UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Blair]

Fwiw forgot to mention  the leader doesn’t pick the general secretary’s; it’s selected by the NEC which has a ‘left’ majority but not a Corbynite one.

This is where the weird crossover of trade union politics and labour internal politics clash

[Blair]

My third and last post on this obscure Labour drama,

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/26/jon-lansman-set-to-stand-for-role-of-labour-general-secretary

Someone should really commission a TV show about what the hell is actually happening in Labour since 2015... if I was a corbynite I wouldn't mind Lansman being General Secretary, but this is certainly like when a warlord crowns himself King

[Coldstream]

Lansman’s power if often overstated - he is hated by a lot of grassroots Corbynites, ostensibly for his draconian control of Momentum - (though I think most people would agree the fact he’s a Jew and one who’s not hostile to Israel plays a part in that). He could become General Secretary owing to the sort of patronage he has with a lot of the CLP/PLP members of the NEC but it’s more likely that the Trade Unions would want to pick one of their own like Formby or Karie Murphy.

I can be reasonably confident (as a Labour member) that It won’t be Andrew Murray. In addition to the fact he’s only been a member for a few months since he left the Communist Party; the man is a self professed Stalinist and support of North Korea he only stays around as McCluskey’s enforcer he doesn’t have any actual support within the Party.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Labour government incoming.

[Leftbehind]

Better to take nothing for granted with these polls for fairly obvious reasons. They just serve a purpose to stop certain narratives sapping morale among the Left.

[Frodo]

The next general election is in 2022, correct?  Or is it still 2020?

[LabourJersey]

The next general election is in 2022, correct?  Or is it still 2020?

The next election will be either when the parliamentary term ends (nominally June 2022, but the election would probably be in May) or whenever the current government loses confidence or collapses.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://news.sky.com/story/school-bomb-hoaxes-revealed-to-be-part-of-minecraft-gamer-feud-11297062

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You know, if you want to get a server suspended for abuse, there's a safer way of doing that than framing them for bombing schools.

[Blair]

Owen Smith was sacked from the Shadow Cabinet today for calling for a 2nd referendum, and for criticizing the party policy around Brexit.

Lots of people on the right getting extremely angry about this; but I'm not that shocked. If you're in the Shadow Cabinet you have to follow the leader; that's the whole point.  

[afleitch]

Except Diane Abbott is on record as saying the same thing to a constituent. And she's still in her position.

[Blair]

Except Diane Abbott is on record as saying the same thing to a constituent. And she's still in her position.

She sent it in a letter, not a big pre-briefed article in the Guardian which essentially called Labour's entire strategy stupid (which it is!)

Labour's collective responsibility over Brexit has been a joke (it's basically trampled beyond any clear concise view)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh, great. The Labour right is never going to accept Corbyn's legitimacy, is it? Thank God voters don't give a sh*t what these morons think.

[DavidB.]

Oh, great. The Labour right is never going to accept Corbyn's legitimacy, is it? Thank God voters don't give a sh*t what these morons think.

People can accept Corbyn's "legitimacy" as a party leader while still criticizing the party line on a number of issues. Happened before Corbyn and it will happen when he's gone.

[Leftbehind]

Oh, great. The Labour right is never going to accept Corbyn's legitimacy, is it? Thank God voters don't give a sh*t what these morons think.

People can accept Corbyn's "legitimacy" as a party leader while still criticizing the party line on a number of issues. Happened before Corbyn and it will happen when he's gone.

Then don't accept a role involving collective responsibility?

[EPG]

Oh, great. The Labour right is never going to accept Corbyn's legitimacy, is it? Thank God voters don't give a sh*t what these morons think.

He is an election loser who I am very sure will lose again, even against PM May, so he doesn't get a free pass. I am not even very doubtful on this, I think he will be 2 and done.

[Sestak]

Oh, great. The Labour right is never going to accept Corbyn's legitimacy, is it? Thank God voters don't give a sh*t what these morons think.

He is an election loser who I am very sure will lose again, even against PM May, so he doesn't get a free pass. I am not even very doubtful on this, I think he will be 2 and done.

Oh come on, stop it with the HURR DURR COWBYN WOST bull****.

Also, the Lib Dems up to 9%? At this rate, they'll reach a third of their pre-2015 levels in the next election!

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Oh, great. The Labour right is never going to accept Corbyn's legitimacy, is it? Thank God voters don't give a sh*t what these morons think.

He is an election loser who I am very sure will lose again, even against PM May, so he doesn't get a free pass. I am not even very doubtful on this, I think he will be 2 and done.

The labour right is never very doubtful, is it? That's the problem.

[EPG]

Corbyn did lose by 55 seats against Theresa May of all people, which is the usual trigger for reconsidering party leadership in the UK. But, trust me, all the rest of us outside Labour are happy for your guy to keep "winning" as well as he did in 2017.

[YE]

Corbyn did lose by 55 seats against Theresa May of all people, which is the usual trigger for reconsidering party leadership in the UK. But, trust me, all the rest of us outside Labour are happy for your guy to keep "winning" as well as he did in 2017.

Yeah it's not like he closed a massive gap in six weeks or anything, and it's not like the Tories are going to not by dealing with the consequences of Brexit in the next year or so. Everything is nice and dandy for the Tories, right? 

[Leftbehind]

Corbyn did lose by 55 seats against Theresa May of all people, which is the usual trigger for reconsidering party leadership in the UK. But, trust me, all the rest of us outside Labour are happy for your guy to keep "winning" as well as he did in 2017.

You keep saying even May as if she wasn't massively emboldened by the once-in-a-lifetime Brexit election that motivates Conservative voters, and achieved a popular vote share for the Tories not seen since Thatcher. Once that's out of the way though, and the UK is out, it remains to be seen if she can still hold onto those (I suspect not: muh fishing industry etc).  

But there we are, that certainty of yours that I pointed out.

[EPG]

Corbyn did lose by 55 seats against Theresa May of all people, which is the usual trigger for reconsidering party leadership in the UK. But, trust me, all the rest of us outside Labour are happy for your guy to keep "winning" as well as he did in 2017.

Yeah it's not like he closed a massive gap in six weeks or anything, and it's not like the Tories are going to not by dealing with the consequences of Brexit in the next year or so. Everything is nice and dandy for the Tories, right?  

I am being serious. I hope the Labour Party wins every election as well as it won 2017. And the Tories certainly hope they keep losing like in 2017 forever if it means they stay in Downing Street forever.

But there we are, that certainty of yours that I pointed out.

In the last few months, it has become clear that the anti-Brexit forces in Parliament will fail, and then the pro-Corbyn ironic Europhile Londoners will fall back. It has also become clear your guy has learned nothing. He is still pushing puerile anti-American and anti-Israeli causes, to the point of disingenuity when people are being killed in his country (but maybe that was the CIA). He just commiserated upon the obliteration of graffiti featuring, I kid you not, an international conspiracy of rich men with big noses (link to coverage by vile capitalist kulakite rootless-cosmopolitans in the Guardian).

[Leftbehind]

I am being serious. I hope the Labour Party wins every election as well as it won 2017. And the Tories certainly hope they keep losing like in 2017 forever if it means they stay in Downing Street forever.

You mean forever dependent on the good will of the DUP - who are demanding GB stays aligned with NI, whilst the government is promising the EU that NI will stay aligned with the EU? Yeah, solid as a rock that support... Not to mention Labour only need a 1% swing from 2017 to be in government, and half of that to make sure the Tories can't form another. As much as you try, you're not going to be able to convince us 2017 was a poor result for Labour. 

In the last few months, it has become clear that the anti-Brexit forces in Parliament will fail, and then the pro-Corbyn ironic Europhile Londoners will fall back. It has also become clear your guy has learned nothing. He is still pushing puerile anti-American and anti-Israeli causes, to the point of disingenuity when people are being killed in his country (but maybe that was the CIA). He just commiserated with the obliteration of graffiti featuring, I kid you not, an international conspiracy of rich men with big noses (link to coverage by vile capitalist kulakite rootless-cosmopolitans in the Guardian).

Corbyn's foreign policy and attacks as an anti-semite were well known prior the GE17, and this is just a continuation. What wasn't known was May's approach regarding our fishing industry post-Brexit, and there's hundreds of other segments of the population to upset as she negotiates our withdrawal. Why exactly will the Europhilic Londoners fall back to the Brexit party? Especially one having to placate the harder-Brexit wing who will be in uproar at her betrayals (again, see fishing industry as just one example). 

[parochial boy]

Corbyn did lose by 55 seats against Theresa May of all people, which is the usual trigger for reconsidering party leadership in the UK. But, trust me, all the rest of us outside Labour are happy for your guy to keep "winning" as well as he did in 2017.

Yeah it's not like he closed a massive gap in six weeks or anything, and it's not like the Tories are going to not by dealing with the consequences of Brexit in the next year or so. Everything is nice and dandy for the Tories, right? 

I am being serious. I hope the Labour Party wins every election as well as it won 2017. And the Tories certainly hope they keep losing like in 2017 forever if it means they stay in Downing Street forever.

But there we are, that certainty of yours that I pointed out.

In the last few months, it has become clear that the anti-Brexit forces in Parliament will fail, and then the pro-Corbyn ironic Europhile Londoners will fall back. It has also become clear your guy has learned nothing. He is still pushing puerile anti-American and anti-Israeli causes, to the point of disingenuity when people are being killed in his country (but maybe that was the CIA). He just commiserated upon the obliteration of graffiti featuring, I kid you not, an international conspiracy of rich men with big noses (link to coverage by vile capitalist kulakite rootless-cosmopolitans in the Guardian).

Don't, uh, fall into the trap of thinking that Corbyn's overperformance in 2017 was purely down to London/Brexit/whatever. That's not entirely what happened (certainly doesn't explain the huge swings in places like Worthing or Cornwall. I mean, even Fareham swung towards Labour last year, middle class Brexiteers of all people shouldn't have been swinging left in 2017. Or the consistent polling showing that Labour voters are much less concerned about Brexit than supporters of the other parties).

Tbh, it's very hard to predict what post-Brexit is going to look like seeing as we don't even know how much time the Tories are going to spend kicking the actual leave date further and further down the road.

[IceAgeComing]

There's also the fact that you have to consider the context in which the election was called.

It was an early poll called by a majority Tory government seeking to get a huge majority so they could ram through whatever Brexit-related legislation they wanted without needing to worry about losing votes in parliament: to quieten the Tory rebels by claiming to have a post-referendum mandate and to neuter the opposition by sheer force of numbers.  It was also called in a situation where Labour were trailing by 20% in the polls and with a very divided Labour party who appeared (to those who only got their information from the Labour right) to be incapable of running an election campaign.  They hoped to win a large majority to get them through until 2022 (probably past the worst point of the post-Brexit problems); and to really hurt the Labour party and put them in a position where they spent the next five years arguing amongst themselves and not appearing like a strong government in any meaningful sense: think Labour post-83.

In that context; the Tories did not "win" the election in any meaningful sense: they met precisely zero of their goals.  They lost their majority meaning that they now have to rely on opposition votes on everything plus they didn't quieten the rebels in their own party because they didn't get a strong mandate.  They can't guarantee to go through until 2022: they rely on the DUP for confidence votes and the majority even with them could theoretically fall if they get a run of bad by-election results and Labour left the election broadly being a lot more united - at least the claim of unelectability was seriously hurt by the election; a party that's so anathema to the country to be impossible to form government would never get 40% in a General Election - and while they have their moments generally they are a much stronger opposition who, rather than being in that place where they argue amongst themselves over trite crap because they think that they've not got a chance to win the next election, are in a very good position to advanced further.

The "he should resign because he LOST" argument is very silly - there is precedent for 'losing' leaders staying on for another term (Kinnock lost in 87 and stayed until 92; Wilson lost in 70 and won in Feb74; Heath lost in 66 and stayed to win 70 etc) and there's also the fact that no party is going to evict a leader that managed over the course of an election campaign, no matter the incompetence of the other party, to almost entirely close a 20+% poll lead.  Like imagine a scenario where in 2001 it turned out that William Hague was a godly campaigner and managed to slash the Labour majority from 179 to 20: under your argument he should resign despite having a clearly very strong campaign because he "lost" by 60 seats or whatever the gap would have been which isn't at all sensible.  The precedent where leaders resign the day after an election is really very new; and has only been a thing since the 90s.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who knows what the future holds, particularly now that the Labour Left has a degree of institutional strength that it lacked two years ago. I'll leave that one as cryptic: interpret how you want.

But it's important to note that the last election was - on the ground - less personalised than it might have looked following the election abroad online. One reason why Labour performed surprisingly strongly was because it ran a campaign on multiple frequencies: a campaign for people who support Labour but dislike Corbyn and a campaign for people who maybe aren't so keen on Labour but lapped up Corbyn's personal message. Corbyn's rallies were social media phenomenons, absolutely, but he barely appeared on the television or on the radio - which are the mediums that most people imbibe politics through: the faces and voices of Labour during the campaign in that sense were Thonberry and Gardiner - and when he did it was in controlled and rehearsable situations. The paradox of Corbyn was (and remains) that he's an unpopular politician* who also happens to be able to inspire enthusiasm amongst a substantial block of the electorate.

_{*If, since the last GE, no more unpopular than most unpopular politicians.}