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Author Topic: UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem  (Read 16301 times)
New Canadaland
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« Reply #25 on: June 10, 2017, 09:54:24 pm »
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Who were the voters who didn't support Labour in 2015 but did this time?
I'd categorized Labour's new voters into 4 groups:
1) New voters, especially the young, who had much higher turnout.
2) Voters that voted UKIP in 2015 but voted Labour before that, especially in Northern England and Wales.
3) Hardcore Tory remainers who didn't just vote remain but were committed to the EU and internationalism.
4) Strategic voters whose first preference is Liberal Democrat or Green but voted Labour to stop the Tories.
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« Reply #26 on: June 10, 2017, 11:05:53 pm »
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Going back the boundary things very quickly - yes, Wales has more seats that its entitled to.  That was an intentional malapportionment created when Wales did not have the Assembly in order to give it a bigger say in UK politics - Scotland had the same thing until 2005.  It was something created a long time ago - before Labour existed, I'm pretty sure.  When the Assembly gained primary legislative powers the plan has been to move towards equality for everywhere in the UK: had the Tories not made the decision to tamper with the rules that the boundary commission use in order to gain a political advantage (and mean that the boundaries drawn are actually worse; since the commission don't have the leeway that they need to produce good seats in a lot of places) then we'd have had a review by now and that discrepency would be fixed.  As it is, the 2012 review was killed by the Liberals because of the Tories deciding not to do Lords reform, and the current review will most likely be killed by the DUP since the Northern Ireland draft seats are TERRIBLE not just for them, but for Unionists more widely.

The sensible thing to do would be to move towards a compromise set of rules (650 seats, 10% threshold would work; the latter is basically as many seats as we have now, the latter is a threshold between the old one and the new one) and let a review go through - the involvement of all parties in the creation of new rules would give the commission's next review a mandate that the Zombie review and the current one did not have.
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« Reply #27 on: June 11, 2017, 03:13:59 am »
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Amazing how there are two parliaments that are hung where DUP is critical, the UK parliament and the Northern Ireland assembly, but they aren't negotiating today because it's a Sunday. Quite a coalition partner for Theresa "Strong and Stable" May.
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« Reply #28 on: June 12, 2017, 12:21:14 am »
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Going back the boundary things very quickly - yes, Wales has more seats that its entitled to.  That was an intentional malapportionment created when Wales did not have the Assembly in order to give it a bigger say in UK politics - Scotland had the same thing until 2005.  It was something created a long time ago - before Labour existed, I'm pretty sure.  When the Assembly gained primary legislative powers the plan has been to move towards equality for everywhere in the UK: had the Tories not made the decision to tamper with the rules that the boundary commission use in order to gain a political advantage (and mean that the boundaries drawn are actually worse; since the commission don't have the leeway that they need to produce good seats in a lot of places) then we'd have had a review by now and that discrepency would be fixed.  As it is, the 2012 review was killed by the Liberals because of the Tories deciding not to do Lords reform, and the current review will most likely be killed by the DUP since the Northern Ireland draft seats are TERRIBLE not just for them, but for Unionists more widely.

The sensible thing to do would be to move towards a compromise set of rules (650 seats, 10% threshold would work; the latter is basically as many seats as we have now, the latter is a threshold between the old one and the new one) and let a review go through - the involvement of all parties in the creation of new rules would give the commission's next review a mandate that the Zombie review and the current one did not have.

Ugh, disgusting that the Tories were trying to interfere with the commission's work for political gain. I thought UK parties were at least above this kind of cheating. Glad that this election threw a wrench into their plans.
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« Reply #29 on: June 13, 2017, 01:42:00 pm »
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John Major wants May to pull out of DUP deal
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« Reply #30 on: June 13, 2017, 05:59:26 pm »
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I can't imagine why Major doesn't want May climbing into bed with the Ulster Volunteer Force
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« Reply #31 on: June 13, 2017, 09:46:33 pm »
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Considering Ulster nationalism and especially the DUP/FPCoU/UVF is very Scottish I'm really surprised the SNP manages to sustain such an ambiguous position on the matter. Do Scottish nationalists don't care anymore for Ulster? It used to be a stable way to get Scots to vote Tory
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« Reply #32 on: June 14, 2017, 05:43:01 am »
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London fire: Six killed as Grenfell Tower engulfed

Quote
Six people have been confirmed dead after a huge fire raged through the night at a west London tower block, and police expect that number to rise.

Eyewitnesses described people trapped in the burning Grenfell Tower, in north Kensington, screaming for help and yelling for their children to be saved.

Firefighters rescued "large numbers", but London Mayor Sadiq Khan said "a lot" of people were unaccounted for.

The 24-storey block, which is still on fire, looks at risk of collapsing.

During the night, eyewitnesses said they saw lights - thought to be mobile phones or torches - flashing at the top of the block of flats, and trapped residents coming to their windows - some holding children.

More than 50 people are being treated in hospital, London Ambulance Service says.

Commander Stuart Cundy, of the Metropolitan Police said: "I can confirm six fatalities at this time but this figure is likely to rise during what will be a complex recovery operation over a number of days."

He said it was likely to be some time before police could identify the victims, adding that it was too early to speculate on the cause of the fire.







http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-40269625
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« Reply #33 on: June 14, 2017, 12:35:36 pm »
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Tim Farron has resigned as Lib Dem leader.
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« Reply #34 on: June 14, 2017, 01:20:55 pm »
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Who were the voters who didn't support Labour in 2015 but did this time?
I'd categorized Labour's new voters into 4 groups:
1) New voters, especially the young, who had much higher turnout.
2) Voters that voted UKIP in 2015 but voted Labour before that, especially in Northern England and Wales.
3) Hardcore Tory remainers who didn't just vote remain but were committed to the EU and internationalism.
4) Strategic voters whose first preference is Liberal Democrat or Green but voted Labour to stop the Tories.

With a 4a addendum, voters whose first choice has always been Labour but who voted Lib Dem tactically in 2015 in certain seats where the Lib Dems had incumbents or were a close second to the Tories in 2010.
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« Reply #35 on: June 14, 2017, 02:37:16 pm »
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Tim Farron has resigned as Lib Dem leader.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40281300

Sad That's too bad. I liked him.
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« Reply #36 on: June 14, 2017, 02:40:24 pm »
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Considering Ulster nationalism and especially the DUP/FPCoU/UVF is very Scottish I'm really surprised the SNP manages to sustain such an ambiguous position on the matter. Do Scottish nationalists don't care anymore for Ulster? It used to be a stable way to get Scots to vote Tory

The SNP wants nothing to do with Ulster unionism, or NI in general.

Remnants of the old fashioned Orange Order unionism still exists in parts of Western Scotland, but the Scottish Tories have long since distanced themselves from it. Unlike NI modern Scotland is secular/post-Christian and fairly liberal.
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« Reply #37 on: June 14, 2017, 03:36:46 pm »
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the election results quite clearly show that a divide still exists between traditional protestant areas and traditional catholic ones - the Tory success in Lanark and Hamilton East suggests that very strongly, as does Labour's regain of lots of traditional working class areas which have a traditional catholic history.  The locals also show it - right down to the local authorities where the sectarian divide was Catholic=Labour, Protestant=SNP...
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« Reply #38 on: June 14, 2017, 05:16:48 pm »
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the election results quite clearly show that a divide still exists between traditional protestant areas and traditional catholic ones - the Tory success in Lanark and Hamilton East suggests that very strongly, as does Labour's regain of lots of traditional working class areas which have a traditional catholic history.  The locals also show it - right down to the local authorities where the sectarian divide was Catholic=Labour, Protestant=SNP...

The SNP strength in traditionally Catholic (= Irish) areas is yet another reason why they would never support NI unionism and/or their "Ulster Scots brethren". The idea of Scottish Nationalists being friendly towards the DUP et al is ridiculous. I once interviewed Ian Wilson, who was then the Grand Master of the Orange Order in Scotland, and he lamented the Scottish Tories had abandoned them -"they had a large voting block in Western Scotland", and said he thought most of their members now voted Labour (it was about 7-8 years ago).
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #39 on: June 14, 2017, 08:32:32 pm »
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well for Westminster elections the whole Protestant/Catholic thing stopped really being particularly relevant in the late 60s or early 70s - I mean I imagine that the hardcore Orange vote was probably Tory for a long time but pretty much every working class seat in Scotland went Labour - the ones in the central belt held by the Tories were broadly affluent middle class places (EastRen, Glasgow Cathcart was this until the construction of new estates caused by slum clearage swung the seat towards Labour, Glasgow Hillhead before the university vote went strongly Labour/Liberal; they also often had a few Ayrshire seats as well) which would also go Tory in England - I think that this also applied for Edinburgh as well.  There are sectarian divides in some local councils, but they often are localised and not always consistent, the collapse of the Tories in Working Class Scotland sometimes meant that it disappeared entirely, and sometimes the SNP became the proxy for the Tories (although never encouraged by the national party, really).
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« Reply #40 on: June 14, 2017, 10:31:06 pm »
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I have to imagine Ulster nationalism died out as a cause for Scottish nationalists around the time Rangers finally started signing Catholic players
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« Reply #41 on: June 15, 2017, 06:53:46 am »
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I have to imagine Ulster nationalism died out as a cause for Scottish nationalists around the time Rangers finally started signing Catholic players

You are mixing two things. The sectarian culture that thrives among some Rangers fans isn't Scottish nationalist, but British unionist ("loyalist").

In Glasgow Celtic fans (and other Catholics) are significantly more likely to be SNP supporters than Rangers fans.
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« Reply #42 on: June 15, 2017, 07:16:21 am »
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I have to imagine Ulster nationalism died out as a cause for Scottish nationalists around the time Rangers finally started signing Catholic players

You are mixing two things. The sectarian culture that thrives among some Rangers fans isn't Scottish nationalist, but British unionist ("loyalist").

In Glasgow Celtic fans (and other Catholics) are significantly more likely to be SNP supporters than Rangers fans.
Considering each match starts with Rule Britannia they were awfully quite during the referendum
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« Reply #43 on: June 15, 2017, 08:04:56 am »
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I have to imagine Ulster nationalism died out as a cause for Scottish nationalists around the time Rangers finally started signing Catholic players

You are mixing two things. The sectarian culture that thrives among some Rangers fans isn't Scottish nationalist, but British unionist ("loyalist").

In Glasgow Celtic fans (and other Catholics) are significantly more likely to be SNP supporters than Rangers fans.
Considering each match starts with Rule Britannia they were awfully quite during the referendum

Your point? (I assume you mean quiet?)
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« Reply #44 on: June 15, 2017, 10:56:49 am »
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News sources now say there could be "hundreds" dead in the burned-down apartment tower, because several hundred are still missing ...
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« Reply #45 on: June 15, 2017, 11:20:14 am »

Amazing how there are two parliaments that are hung where DUP is critical, the UK parliament and the Northern Ireland assembly, but they aren't negotiating today because it's a Sunday. Quite a coalition partner for Theresa "Strong and Stable" May.

Heh, if the UK parliament had to follow Northern Irish model, May would be Prime Minister and Corbyn Deputy Prime Minister, with identical powers.
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« Reply #46 on: June 15, 2017, 01:22:56 pm »
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News sources now say there could be "hundreds" dead in the burned-down apartment tower, because several hundred are still missing ...

This is horrendous, and it's also seriously scary, because there are quite a lot of these re-clad tower blocks around in UK cities; I don't know whether the same materials were used.  It was also predicted by a residents' action group who were worried about fire safety specifically in that tower.
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« Reply #47 on: June 15, 2017, 01:29:48 pm »

May:
Favourable: 29% (-13)
Unfavourable: 63% (+16)

Theresa May: from the new Iron Lady to RL Henry Collingridge.
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« Reply #48 on: June 15, 2017, 02:40:40 pm »
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May:
Favourable: 29% (-13)
Unfavourable: 63% (+16)

Theresa May: from the new Iron Lady to RL Henry Collingridge.

I just pictured Gove as Francis Urquhart because of that. Damn, that's a scary thought.
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« Reply #49 on: June 15, 2017, 02:42:03 pm »

May:
Favourable: 29% (-13)
Unfavourable: 63% (+16)

Theresa May: from the new Iron Lady to RL Henry Collingridge.

I just pictured Gove as Francis Urquhart because of that. Damn, that's a scary thought.

Boris Johnson is a good mental fit for Patrick Woolton.
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