one after another until only Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein remained. Maybe the UK would also rejoin EFTA once it left the EU. But no other EU member states seems to inclined to switch back to EFTA.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2019, 07:18:20 pm by Great Again Again: The Shutdown To End All Shutdowns »Logged
Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #1637 on: January 15, 2019, 07:51:47 pm »

It's absolutely, utterly baffling that May has no intention to resign, and it's even more baffling that the people who voted no are not gonna force her to resign. It's like everyone is deliberately trying to make Brexit as much of an abominable mess as it could conceivably be.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #1638 on: January 15, 2019, 09:46:29 pm »

It's absolutely, utterly baffling that May has no intention to resign, and it's even more baffling that the people who voted no are not gonna force her to resign. It's like everyone is deliberately trying to make Brexit as much of an abominable mess as it could conceivably be.

The only thing the Tories hate more than the status quo is the thought of Prime Minister Corbyn.

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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #1639 on: January 15, 2019, 11:42:45 pm »

It's absolutely, utterly baffling that May has no intention to resign, and it's even more baffling that the people who voted no are not gonna force her to resign. It's like everyone is deliberately trying to make Brexit as much of an abominable mess as it could conceivably be.

The only thing the Tories hate more than the status quo is the thought of Prime Minister Corbyn.



In the US this is similar to what is termed impeachment insurance (ie Nancy Pelosi or even Mike Pence depending on your perspective), in Britain it should be called no-confidence insurance.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #1640 on: January 15, 2019, 11:54:30 pm »

1) What are the realistic odds an early general election gets called in the next half-year?  

To the layman observer, seems not high, despite this debacle, as the conservative MPs logically wouldn't want to all lose their seats.

2) If that happens, and there is no majority again, what are the most likely coalitions/confidence and supply govs?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1641 on: January 16, 2019, 12:18:15 am »

1) What are the realistic odds an early general election gets called in the next half-year?  

To the layman observer, seems not high, despite this debacle, as the conservative MPs logically wouldn't want to all lose their seats.

2) If that happens, and there is no majority again, what are the most likely coalitions/confidence and supply govs?


Chance of election is probably low, but something on my mind for a while is the "true chaos" result that might result from government. Something where it is mathematically impossible for the tories to form a govt (no majority for CON+DUP) but for LAB to form a government they need to bridge the gap between LAB+SNPs softer leave/remain and the DUPs harder leave. Or perhaps its even more complex, perhaps both options are still on the table, but they require the hard-Remain Libs (CON+DUP+LIB or LAB+SNP+LIB+DUP). Thinking of these chaos scenarios is perhaps why another election benefits nobody... except those like JRM who would be happy with the Crash Out scenario which would be the natural product of said chaos.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #1642 on: January 16, 2019, 01:51:20 am »

1) What are the realistic odds an early general election gets called in the next half-year?

In the next 6 months? I would say very high due to the fact that 1) Remainer Tories have said they will resign the whip and collapse the government if it goes for No Deal, 2) the DUP have said they will end the C&S arrangement and bring down the government if it goes for a Brexit which involves the backstop or a different status for Northern Ireland, and 3) Tory Brexiteers will split the party if the government goes for a soft Brexit. So the only two routes for the government, either no dealing or softening the deal, both lose its majority in the Commons.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #1643 on: January 16, 2019, 02:24:56 am »

It's absolutely, utterly baffling that May has no intention to resign, and it's even more baffling that the people who voted no are not gonna force her to resign. It's like everyone is deliberately trying to make Brexit as much of an abominable mess as it could conceivably be.

The only thing the Tories hate more than the status quo is the thought of Prime Minister Corbyn.



Every Government thinks the leader of the opposition is the absolute worse incarnation of what that party can offer
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YL
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« Reply #1644 on: January 16, 2019, 03:39:35 am »

In an alternate world the DUP would have left the government, guaranteeing  a successful no-confidence motion and labour would hold a 20+ point lead on the Tories. All labour had to do for the alternate world to be a reality was to not make a hardcore anti-semite their leader

I can understand why you might have concerns about Corbyn (I do myself to some extent, though I'd much rather have him than Brexiteering Tories) but calling him a "hardcore anti-semite" is ridiculous and does your case no good whatsoever.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #1645 on: January 16, 2019, 03:49:02 am »

In an alternate world the DUP would have left the government, guaranteeing  a successful no-confidence motion and labour would hold a 20+ point lead on the Tories. All labour had to do for the alternate world to be a reality was to not make a hardcore anti-semite their leader

In an Alternate World May never blows her 20 point lead she had one month before election day in 2017. If that happens she wins a landslide and she would have had the mandate she needed
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« Reply #1646 on: January 16, 2019, 09:17:40 am »

In an alternate world the DUP would have left the government, guaranteeing  a successful no-confidence motion and labour would hold a 20+ point lead on the Tories. All labour had to do for the alternate world to be a reality was to not make a hardcore anti-semite their leader

In an Alternate World May never blows her 20 point lead she had one month before election day in 2017. If that happens she wins a landslide and she would have had the mandate she needed

I'm not so sure. She obviously would have kept the majority with a better campaign, and probably increased it a little, but I think people disapproving of Corbyn grudgingly returning to Labour by election day was inevitable. My muother for instance hates Corbyn, but voted Labour in the end because she didn't want to even risk giving May the 400-seat landslide she wanted. The effect of this was inflated by the campaigns, but I think it was always going to be there (hindsight is of course a wonderful thing). It's also something I wouldn't bet too strongly on happening again, given Corbyn's previous year and a half of doing absolutely nothing at all to endear himself to those who didn't like him much and voted for him grudgingly, but since Labour appear to be at a higher starting point it probably won't matter as much.

I will say two things in general:
a) I think an election soon is unlikely
b) If there is an election soon, I would be very surprised if the result differed much from the 2017 one.

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coloniac
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« Reply #1647 on: January 16, 2019, 10:50:55 am »

Just hope all this mess makes it clear to everyone in the European community what an awful idea it is the leave the EU, which is, despite its flaws, the best thing ever happend to the continent.

I also think the EU should agree to just become a Free Trade Agreement rather than a semi-governmental body it seems like at times. I think that would be much better


You have it the wrong way round, the reason it is a semi-governmental body is to protect the FTA. For all the money spent on EU institutions, they probably save consumers much much more by guaranteeing the single market.


What about NAFTA just for Europe

But that already exists and is called EFTA.

Originally founded in the early 60s - ironically by the UK among other countries - as sort of an alternative to and competitor for the European Community, the majority of its members eventually decided to switch over to the EC/EU one after another until only Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein remained. Maybe the UK would also rejoin EFTA once it left the EU. But no other EU member states seems to inclined to switch back to EFTA.

With good reason, because a large part of the problems an FTA association like EFTA or NAFTA faces are to do with Rule of Origin, which is solved by a Customs Union.

Furthermore with common regulatory standards and a CU you can create a much more effective Single Market than with an FTA that recognises mutual recognition among partners. Even the Thatcherite dream of "mutual recognition" still actually implies nation-states can enact arbitrary regulatory laws (acting as Non-Tariff Barriers) that can get a certain product outlawed and favour substitutes that just so happen to be produced in the country.  

With the EU this is solved by having the MEPs here in Brussels regulate on all the environmental and health standards of the products so there is no imbalance across markets.  The price you pay is sovereignty of your own laws of course, as a supranational court has to judge on those common regulatory standards if they are violated (or its legislation has direct effect like in the EU). But the EU can either be painted as the largest failed state/supranational project in the world or the most successful FTA in the world. Going back to Brexit, and how vehemently the trade associations (the fabled "German car companies") were willing to defend EU integrity at the expense of the British market, its clear what perspective they take.

The rushed Euro, EU Enlargement, common foreign policy and the protracted EU army are different issues though, well worth eurosceptic scrutinising.  
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« Reply #1648 on: January 16, 2019, 02:16:44 pm »

Motion of no confidence defeated by 325-306.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #1649 on: January 16, 2019, 02:22:29 pm »

Motion of no confidence defeated by 325-306.

Bugger.
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