UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[mileslunn]

In the most respectful manner possible: it is incredibly stupid to think that the Muslim Mayor of London Sadiq Khan (who I actually like!) is someone that's going to appeal to old folk in "the hinterlands" - which isn't really a useful description for a fair few of the seats on that list; certainly not in comparison to many, many other seats that Labour still hold.  Indeed; when you look at the actual election results bar a few areas (the West Midlands outside Birmingham and bits of the North East) that swung to the Tories generally; most of the country showed an overall swing to Labour and the seats gained by the Tories were oddities that had other factors to explain them.

I agree being a Muslim mayor could be an issue, mind you everybody said Obama being an African-American would be an issue yet look at how well he did in the Midwest compared to Clinton, Kerry, or Gore.  Clinton lost most of it, Gore and Kerry barely win, while Obama handidly won both times and not just in the cities, but many rural areas.  And he also has a Muslim sounding name too so maybe a bad comparison but the fact it worked for Obama who Khan can somewhat be compared to is relevant.  Now if Britain had their own Justin Trudeau they could probably win in those areas, but not sure they do at least not at the moment.  Some of the younger Labour MPs maybe in a decade or so.

[mileslunn]

Kelvin Hopkins (MP for Luton North) suspended by Labour

Apparently sexual harassment allegations.

This will probably help the government last longer as I am not sure those would support any non-confidence motion.  At the moment my understanding is the opposition parties need to pick up six seats in by-elections to be able to bring down the government as the Conservatives + DUP = 327 seats and at 325 seats the speaker would likely break the tie in their favour (former Conservative and Denison's rules say you vote to keep debate going) while Sinn Fein has an abstentionist policy so really only 643 occupied seats so 327 by Conservatives + DUP, 316 by other parties so picking up six would change it to 322 opposition to 321 Conservatives + DUP.

[Kingpoleon]

And Fallon was supposed to be a safe pair of hands lol (no pun intended).

Hey, guys, if Gove challenges May with the backing of Osborne(a friend of Gove's now, supposedly), among others such as Johnson, Hammond, and Rudd, would Michael Gove have a good chance of winning?

Not happening lol. Nobody trusts Gove anymore after he brutally backstabbed Johnson (why the flying f**k would Johnson even support Gove?) and the persons you are mentioning probably have a better chance challenging May themselves instead of letting Gove do it. But nobody really cares about Osborne anymore in the Conservative Party, Johnson isn't going to back the man who killed his chances to be PM in 2016 (and he wants to be leader himself) and Rudd is fairly loyal to May (and she also wants to be PM herself). I'm not sure where Hammond's loyalties lie, but I doubt that he would support a rebellion against May. And if they really wanted to get rid of May they'd find someone more suitable than Gove. Maybe Gove can be the fall guy that forces May to resign and triggers a leadership contest, but he wouldn't win the actual contest in that case. The fall guy never wins.

Bravo! Green, Hammond, Rudd, Johnson, and Davis are never going to agree on a candidate to overthrow May, and without all of them uniting to ensure she's taken out - either by agreeing on a candidate they will all endorse, or at least none of them will endorse someone else against - May can play them off one another handily. In my opinion, their best bet would be to get Elizabeth Truss or Greg Hands, or someone else low in the Cabinet, to run against May and then force out all the opponents. It would weaken May enough to where one of the upper Ministers could run.

[Blair]

FWIW a minor talented minister like Truss won't waste her career to allow someone else to become leader; as explained here you can't do stalking horse challenges anymore, you need the leader to quit or lose a no-confidence vote

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nonetheless that is the problem I was mentioning with Corbyn and seems to be a problem with progressive parties in many countries.  Do well in the urban cores but struggle in the hinterlands

This was very much the narrative heavily promoted in the media and by most professional Political Scientists before the General Election. But this is literally not what happened: Labour saw substantial increases in support in most postindustrial constituencies (in most cases following on from similar increases in support in 2015, which is why the increases were smaller than average if still substantial; note that in South Wales - where results were poor in 2015 - there were some of the largest increases in support nationally that were not linked with the general youth surge etc. In the Britain of 2017 can you get more hinterland than Merthyr Tydfil?), with the exception of a very particular part of the East Midlands where there were local factors - immigration being the main one - at play. And even there it was a case of small increases rather than a loss of support.

It's also worth noting that one of the most striking features of recent British elections had been the collapse of the Labour Party's old rural working class vote; even the demise of the Liberal Democrats (where many of those votes had headed) in 2015 did not reverse this. 2017 saw a dramatic turnaround on this front, with much of that horrendous electoral damage suddenly healed (at least for the moment). In practical terms - given FPTP and the fact that most of these seats wouldn't even be close in a national Labour landslide! - the main impact of this is just to boost Labour's national vote share, but I mention it here because few facts about the last General Election contradict #thenarrative more than that one.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

and bits of the North East

Note that the North East saw a much larger than average swing to Labour in 2015. I.e. it has no place in this #narrative.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know that Labour's candidate was fiercely pro-Sellafield (if that was the name of it?), as she was married to an employer and seemed to spend a lot of energy talking about it. But Ofc that was drowned out by unpopularity of Corbyn back then.

Sellafield is why it was lost (and badly) - the usual by-election gain afterglow why it wasn't taken back. But it's a very strange constituency; one of the highest average incomes outside the South East. Also important to remember that on present boundaries it would have been lost in 1983 and 1987 even with Jack Cunningham's substantial personal following.

[mileslunn]

I guess I was comparing more to Tony Blair's 2005 win as you saw him win in a number of mixed urban/rural constituencies in Kent, Staffordshire as well as East Midlands where Corbyn not only lost, but wasn't close.  Likewise the Liberal Democrats won many rural ones in the Southwest and most of those the Tories got over 50%.  Likewise if you look at the margins in the core urban ones, Corbyn got over 70% in several constituencies and over 80% in a few whereas I don't think under Blair they ever cracked the 80% mark in any and only in his first win in 1997 did you see them getting over 70% in multiple constituencies not subsequent ones.  You saw the same with Hillary Clinton which is why she won the popular vote despite losing the electoral college.  Also it seems every time the boundaries change, they tend to favour the Tories as I am guessing the suburban areas just beyond the large cities are the fastest growing and popular seaside towns for retirees.

[Blair]

I can't be bothered to link to the various headlines but there's a good deal of juicy stuff in tomorrow papers (to the extent I might get up to watch Marr tomorrow morning for the paper summary) Fallon apparently lunged at a journalist; which is why he was sacked, the police found dodgy videos on Damian Green (the de-facto deputy PM) computer and questions are being raised about the whips/leaking that has came from No.10.

Usual warnings; but this is starting to feel like something that may cause the government serious harm.

[Blair]

I guess I was comparing more to Tony Blair's 2005 win as you saw him win in a number of mixed urban/rural constituencies in Kent, Staffordshire as well as East Midlands where Corbyn not only lost, but wasn't close.  Likewise the Liberal Democrats won many rural ones in the Southwest and most of those the Tories got over 50%.  Likewise if you look at the margins in the core urban ones, Corbyn got over 70% in several constituencies and over 80% in a few whereas I don't think under Blair they ever cracked the 80% mark in any and only in his first win in 1997 did you see them getting over 70% in multiple constituencies not subsequent ones.  You saw the same with Hillary Clinton which is why she won the popular vote despite losing the electoral college.  Also it seems every time the boundaries change, they tend to favour the Tories as I am guessing the suburban areas just beyond the large cities are the fastest growing and popular seaside towns for retirees.

FWIW I'd be careful to compare 2017 to an election that was 20 years before it in terms of seats, mainly because A.) It was a snap election B.) All the minor parties collapsed C.) Turnout was higher D.) Socially liberal conservatives who voted Remain didn't vote tory.

All this can explains why seats like mine (and tons of others in London/Bristol etc) suddenly gained 10,000 votes

[mileslunn]

I can't be bothered to link to the various headlines but there's a good deal of juicy stuff in tomorrow papers (to the extent I might get up to watch Marr tomorrow morning for the paper summary) Fallon apparently lunged at a journalist; which is why he was sacked, the police found dodgy videos on Damian Green (the de-facto deputy PM) computer and questions are being raised about the whips/leaking that has came from No.10.

Usual warnings; but this is starting to feel like something that may cause the government serious harm.

Polls FWIW seem to suggest a hung parliament with Tories definitely not being able to form a government and Labour facing a fairly tricky one, maybe Labour + SNP perhaps but most polls show both parties would fall shy of 300 seats.  I think the real problem is most are firmly in one camp or another.  Jeremy Corbyn scares way too many soft Tories who maybe open to change, but think he is too radical, while the Tory screw-ups have been too numerous than most soft Labour supporters are determined they need to spend some time in opposition before returning.  Interesting Labour is pushing for lowering the voting age to 16, I am guessing they think they will do better if this happens.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Am I the only one who doesn't really care that Green had porn on his computer? Especially when compared to the very serious allegations with actual victims, it seems a bit of a hit job.

[mileslunn]

For our British posters here, what do you think the chances are of the Tories staying in power until 2022?  Also I know polls are just a snapshot but do any realistically think Labour can win a majority or would it just be plurality and they have to turn to other parties to prop them up?

[NewYorkExpress]

For our British posters here, what do you think the chances are of the Tories staying in power until 2022?  Also I know polls are just a snapshot but do any realistically think Labour can win a majority or would it just be plurality and they have to turn to other parties to prop them up?

I bet May steps down, before a no-confidence vote happens.

[Kingpoleon]

Am I the only one who doesn't really care that Green had porn on his computer? Especially when compared to the very serious allegations with actual victims, it seems a bit of a hit job.

He will almost certainly lose his position for it. My question is: Who will replace him? Truss? Gove? Rudd?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Carl Sargeant, AM for Alyn & Deeside since 2003 and a longserving minister in various capacities until a few days ago, has committed suicide. He was the subject of a number of accusations in the ongoing sexual harassment story (details not yet know I believe) and as a result had been sacked as a minister and had his Party membership suspended. He was 49.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Both Priti Patel and Boris Johnson are in serious trouble atm. The former for trying to distribute aid money to the Israeli military to fund operations in the Golan Heights after meeting in secret with Israeli figures; the latter for contradicting the defence team of a British citizen imprisoned in Iran and potentially jeopardising her freedom. It's almost as if having a Foreign Secretary who views his job as a sort of midlife gap year is a bad idea or something.

[Lumine]

May should probably take a risk and purge the cabinet to allow some fresh blood in. Inertia and survival for the sake of survival didn't help John Major, and it certainly won't help her at this stage.

[Kingpoleon]

May should probably take a risk and purge the cabinet to allow some fresh blood in. Inertia and survival for the sake of survival didn't help John Major, and it certainly won't help her at this stage.

She can’t afford to purge Rudd.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently Patel has been conducting her own private foreign policy in other countries as well?!? All of this is such a howlingly clear breach of the ministerial code: how could anyone be that stupid?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

the latter for contradicting the defence team of a British citizen imprisoned in Iran and potentially jeopardising her freedom. It's almost as if having a Foreign Secretary who views his job as a sort of midlife gap year is a bad idea or something.

With the additional detail that Iran is extremely paranoid about British influence in a way that very few countries are these days. Which means the risk of British citizens in such situations there being mistreated is...

Why hasn't he resigned. Like on honour grounds? Jesus.

[Blair]

I know it's always said that this is the worst week for a government in years, but this not only beats anything from 2010-2015, but also makes the week in October where the stage fall apart and TM started coughing look like a rather funny joke.

Both the Johnson and Patel incident are damaging to our international reputation, clearly broke the ministerial code, and frankly showed that both had absolutely awful judgement. Neither one has apologized, Pretti Patel has lied about 4 times (including to No.10) and it's just making us look like a complete joke.

The fact that No.10 won't fire either one (Patel should, and most likely will get sacked tomorrow if more comes out) makes me wonder what is the point in Theresa May being Prime Minister? I could understand if she cared about Brexit, or if she wanted to stop someone becoming Leader, but she's actively destroying what's left of her reputation

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Jeremy Corbyn is a great leader

[Lumine]

Priti Patel resigned as International Development Secretary.

[cp]

Another one bites the dust. #Prexit