UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[mileslunn]

With a preferential ballot, not a lot would have changed as Labour got over 50% in 222 seats (they won 262 seats) and Tories in 244 seats (they won 317 seats) while Liberal Democrats in Vince Cable's seat, the speaker, and Greens in Caroline Lucas' seat.  Excluding Northern Ireland none of the smaller parties not mentioned cracked the 50% mark.  So excluding Northern Ireland only in 163 constituencies would they gone to a runoff.  Labour might have benefited a bit but not as clear cut as some think.  I suspect any constituency the Liberal Democrats came in second, they would have picked up most second choices as they fall on the political spectrum in between the Tories and Labour, which is why they wanted AV so much as they figured as long as they could come in second and the winner didn't get over 50% they would probably benefit.  Although that was at a time where they came in second in many constituencies whereas last time around there were fewer than 30 constituencies where the scenario described applied. 

As for Labour/Tory votes, I suspect outside of Scotland, the Green vote would have almost all gone Labour, LibDems split fairly evenly with maybe a slight edge to Labour, UKIP gone mostly Tory but a sizeable minority would have gone over to Labour.  Plaid Cymru probably more Labour than Tory but they are more a rural party so I don't think you could add theirs together. 

In Scotland it gets a bit trickier as you not only had tactical voting against the Tories, you had a lot of it against the SNP too.  So in SNP/Tory battles where SNP narrowly edged the Tories I think the Tories would have won as most LibDems would have favoured the Tories over SNP while Labour would have split evenly with those whose main concern was to have a progressive government going SNP and those whose main concern was to stop another independence referendum going Tory.  On the other hand Labour probably would have done a lot better in Scotland as in SNP/Labour battles in the Central belt, especially Glasgow, I suspect most Tory voters would have ranked Labour higher than the SNP.  SNP may lean left and have more in common with Labour than the Tories but comparing 2015 and 2017 results suggest more swung over to the Tories than Labour so tough to say how they would go.  So in sum under AV or run off ballots it would probably be another hung parliament although the Tories wouldn't be able to rely on the DUP to prop them up so perhaps Corbyn would be PM, but it would be a very shaky one.

Under PR, if you assume people would vote the same way (which they would not) it would be the Liberal Democrats who would hold the balance of power and they said they wouldn't prop up either although facing pressure to avoid another election I suspect they would throw their support behind whomever promised a soft Brexit and another referendum once the deal was finalized.

However with PR people would vote differently.  Greens and UKIP would have done a lot better as would have even the Liberal Democrats at least in seats (they would have gotten in lot fewer votes in the constituencies they won as most of those were either tactical votes or personal votes for the MP, but more in the constituencies they were uncompetitive in as it appears in most places most LibDems voted for their second choice).  Likewise it's quite possible an outright racist/fascist party similar to the BNP would win seats as more than 5% of Brits are outright racists whereas you cannot win any seat in FTFP on an outright racist platform.  Also a harder left party probably would have existed too as most on the hard left throw their support behind Corbyn as they know under FTFP he is the furthest left the country will ever get, but under PR there would be every incentive for your Trotskyites and hardcore leftist to vote for an even more left wing party to have an influence in pushing him leftward.  So with PR the results would have been totally different as parties would behave differently and people would vote for their first choice whereas under FTFP most vote for whichever between Labour and Tory they dislike least or at least in most constituencies people vote whatever of the top two likely parties they dislike least as opposed to what they want.

That being said I prefer majoritarian systems is it keeps local representation, keeps fringe parties out, and leads to more stable governments on balance.

[Leftbehind]

YouGov polled what people would prefer the HOC to look like, which might not be a million miles away from what a PR election would look like:-



Also, the breakdown of Labour's voters loyalties, were there to be a split (albeit when Labour were at their low ebb, with disquiet with Corbyn prompting the polling):-



Corbynites being 9% - so Die Linke levels.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

took me an embarrassing amount of time trying to work out what minor socialists were being represented by "SPK"

[Leftbehind]

took me an embarrassing amount of time trying to work out what minor socialists were being represented by "SPK"

Socialist People's (Kettering).

[Simfan34]

What is WEP? The Women's Equality Party?

[thumb21]

What is WEP? The Women's Equality Party?

Yeah

[Phony Moderate]

How ironic it would be if the Lib Dems did get 56 seats under a PR system, as that is around the numbers they got in the noughties (when their complaints about the electoral system were at their loudest).

[Phony Moderate]

Damian Green, the (de facto) Deputy PM, has resigned.

[Blair]

Damian Green, the (de facto) Deputy PM, has resigned.

Looks like he's been sacked. I never get why they have this stupid facade where they say 'they asked for his resignation.''

Am a tad surprised; although it's been drawn out for so long, and was done on the last day of term for the Tories. If he had resigned in November when this was all brewing it would have been a lot worse.

Will cause a slight cabinet reshuffle, and we'll need a new deputy PM. Most likely Amber Rudd

[Silent Hunter]

Looks like he's been sacked. I never get why they have this stupid facade where they say 'they asked for his resignation.''

'Asking for one's resignation' is a politer way of sacking someone. It allows them to leave with a degree of dignity... if it's not made public that it's happened. It also speeds up the departure process rather than go through a full disciplinary process.

However, it's legally edgy as it can be deemed as "constructive dismissal".

[mileslunn]

Damian Green, the (de facto) Deputy PM, has resigned.

Looks like he's been sacked. I never get why they have this stupid facade where they say 'they asked for his resignation.''

Am a tad surprised; although it's been drawn out for so long, and was done on the last day of term for the Tories. If he had resigned in November when this was all brewing it would have been a lot worse.

Will cause a slight cabinet reshuffle, and we'll need a new deputy PM. Most likely Amber Rudd

Labour has been calling for Boris Johnson to be sacked.  Any chance that will happen or would that be too risky as he seems to be the frontrunner to secede May so best to keep your enemies closest.

[Blair]

Bar a major scandal Johnson won't be sacked. May has had too many chances to do it.

There's some talk about moving him from the Foreign Office to a beefed up Business Department (or to Tory Chairman) but the problem is that if he has a domestic post he'll be pissing on every news story.

He's not at all as popular as he was back in 2015, either with Tory MPs or with the public.

[Leftbehind]

Damian Green, the (de facto) Deputy PM, has resigned.

Looks like he's been sacked. I never get why they have this stupid facade where they say 'they asked for his resignation.''

Am a tad surprised; although it's been drawn out for so long, and was done on the last day of term for the Tories. If he had resigned in November when this was all brewing it would have been a lot worse.

Will cause a slight cabinet reshuffle, and we'll need a new deputy PM. Most likely Amber Rudd

Labour has been calling for Boris Johnson to be sacked.  Any chance that will happen or would that be too risky as he seems to be the frontrunner to secede May so best to keep your enemies closest.

May knows he's a shameless opportunist who'll do anything to further himself, and wants his name muddied with this government and their handling of Brexit - she is not about to give him a consequence free exit so he can arrive upon the scene after her resignation/reputation's shot with a well-furnished reputation as a True Brexiteer, True Conservative etc.

Bar a major scandal Johnson won't be sacked. May has had too many chances to do it.

You could argue that has already happened with his help to the Iranians...

[Kingpoleon]

I’d like to see Nicky Morgan or Sajid Javid replace Green, but it’s more likely that it will be Rudd.

[ViaActiva]

If I were May (some concessions to party unity here)

Prime Minister: Theresa May
Leader of the House of Commons: Jeremy Hunt
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Amber Rudd
Foreign Secretary: Rory Stewart
Home Secretary: Brandon Lewis
Brexit Secretary: David Davis
International Trade Secretary: Liam Fox
Defence Secretary: Gavin Williamson
Health Secretary: Sarah Wollaston
Education Secretary: Penny Mordaunt
Justice Secretary/Lord Chancellor: David Liddington
BEIS: George Freeman
Transport: Dominic Raab
DCLG: Sajid Javid
DWP: David Gauke
DfID: Tom Tugendhat
DDCMS: Tracey Crouch
DEFRA: Michael Gove
Scotland: David Mundell
Wales: Alun Cairns
NI: James Brokenshire
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Justine Greening
Minister of State for the Cabinet Office: Neil O'Brien
Chairman of the Conservative Party: James Cleverly
Chief Whip: Julian Smith

[mileslunn]

If I were May (some concessions to party unity here)

Prime Minister: Theresa May
Leader of the House of Commons: Jeremy Hunt
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Amber Rudd
Foreign Secretary: Rory Stewart
Home Secretary: Brandon Lewis
Brexit Secretary: David Davis
International Trade Secretary: Liam Fox
Defence Secretary: Gavin Williamson
Health Secretary: Sarah Wollaston
Education Secretary: Penny Mordaunt
Justice Secretary/Lord Chancellor: David Liddington
BEIS: George Freeman
Transport: Dominic Raab
DCLG: Sajid Javid
DWP: David Gauke
DfID: Tom Tugendhat
DDCMS: Tracey Crouch
DEFRA: Michael Gove
Scotland: David Mundell
Wales: Alun Cairns
NI: James Brokenshire
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Justine Greening
Minister of State for the Cabinet Office: Neil O'Brien
Chairman of the Conservative Party: James Cleverly
Chief Whip: Julian Smith

Wouldn't getting rid of Boris Johnson just increase the chances he will try to stir up things to become the next PM.  Maybe move him somewhere else, I am thinking of Transport/Infrastructure as that would go well for a previous mayor of the largest city.

[ViaActiva]

If I were May (some concessions to party unity here)

Prime Minister: Theresa May
Leader of the House of Commons: Jeremy Hunt
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Amber Rudd
Foreign Secretary: Rory Stewart
Home Secretary: Brandon Lewis
Brexit Secretary: David Davis
International Trade Secretary: Liam Fox
Defence Secretary: Gavin Williamson
Health Secretary: Sarah Wollaston
Education Secretary: Penny Mordaunt
Justice Secretary/Lord Chancellor: David Liddington
BEIS: George Freeman
Transport: Dominic Raab
DCLG: Sajid Javid
DWP: David Gauke
DfID: Tom Tugendhat
DDCMS: Tracey Crouch
DEFRA: Michael Gove
Scotland: David Mundell
Wales: Alun Cairns
NI: James Brokenshire
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Justine Greening
Minister of State for the Cabinet Office: Neil O'Brien
Chairman of the Conservative Party: James Cleverly
Chief Whip: Julian Smith

Wouldn't getting rid of Boris Johnson just increase the chances he will try to stir up things to become the next PM.  Maybe move him somewhere else, I am thinking of Transport/Infrastructure as that would go well for a previous mayor of the largest city.

True - I guess it depends whether May can survive the risk of Boris outside of the tent trying to whip up the Brexiteers, he's quite unpopular with most of the Parliamentary Party (but not the activists) so maybe she could.

You're right that he'd be best placed in a less important Cabinet role - Transport / DCLG / or DDCMS, though there have been press reports that he threatened to quit if offered a demotion.

[mileslunn]

If I were May (some concessions to party unity here)

Prime Minister: Theresa May
Leader of the House of Commons: Jeremy Hunt
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Amber Rudd
Foreign Secretary: Rory Stewart
Home Secretary: Brandon Lewis
Brexit Secretary: David Davis
International Trade Secretary: Liam Fox
Defence Secretary: Gavin Williamson
Health Secretary: Sarah Wollaston
Education Secretary: Penny Mordaunt
Justice Secretary/Lord Chancellor: David Liddington
BEIS: George Freeman
Transport: Dominic Raab
DCLG: Sajid Javid
DWP: David Gauke
DfID: Tom Tugendhat
DDCMS: Tracey Crouch
DEFRA: Michael Gove
Scotland: David Mundell
Wales: Alun Cairns
NI: James Brokenshire
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Justine Greening
Minister of State for the Cabinet Office: Neil O'Brien
Chairman of the Conservative Party: James Cleverly
Chief Whip: Julian Smith

Wouldn't getting rid of Boris Johnson just increase the chances he will try to stir up things to become the next PM.  Maybe move him somewhere else, I am thinking of Transport/Infrastructure as that would go well for a previous mayor of the largest city.

True - I guess it depends whether May can survive the risk of Boris outside of the tent trying to whip up the Brexiteers, he's quite unpopular with most of the Parliamentary Party (but not the activists) so maybe she could.

You're right that he'd be best placed in a less important Cabinet role - Transport / DCLG / or DDCMS, though there have been press reports that he threatened to quit if offered a demotion.

Transport is still a very important one and based on his background as London mayor seems more suited as generally mayors tend to have more expertise in infrastructure and transport which is a major issue for cities as opposed to foreign policy.  Also he might cause the Tories problems passing the re-distribution is the re-distribution of his constituency would have him losing it as it includes a sizeable chunk of John McDonnell's constituency so he might vote against yet the new boundaries as a whole are better for the Tories than the current ones.  He also isn't the only Tory hurt, Kenneth Clarke under the new boundaries would be far more vulnerable as he would have only won by 2 points instead of 13 as he loses much of the southern rural parts which go heavily conservative while maintains the southern suburbs of Nottingham which the two parties split pretty evenly in and Labour even made some inroads due to changing demographics.  That being said I don't think boundary changes are a confidence vote that the government would fall on anyways.

[ViaActiva]

If I were May (some concessions to party unity here)

Prime Minister: Theresa May
Leader of the House of Commons: Jeremy Hunt
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Amber Rudd
Foreign Secretary: Rory Stewart
Home Secretary: Brandon Lewis
Brexit Secretary: David Davis
International Trade Secretary: Liam Fox
Defence Secretary: Gavin Williamson
Health Secretary: Sarah Wollaston
Education Secretary: Penny Mordaunt
Justice Secretary/Lord Chancellor: David Liddington
BEIS: George Freeman
Transport: Dominic Raab
DCLG: Sajid Javid
DWP: David Gauke
DfID: Tom Tugendhat
DDCMS: Tracey Crouch
DEFRA: Michael Gove
Scotland: David Mundell
Wales: Alun Cairns
NI: James Brokenshire
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Justine Greening
Minister of State for the Cabinet Office: Neil O'Brien
Chairman of the Conservative Party: James Cleverly
Chief Whip: Julian Smith

Wouldn't getting rid of Boris Johnson just increase the chances he will try to stir up things to become the next PM.  Maybe move him somewhere else, I am thinking of Transport/Infrastructure as that would go well for a previous mayor of the largest city.

True - I guess it depends whether May can survive the risk of Boris outside of the tent trying to whip up the Brexiteers, he's quite unpopular with most of the Parliamentary Party (but not the activists) so maybe she could.

You're right that he'd be best placed in a less important Cabinet role - Transport / DCLG / or DDCMS, though there have been press reports that he threatened to quit if offered a demotion.

Transport is still a very important one and based on his background as London mayor seems more suited as generally mayors tend to have more expertise in infrastructure and transport which is a major issue for cities as opposed to foreign policy.  Also he might cause the Tories problems passing the re-distribution is the re-distribution of his constituency would have him losing it as it includes a sizeable chunk of John McDonnell's constituency so he might vote against yet the new boundaries as a whole are better for the Tories than the current ones.  He also isn't the only Tory hurt, Kenneth Clarke under the new boundaries would be far more vulnerable as he would have only won by 2 points instead of 13 as he loses much of the southern rural parts which go heavily conservative while maintains the southern suburbs of Nottingham which the two parties split pretty evenly in and Labour even made some inroads due to changing demographics.  That being said I don't think boundary changes are a confidence vote that the government would fall on anyways.

Don't disagree about the fundamental importance of Transport but it really isn't seen that way in Whitehall - ministers have been shuttled in and out for years without any long-term view about the nation's infrastructure. For a politician holding a great office of state to move there would be seen as a demotion, and if you believe the briefing in the press Boris has taken this view.

On boundaries, I think most people agree that they're unlikely to get through now as the majority isn't there. Think the Tories will eventually have to compromise on minor boundaries changes w. 650 MPs in the future.

[Silent Hunter]

It would be nice if they removed Chris Grayling from Transport though.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Brokenshire has resigned on health grounds. Can't imagine man want to take up his brief (Northern Ireland) in a hurry.

McLaughlin fired as Tory chair (understandably given his 2017 campaign) and Liddington moves from Justice to De Facto Deputy PM (replacing Damain "wanker" Green).

[Lumine]

Greening out as Education Secretary (apparently was offered DWP and refused it), replaced by Damian Hinds.

Brandon Lewis promoted to Party Chairman and Matt Hancock to Culture Secretary, David Gauke moved to Justice, Karen Bradley to Northern Ireland, Hunt and Javid see their titles seemingly expanded but remain on the same jobs.

Still, very disappointing given the speculation, Johnson, Gove, Grayling and the rest all remain exactly in place.

[Simfan34]

Cabinet of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland [a]
Prime Minister: The Rt Hon. Theresa May MP
Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs:  [b]
Chancellor of the Exchequer: The Rt Hon. Nicky Morgan MP [1]
Secretary of State for the Home Department: The Rt Hon. Priti Patel MP
Secretary of State for Business, Industry, and Trade: The Rt Hon. Philip Hammond MP
Secretary of State for Defence: The Rt Hon. Boris Johnson MP [2]
Lord Chancellor: The Rt Hon. Theresa Villiers QC MP
Secretary of State for Education: The Rt Hon. Justine Greening MP [3]
Secretary of State for Health: The Rt Hon. Chris Grayling MP
Secretary of State for Work, Skills, and Social Security: The Rt Hon. Amber Rudd MP
Leader of the House of Lords: The Most Hon. The Marquess of Lothian KCB PC QC
Secretary of State for Infrastructure and Transport: The Rt Hon. Sajid Javid MP
Secretary of State for Science, Innovation, and Information Technology: The Rt Hon. Greg Clark MP
Secretary of State for Environment, Energy, and Sustainable Development: The Rt Hon. Elizabeth Truss MP
Secretary of State for Local Government and the Regions: The Rt Hon. Sarah Newton MP
Leader of the House of Commons (Lord Privy Seal): The Rt Hon. Rory Stewart OBE MP
Secretary of State for Scotland: The Rt Hon. The Baroness McIntosh of Pickering PC [4]
Secretary of State for Wales: The Rt Hon. Alun Cairns MP
Secretary of State for Northern Ireland: The Rt Hon. Penny Mordaunt MP
Secretary of State for Agriculture, Conservation, and Rural Affairs: The Rt Hon. James Brokenshire MP TBD? [5]
Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport: The Rt Hon. Dame Caroline Spelman DBE MP

Also attending cabinet meetings
Minister for the Cabinet Office :The Rt Hon. Sam Gyimah MP
Director of the Office of Management and Budget: The Rt Hon. Harriet Baldwin MP
Attorney General: The Rt Hon. Jeremy Wright QC MP
Minister of State for International Development, Deputy Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs (2017–):The Rt Hon. Sir Alan Duncan KCMG MP
Minister of State for European Affairs (Chief Negotiator for Withdrawal from the European Union): The Rt Hon. The Lord Rifkind KCMG PC QC
Minister of State for Commonwealth Affairs: The Rt Hon. Kwasi Kwarteng MP
Chief Whip in the House of Lords: The Rt Hon. The Baroness Evans of Bowes Park PC
Chief Whip in the House of Commons: The Rt Hon. Esther McVey MP
Chairman of the Conservative Party (Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster): The Rt Hon. Victoria Atkins MP

[a] 'Oh, you mean we have a gender-equal cabinet? I didn't notice... I'm serious! Really!'
[b.] Call Netanyahu, see how that goes, and decide between Patel and Alan Duncan. As you might've guessed, May was originally Foreign Secretary and the PM someone else, but I didn't want to do a complete reshuffle of the nice list I already had handy.
[1] Much reduced in importance, as the existence of an OMB suggests. Immediately sacked Gideon and made him Ambassador to China, or perhaps Ambassador to the UN. Somewhere far from London, at any rate.
[2] Previously Infrastructure and Transport Secretary. ('Wait, Boris-- think of the patronage!') As this government has committed to raising defence spending back to 1997 levels, heading the MoD is a supremely plum post.
[3] Forestalling the implementation of the government's (pro-grammar school) agenda and bound to be sacked soon.
[4] Maybe now would be a good time to replace her with an actual MP. (see point [a])
[5] Probably hasn't resigned, as the [squints] Department of Rural Affairs can probably wait, unlike Northern Ireland.

[EPG]

In fact, re earlier discussions, Boris Johnson's brother Jo has been moved to be a minister for Transport and London under Chris Grayling.

In the UK, the Department for Transport doesn't have much discretionary budget, or many state transport companies to direct, and as for the largest decisions, they are constrained by planning law and public interest, so the whole government is inevitably involved. In contrast, the Foreign Secretary has a huge role in setting UK foreign policy, and you get to meet with world statesmen!

[Silent Hunter]

Which puts you safely out of the country a lot of the time.