UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[rc18]

Labour and Tory MPs in talks over setting up new centrist party

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why not simply join the Lib Dems outright?

For better of for worse the Labour brand is very strong; The logic may be that "Continuity New Labour" may be more successful in pulling away Labour "moderates" rather than simply cannibalising the existing Lib Dem vote.

[Blair]

Labour and Tory MPs in talks over setting up new centrist party

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why not simply join the Lib Dems outright?

They’re mainly social democrats on the economy, whilst supporting more authoritarian social policies- basically the opposite of the the Lib Dem’s.

But yes agree with other postings- this will be a rump of MPs who don’t have much in common beyond having different reasons for hating Corbyn and his project. If 100+  MPs quit then I’d be more open minded about creating a credible party of the centre left but this doesn’t look like anything close to that.

It’s easier for them just to retire in 2022- Chuka is the only one of the group who actually had a cabinet level future

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Newspaper reports have correctly predicted about thirty of the past zero Labour splits. Doesn't mean that nothing will happen - there's a huge amount of strain at present for various reasons - but people need to avoid being credulous.

Anyway, the irony of the present situation is this: if a genuine equivalent of the original SDP were to be formed - a more moderate and small 'l' liberal version of the Labour Party headed by three and a half popular former cabinet ministers formed at a moment of apparent national crisis - it would almost certainly sweep all before it in the current climate; the various structural factors that doomed the SDP are no longer relevant. Trade Unions no longer have any hold over the political imagination or voting habits of the historic Labour electorate, the remarkable grassroots political organisation still possessed by the Conservative Party in the 1980s is long gone, the postwar generation - with its deep sense of loyalty towards Labour and the Tories and its propensity to turn out at extremely high rates - is dead, and the LibDems do not have the cross-class credibility as a protest option that the old Liberals had. The critical part, however, is 'three and a half popular former cabinet ministers' - a couple of callow randoms who are not even household names in their own houses would (probably) not cut through, no matter how widely reviled May and Corbyn are these days.

[DaWN]

It's becoming a bit like Charlie Brown and the football with all this Labour split stuff. It didn't happen the first 834 times it was reported as being imminent, it won't happen the 835th. I maintain that if the people who need to do it had the guts to do it they would have done it a long, long time ago.

In any case, it's probably too late to make a difference about Brexit now, and while such a party would theoretically do very well at the ballot box, remember that we as a country can't have nice things - I can just imagine the voters going 'Well I would vote for your not-awful party, but I'm going to vote for one of the awful two to keep out the other awful one' or something along those lines.

We'll be left with The Awful Twosome as our Prime Ministerial choices for a while yet I'm afraid.

[Blair]

Anyway, the irony of the present situation is this: if a genuine equivalent of the original SDP were to be formed - a more moderate and small 'l' liberal version of the Labour Party headed by three and a half popular former cabinet ministers formed at a moment of apparent national crisis - it would almost certainly sweep all before it in the current climate; the various structural factors that doomed the SDP are no longer relevant. Trade Unions no longer have any hold over the political imagination or voting habits of the historic Labour electorate, the remarkable grassroots political organisation still possessed by the Conservative Party in the 1980s is long gone, the postwar generation - with its deep sense of loyalty towards Labour and the Tories and its propensity to turn out at extremely high rates - is dead, and the LibDems do not have the cross-class credibility as a protest option that the old Liberals had. The critical part, however, is 'three and a half popular former cabinet ministers' - a couple of callow randoms who are not even household names in their own houses would (probably) not cut through, no matter how widely reviled May and Corbyn are these days.

To echo this people shouldn’t forget how volatile the electorate has been- The Yes campaign in Scotland went from something like 25% to 45% in two years, the SNP routed the whole of Scotland in 15, UKIP won a national election in 2014, Labour was taken over by a grassroots leadership campaign, and then managed to flip a campaign on its head (with absolutely insane results in seats that have not flipped for 50 years)

Combine that with the millions of pounds of funding and data in the pro-EU groups, and you’re in for an interesting campaign.

Of course this too applies to som hideous non Faragist pro-Brexit Party.

[Tintrlvr]

Labour and Tory MPs in talks over setting up new centrist party

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why not simply join the Lib Dems outright?

They’re mainly social democrats on the economy, whilst supporting more authoritarian social policies- basically the opposite of the the Lib Dem’s.

But yes agree with other postings- this will be a rump of MPs who don’t have much in common beyond having different reasons for hating Corbyn and his project. If 100+  MPs quit then I’d be more open minded about creating a credible party of the centre left but this doesn’t look like anything close to that.

It’s easier for them just to retire in 2022- Chuka is the only one of the group who actually had a cabinet level future

I had the impression Umunna in particular was very much an economic centrist - I thought he'd have fit in well with the Lib Dems. The others perhaps less so, but as noted they are not prominent. This split was rumored last summer, too, though (with most of the same names), so seems not especially likely to be imminent.

I think strategically even if they were perfectly aligned with the Lib Dems on policy, it would make sense to run separately in an alliance as the SDP and Liberals did rather than as a single party in order to cast the widest net possible.

[DaWN]

The answer to the question 'Why don't they join the Lib Dems?' is pretty simple: they're still toxic to the electorate because of the coalition and even moderate Labour MPs aren't going to forgive easily. Why join a ship that's barely staying afloat and that you hate anyway, when you could build a brand new ship that could achieve far more?

[rc18]

Newspaper reports have correctly predicted about thirty of the past zero Labour splits. Doesn't mean that nothing will happen - there's a huge amount of strain at present for various reasons - but people need to avoid being credulous.

To be fair the murmurings this time seem to be coming from multiple reporters across the spectrum.  Whether the MPs end up bottling it or not, the media have obviously heard things which suggest it's closer to crunch time.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Marcia Williams/Baroness Faulkner, Harold Wilson's
powerful secretary/confidante/advisor/mistress (?) has died.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Marcia Williams/Baroness Faulkner, Harold Wilson's
powerful secretary/confidante/advisor/mistress (?) has died.

RIP FF

[Blair]

Labour and Tory MPs in talks over setting up new centrist party

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why not simply join the Lib Dems outright?

They’re mainly social democrats on the economy, whilst supporting more authoritarian social policies- basically the opposite of the the Lib Dem’s.

But yes agree with other postings- this will be a rump of MPs who don’t have much in common beyond having different reasons for hating Corbyn and his project. If 100+  MPs quit then I’d be more open minded about creating a credible party of the centre left but this doesn’t look like anything close to that.

It’s easier for them just to retire in 2022- Chuka is the only one of the group who actually had a cabinet level future

I had the impression Umunna in particular was very much an economic centrist - I thought he'd have fit in well with the Lib Dems. The others perhaps less so, but as noted they are not prominent. This split was rumored last summer, too, though (with most of the same names), so seems not especially likely to be imminent.

I think strategically even if they were perfectly aligned with the Lib Dems on policy, it would make sense to run separately in an alliance as the SDP and Liberals did rather than as a single party in order to cast the widest net possible.

He was Ed Milibands business secretary and wasn’t even one of the right wingers in the shadow cabinet back then who were worried about the deficit.

For non U.K. and non labour members don’t underestimate how much Labour members are repulsed by the Lib Dem’s- this has existed long before 2010

[vileplume]

Labour and Tory MPs in talks over setting up new centrist party

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why not simply join the Lib Dems outright?

They’re mainly social democrats on the economy, whilst supporting more authoritarian social policies- basically the opposite of the the Lib Dem’s.

But yes agree with other postings- this will be a rump of MPs who don’t have much in common beyond having different reasons for hating Corbyn and his project. If 100+  MPs quit then I’d be more open minded about creating a credible party of the centre left but this doesn’t look like anything close to that.

It’s easier for them just to retire in 2022- Chuka is the only one of the group who actually had a cabinet level future

I had the impression Umunna in particular was very much an economic centrist - I thought he'd have fit in well with the Lib Dems. The others perhaps less so, but as noted they are not prominent. This split was rumored last summer, too, though (with most of the same names), so seems not especially likely to be imminent.

I think strategically even if they were perfectly aligned with the Lib Dems on policy, it would make sense to run separately in an alliance as the SDP and Liberals did rather than as a single party in order to cast the widest net possible.

He was Ed Milibands business secretary and wasn’t even one of the right wingers in the shadow cabinet back then who were worried about the deficit.

For non U.K. and non labour members don’t underestimate how much Labour members are repulsed by the Lib Dem’s- this has existed long before 2010

It's apparently quite common for Labour activists to hate the Lib Dems more than the Tories. Apparently the way they see it is at least the Tories stand for something however much they disagree with their ideology, whilst the Lib Dems are seen as dishonest and duplicitous willing to say anything to win votes. It's the same reason many on the Labour left actually had a grudging respect for Thatcher (who they saw as at least honest and willing to stand up for her beliefs) whilst they never had any respect whatsoever for Blair (who they saw as a charlatan). Thatcher was actually friendly with militant supporting Liverpool Labour MP Eric Heffer for example and actually attended his memorial service after he died.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Paul Flynn, the MP for Newport West since 1987 and an entertaining and endearingly cranky fixture of public life in South Wales, has died. He was 84 and had been seriously ill for some time.

[MAINEiac4434]

Paul Flynn, the MP for Newport West since 1987 and an entertaining and endearingly cranky fixture of public life in South Wales, has died. He was 84 and had been seriously ill for some time.

Flynn was Shadow House Leader as recently as 2016.

RIP.

[Silent Hunter]

Rest in Peace.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To be fair the murmurings this time seem to be coming from multiple reporters across the spectrum.  Whether the MPs end up bottling it or not, the media have obviously heard things which suggest it's closer to crunch time.

Whatever happens this hasn't been handled particularly well by anyone, at least up until this point: too many false starts and rumours on the one hand (not great for credibility), the fact that it has reached this far and not been prevented on the other (as we all know the reality of the electoral system is that even a small splinter is not good for the mother party). But then such has been the increase in political tensions across the board with Brexit looming, maybe that's understandable on both sides, I don't know.

[DaWN]

Well, two days after I said it probably wouldn't happen, it happens. I should start calling myself NostraDaWNmus.

I'm glad I'll have someone to vote for without holding my nose, but I do worry about the long-term prospects of this new party. I feel people seriously underrate to embedded partisanship in this country, even with the current two leaders of the main parties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, two days after I said it probably wouldn't happen, it happens. I should start calling myself NostraDaWNmus.

I'm glad I'll have someone to vote for without holding my nose, but I do worry about the long-term prospects of this new party. I feel people seriously underrate to embedded partisanship in this country, even with the current two leaders of the main parties.

It might just be mass whip-resigning rather than a new party, of course. Though the one can obviously function as a precursor to the other.

[DaWN]

Well, two days after I said it probably wouldn't happen, it happens. I should start calling myself NostraDaWNmus.

I'm glad I'll have someone to vote for without holding my nose, but I do worry about the long-term prospects of this new party. I feel people seriously underrate to embedded partisanship in this country, even with the current two leaders of the main parties.

It might just be mass whip-resigning rather than a new party, of course.

Well, yes, but let's hope for everyone's sake that isn't the case, as that would just be downright embarrassing going to all this trouble for something so insubstantial.

[parochial boy]

Question is which, if any, of the 7(?) are still MPs after the next general election.

[DaWN]

Well, two days after I said it probably wouldn't happen, it happens. I should start calling myself NostraDaWNmus.

I'm glad I'll have someone to vote for without holding my nose, but I do worry about the long-term prospects of this new party. I feel people seriously underrate to embedded partisanship in this country, even with the current two leaders of the main parties.

It might just be mass whip-resigning rather than a new party, of course.

Well, yes, but let's hope for everyone's sake that isn't the case, as that would just be downright embarrassing going to all this trouble for something so insubstantial.

For f!cks sake

[Antonio the Sixth]

who care

[DavidB.]

Cringe @ "policies that are evidence-based, not led by ideology"

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1097440644082077696

[Intell]

Eagerly awaiting their defeat in 2017. The blaritie scum are gone!

[DaWN]

Well, it's disappointing but it's something. At the very least it shows the Senile Communist and his puppet master that not everyone agrees with their little Englander hard Brexit. It might even force them to try and actually oppose the government on the most important issue of the day, although let's not get ahead of ourselves.