UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Btw the list has been leaked. It would probably breach the Forum Terms because it is libel, but it is fairly easy to find if you wish.

Has a few ... surprising names, especially the two female cabinet ministers  having affairs with the same MP (apparently) and a few reported gays that I weren't aware of (I guess the old stereotype still holds) but I don't read that much Westminster gossip.

[Lumine]

That is one hell of a shocking list.

[mvd10]

damn

[Kingpoleon]

Hey, guys, if Gove challenges May with the backing of Osborne(a friend of Gove's now, supposedly), among others such as Johnson, Hammond, and Rudd, would Michael Gove have a good chance of winning?

[Phony Moderate]

Sir Michael Fallon has resigned as Defence Secretary.

[mvd10]

And Fallon was supposed to be a safe pair of hands lol (no pun intended).

Hey, guys, if Gove challenges May with the backing of Osborne(a friend of Gove's now, supposedly), among others such as Johnson, Hammond, and Rudd, would Michael Gove have a good chance of winning?

Not happening lol. Nobody trusts Gove anymore after he brutally backstabbed Johnson (why the flying f**k would Johnson even support Gove?) and the persons you are mentioning probably have a better chance challenging May themselves instead of letting Gove do it. But nobody really cares about Osborne anymore in the Conservative Party, Johnson isn't going to back the man who killed his chances to be PM in 2016 (and he wants to be leader himself) and Rudd is fairly loyal to May (and she also wants to be PM herself). I'm not sure where Hammond's loyalties lie, but I doubt that he would support a rebellion against May. And if they really wanted to get rid of May they'd find someone more suitable than Gove. Maybe Gove can be the fall guy that forces May to resign and triggers a leadership contest, but he wouldn't win the actual contest in that case. The fall guy never wins.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Sir Michael Fallon has resigned as Defence Secretary.

Is he resigning from Parliament as well? If he does how safe is his seat?

[mvd10]

Sir Michael Fallon has resigned as Defence Secretary.

Is he resigning from Parliament as well? If he does how safe is his seat?

I'm not sure if he will resign from Parliament, but his seat is a safe Conservative seat.

[mileslunn]

Sir Michael Fallon has resigned as Defence Secretary.

Is he resigning from Parliament as well? If he does how safe is his seat?

I'm not sure if he will resign from Parliament, but his seat is a safe Conservative seat.

He got over 60% last time so even if the Tories were reduced to only 50 seats, his would be amongst them.  That being said if Labour really wants to help out, their best option would be to not run a candidate and instead endorse the Liberal Democrat candidate although even the Liberal Democrats are highly unlikely to win his seat.  1923 is the last time it elected a non-Tory MP and that was a Liberal.

[Blair]

FWIW my uncle lives in Fallon's seat and it's not at all the type of seat that the tories would lose; even in a by-election, with a struggling economy.

I can't see Labour ever standing down for the Liberal Democrats; I mean Labour came ahead of the Liberal Democrats in 2015 and 2017!!! I had to actually check, but it reminded me the assumption that most people have (aka the liberals are always going to be 2nd in seats like this) died when the coalition did.

Does anyone know how many Blairites are still left or have most of them moved on?  I don't mean MPs who were members during the Blair government, but rather people who were strongly supportive of Tony Blair's agenda.  In particular are there any pro-war Labour MPs who voted for Iraq still there?

Saw this unanswered, and thought I'd bite.

I'd guess in the PLP there are about 20-30 actual 'Blairites'. In the sense of being pro-European, economically on the right of the party, and hawkish on foreign affairs (and voted for David Miliband/Liz Kendall)

In fact if I actually counted the new intake in PLP it would probably be less. There's a lot of reasons; general churn (there's been three elections since Blair was last leader) lack of government chances to keep the more 'talented' lot interested (James Purnell, David Miliband, Alan Milburn, Alan Johnson are all people who now enjoy various roles outside of the Commons) and the drift in the party.

Ironically the old Brownite faction of the party is probably the strongest in terms of pure numbers (and was the faction that backed Smith over Eagle in the 2016 chaos) and has more MPs remaining who voted for Iraq.

The Blairite faction was dead in May 2015 when Chukka dropped out, and they split between supporting Burnham,(Falconer, Blunkett etc) Cooper (Alan Johnson) and Kendall. I could write a lot more about how the actual right of Labour (of which even I don't identity with) has been unpopular for years, has a lack of money, a lack of talent and no real support in the PLP.

[Lord Halifax]

I could write a lot more about how the actual right of Labour (of which even I don't identity with) has been unpopular for years, has a lack of money, a lack of talent and no real support in the PLP.

Please do.

[mileslunn]

The Blairite faction was dead in May 2015 when Chukka dropped out, and they split between supporting Burnham,(Falconer, Blunkett etc) Cooper (Alan Johnson) and Kendall. I could write a lot more about how the actual right of Labour (of which even I don't identity with) has been unpopular for years, has a lack of money, a lack of talent and no real support in the PLP.

While the Blairite faction is controversial, wouldn't the party benefit from moving towards the centre.  They did well in bringing out younger voters, but under Corbyn they had one of their worst showings ever amongst seniors and as long as seniors massively vote against Labour it will be tough to get 326 seats.  Maybe a plurality, but if the party could get back up into the high 20s instead of only 20% amongst seniors that would be enough to win provided they maintain their millennial support and I suspect a more moderate Labour could bring some of those back.

Also there is voter efficiency.  Corbyn may have done as well in votes as Blair did, but he tended to run up the margins in the urban core areas while outside of the main cities didn't perform as well as Blair except for safe Tory ridings where Blair did worse but they weren't going to win anyways.  Otherwise a more moderate one might be able to win back constituencies like Copeland, Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, Stoke on Trent South, Walsall North, Nuneaton, Mansfield, Derbyshire North East, and be more competitive in the Kent constituencies such as Dartford and Rainham and Gillingham which Blair was able to win but Corbyn lost badly.  Otherwise in a lot of the smaller town/suburban constituencies Blair did better.  Of the urban ones, there aren't that many left for picking up and the demographics in those such as Cities of London and Westminster are not exactly Labour friendly.

Thus wouldn't the party benefit with more Third way types while at the same time still having a strong Corbynite wing?  Corbyn may have got over 40% of the popular vote, but so did the Tories whereas under Blair the Tories never got over 1/3 of the vote.  Now with the collapse of the LibDems that might be possible, but if Labour wants to get a majority they either have to crack the 45% mark which will be tough or push the Tories down to around 36-37% which with the collapse of UKIP and LibDems will be tough as well.

[Phony Moderate]

Labour is led by Corbyn but it is by no means a Corbynite party as a whole. The manifesto this year was committed to renewing Trident (the classic left/right dividing line issue in the party) for example.

[mileslunn]

Labour is led by Corbyn but it is by no means a Corbynite party as a whole. The manifesto this year was committed to renewing Trident (the classic left/right dividing line issue in the party) for example.

True enough although on some things like re-nationalizing rail, water, and utilities clearly favoured the left side although interestingly enough polls show most Brits want those re-nationalized, but perhaps the cost might be the one deterrent.  Abolishing tuition fees also comes from the left side at least compared to recently although interestingly enough the Liberal Democrats in 2010 and Tories in 2005 advocated this position so not totally radical, at least not in UK (in Canada and the US, abolishing tuition fees is a radical position).  In terms of raising corporate taxes and taxes on the top 5%, the former was just putting it up to levels in 2010 while latter goes further than Blair went (top rate was 40% under him vs. the current 45%), but in line with both Brown and Miliband who favoured a top rate of 50% (Corbyn was vague here so possible he wanted to raise it further, certainly he could got as high as 55% and still not be in the highest in EU, although 60% as Caroline Lucas advocated would make UK the highest in the EU unless you include payroll taxes as a few go above that when that is included).

I think his biggest obstacle was more his past positions which were a lot more radical vs. platform which while left wing was not totally offside the majority of population.  In the last decade due to stagnant growth, many left wing policies that fell out of style in the 70s are starting to rebound in public support (ironic he won big amongst those who don't remember the 70s while did poorly amongst those who do).  In the US you saw a similar phenomenon with Bernie Sanders who most older voters found too radical, but was very popular with younger voters.

[Blair]

I mean I can't see a single Labour MP from the right of the party who would be able to win seats like Copeland. I can't remember who said it on this thread but there's a massive difference between being a moderate in Labour, and being a successful PM. I mean these seats where moving away from Labour in 2015.

Blair's strength wasn't just because he moved the party's policy on income tax; it was because he was able to explain why that was necessary, and what else he was going to do.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Otherwise a more moderate one might be able to win back constituencies like Copeland, Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, Stoke on Trent South, Walsall North, Nuneaton, Mansfield, Derbyshire North East...

Most of these constituencies have very little in common.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I mean I can't see a single Labour MP from the right of the party who would be able to win seats like Copeland.

Are there many constituencies in which the main employer is a nuclear reprocessing station? O/c the seat would have been held absent the by-election and was nearly taken back anyway...

[Blair]

I mean I can't see a single Labour MP from the right of the party who would be able to win seats like Copeland.

Are there many constituencies in which the main employer is a nuclear reprocessing station? O/c the seat would have been held absent the by-election and was nearly taken back anyway...

I know that Labour's candidate was fiercely pro-Sellafield (if that was the name of it?), as she was married to an employer and seemed to spend a lot of energy talking about it. But Ofc that was drowned out by unpopularity of Corbyn back then.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well, May's appointment of Williamson has gone down well...

Quote an anonymous Tory MP: he is a "self-serving c**nt". It strikes me as the sort of overly ambitious self-promotion that could potentially kill a career.

[mileslunn]

I wouldn't say Copeland is totally lost as Labour almost won it and using a uniform swing it is one they would need to pick up just to tie the Tories in seats forget about actually winning especially a majority so using the current polls right now it's quite possible Labour could regain it.  Nonetheless that is the problem I was mentioning with Corbyn and seems to be a problem with progressive parties in many countries.  Do well in the urban cores but struggle in the hinterlands whereas back when Third Way progressives were leaders they tended to do better in the hinterlands winning the above mentioned constituencies.  Now perhaps maybe the hinterlands have permanently swung to the right, but that is then a long term problem for the left.  Although one notable exception is Justin Trudeau in Canada who did win many suburban and even some rural constituencies although Canada is very different than the UK and it remains to be seen if he can hold those as Obama in 2008 also won many hinterland areas, but gradually they swung away and by 2016 they were pretty much all lost to Trump. 

My reasoning for thinking a more centrist but highly charismatic (if there is such, Sadiq Khan is the only one I can think of top of mind) could win is being more centrist would allow them to do better amongst seniors which Corbyn did horrible amongst and more charismatic would allow them to still bring out millennials in big numbers.  Otherwise Labour to succeed needs to find their own Justin Trudeau or Barack Obama who both fit the bill of more moderate than Corbyn but charismatic so could bring out younger voters in droves without scaring away seniors. 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah if there's one thing you should know about Sadiq Khan is that he is beloved amongst elderly people in the 'hinterlands'.

[Lord Halifax]

Well, May's appointment of Williamson has gone down well...

Quote an anonymous Tory MP: he is a "self-serving c**nt". It strikes me as the sort of overly ambitious self-promotion that could potentially kill a career.

Lets hope so.

[IceAgeComing]

In the most respectful manner possible: it is incredibly stupid to think that the Muslim Mayor of London Sadiq Khan (who I actually like!) is someone that's going to appeal to old folk in "the hinterlands" - which isn't really a useful description for a fair few of the seats on that list; certainly not in comparison to many, many other seats that Labour still hold.  Indeed; when you look at the actual election results bar a few areas (the West Midlands outside Birmingham and bits of the North East) that swung to the Tories generally; most of the country showed an overall swing to Labour and the seats gained by the Tories were oddities that had other factors to explain them.

[parochial boy]

OK, I've got to ask, What exactly has David Davis done to give the impression that he would somehow be capable of running the country?

[Silent Hunter]

Kelvin Hopkins (MP for Luton North) suspended by Labour

Apparently sexual harassment allegations.