UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Hnv1]

So soon when Labour will be +7 in polls will we finally see a new leadership contest?

[IceAgeComing]

The big issue really are the Brexit talks: I don't see the Tories pushing the Prime Minister out right in the middle of these time critical negotiations unless they've agreed some kind of transitional arrangements and later talks - and if so good luck getting the Tory party to agree to the sort of terms that the EU would make for that.  I'm pretty sure May will stand down around May 2019 with a contest after that - although if Labour suddenly end up a long way ahead they might act sooner, especially since the government doesn't have an overall majority and if I was Labour after the talks period end I'd be pushing for an election as hard as possible for as long as May stays around after that.

That is actually really quite bad for the Tory party; since it basically means that we will have the deep leadership conflicts that are clearly already happening continue on for at least another year, and they can't do the thing of challenging her without giving the opposition a huge amount of ammunition - much more than Labour gave the Tories when they challenged Corbyn last year.  If they push the Prime Minister out during the talks, you can guarantee that Labour will not stop talking about that for as long as they can...

[cp]

Add to that the economic and logistical disaster that will follow anything but a business-as-usual seamless transition, which would be unacceptable to the Brexit fundamentalists in the Tory ranks.

The real tragedy is that with the Tories so consumed by their petty internal squabbles, the bureaucratic and constitutional process of extricating the UK from the EU is receiving hardly any attention or thought. It was a dreadful idea to begin with but this just ensures it will be a catastrophe for the Tories and the country (possibly not in that order).

The only bright side is that Labour is going to run against such a mess, and be bequeathed such a ruthlessly centralized system of cabinet/committee legislative prerogatives, they'll be able to enact an agenda more sweeping and revolutionary than they ever would have if the Tories had gone for a soft Brexit.

[mileslunn]

Add to that the economic and logistical disaster that will follow anything but a business-as-usual seamless transition, which would be unacceptable to the Brexit fundamentalists in the Tory ranks.

The real tragedy is that with the Tories so consumed by their petty internal squabbles, the bureaucratic and constitutional process of extricating the UK from the EU is receiving hardly any attention or thought. It was a dreadful idea to begin with but this just ensures it will be a catastrophe for the Tories and the country (possibly not in that order).

The only bright side is that Labour is going to run against such a mess, and be bequeathed such a ruthlessly centralized system of cabinet/committee legislative prerogatives, they'll be able to enact an agenda more sweeping and revolutionary than they ever would have if the Tories had gone for a soft Brexit.

That assumes Labour wins next time around.  The polls are still fairly close and I suspect the Tories will hit the Labour much harder with their attacks.  Also the strong turnout amongst millennials may or may not materialize again.  Never mind if a true hung parliament where the Liberal Democrats are the party holding the balance of power expect another quick election.  Also I think with a different leader the Tories might do a bit better.  While others disagree, I think Boris Johnson with his common touch and also more urban oriented would help the party somewhat.  Although if they fall far enough in the polls might not matter.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

This is f-king hillarious http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/theresa-may-frida-kahlo-bracelet-communist-cough-conservative-conference-a7982931.html

[cp]

Add to that the economic and logistical disaster that will follow anything but a business-as-usual seamless transition, which would be unacceptable to the Brexit fundamentalists in the Tory ranks.

The real tragedy is that with the Tories so consumed by their petty internal squabbles, the bureaucratic and constitutional process of extricating the UK from the EU is receiving hardly any attention or thought. It was a dreadful idea to begin with but this just ensures it will be a catastrophe for the Tories and the country (possibly not in that order).

The only bright side is that Labour is going to run against such a mess, and be bequeathed such a ruthlessly centralized system of cabinet/committee legislative prerogatives, they'll be able to enact an agenda more sweeping and revolutionary than they ever would have if the Tories had gone for a soft Brexit.

That assumes Labour wins next time around.  The polls are still fairly close and I suspect the Tories will hit the Labour much harder with their attacks.  Also the strong turnout amongst millennials may or may not materialize again.  Never mind if a true hung parliament where the Liberal Democrats are the party holding the balance of power expect another quick election.  Also I think with a different leader the Tories might do a bit better.  While others disagree, I think Boris Johnson with his common touch and also more urban oriented would help the party somewhat.  Although if they fall far enough in the polls might not matter.

I think you are misreading what Johnson's political profile is. He's not someone with a common touch - except insofar as he appears more of an everyman next to cartoonish popinjays like David Davis and Jacob Rees-Mogg - and he's not urban oriented. Johnson's pedigree is as elite/toff as you can get (Eton/Oxford) and his stints as mayor and as Foreign Secretary have worn away whatever impression that he is a feisty outsider to the stodgy powers-that-be.

Second, his constituency is in the suburban commuter belt, which was also the region that delivered him the mayoralty in 2008 and 2012. He has no more appeal to younger, more diverse, more metropolitan/cosmopolitan voters than the average Tory does - and even if he did, his opportunistic transformation on Brexit erased it. The people who admire him, or are at least amused by him, fall comfortably into the category of 'my in-laws': well off, retired, undogmatic but temperamentally conservative, and inclined to vote for the Tories anyway.

I'd also add that for much of the country, being from London, nevermind mayor of it, pretty much precludes you from being thought of as a 'common man'.

As to the dynamics of the next election, nothing is certain, to be sure, but the stench of death on the Tories is pretty inescapable. They shot themselves in the foot with the early election and the circling drain of Brexit negotiations gets a little bit smaller and a little bit faster every week. Combined with the obstinate approach of May and the irreconcilable differences in the caucus over Europe and you've got a recipe for a party that's on its way out.

[Blair]

Add to that the economic and logistical disaster that will follow anything but a business-as-usual seamless transition, which would be unacceptable to the Brexit fundamentalists in the Tory ranks.

The real tragedy is that with the Tories so consumed by their petty internal squabbles, the bureaucratic and constitutional process of extricating the UK from the EU is receiving hardly any attention or thought. It was a dreadful idea to begin with but this just ensures it will be a catastrophe for the Tories and the country (possibly not in that order).

The only bright side is that Labour is going to run against such a mess, and be bequeathed such a ruthlessly centralized system of cabinet/committee legislative prerogatives, they'll be able to enact an agenda more sweeping and revolutionary than they ever would have if the Tories had gone for a soft Brexit.

That assumes Labour wins next time around.  The polls are still fairly close and I suspect the Tories will hit the Labour much harder with their attacks.  Also the strong turnout amongst millennials may or may not materialize again.  Never mind if a true hung parliament where the Liberal Democrats are the party holding the balance of power expect another quick election.  Also I think with a different leader the Tories might do a bit better.  While others disagree, I think Boris Johnson with his common touch and also more urban oriented would help the party somewhat.  Although if they fall far enough in the polls might not matter.

This may have been true in 2012 (I always thought Boris was extremely over-hyped as a retail politician; his only achievement being beating Ken Livingstone during Labours lowest polling period in 2008, and again in 2012 when most people thought Ken was a tax dodging anti-Semite.)

But it's certainly not true now; Boris is absolutely toxic after the referendum to remain voters. His likability has absolutely plummeted, in the last campaign he was just sent to leave areas and he's also not helped by the various gaffes he's made as foreign secretary.

The Tories best hope is to someone stretch out the election until 2022; and hope that someone new can be given enough time as a minister, such as James Cleverly, Ruth Davidson etc. They'd almost benefit from going into opposition and having a completely fresh face.

It's starting to look like Labour in 09-10 when everyone knew Brown had to go, but no-one really wanted to be Prime Minister.

[cp]

It's starting to look like Labour in 09-10 when everyone knew Brown had to go, but no-one really wanted to be Prime Minister.

I agree, though with the crucial difference that the next election does not have to be in the next 18 months. That adds the only real wild card (aka 'faint hope') for the Tories. If they somehow hold on until 2022, enough time will have passed for there to be some change in the dynamics of their party/leadership, or that of Labour's.

I'm at a loss as to how they would struggle on that long; it would be an unprecedentedly long spell for a minority parliament, and there are so many stumbling blocks (and such poor leaders to handle them) that it is almost unthinkable ... and yet, I also can't see how the Tories either lose a vote of no-confidence or voluntarily call another election.

[Blair]

It's starting to look like Labour in 09-10 when everyone knew Brown had to go, but no-one really wanted to be Prime Minister.

I agree, though with the crucial difference that the next election does not have to be in the next 18 months. That adds the only real wild card (aka 'faint hope') for the Tories. If they somehow hold on until 2022, enough time will have passed for there to be some change in the dynamics of their party/leadership, or that of Labour's.

I'm at a loss as to how they would struggle on that long; it would be an unprecedentedly long spell for a minority parliament, and there are so many stumbling blocks (and such poor leaders to handle them) that it is almost unthinkable ... and yet, I also can't see how the Tories either lose a vote of no-confidence or voluntarily call another election.

The last paragraph hits the nail on the head; the Labour Government lasted 5 years in the 1970s, and that government had arguably worse issues to deal with than Brexit. They also lacked one stable coalition party.

The DUP are actually the most reliable coalition party you could get; they're virtually a sister party, and unlike the Greens/SNP/Liberals, they never have to contend with being on the same ballot paper as they're partners.

The whole thing is hilarous as a friend of mine who's a Tory Activist spend the whole of April and May saying how weak the party is, and how if May suddenly quit they'd be no-one to take over

[mileslunn]

Add to that the economic and logistical disaster that will follow anything but a business-as-usual seamless transition, which would be unacceptable to the Brexit fundamentalists in the Tory ranks.

The real tragedy is that with the Tories so consumed by their petty internal squabbles, the bureaucratic and constitutional process of extricating the UK from the EU is receiving hardly any attention or thought. It was a dreadful idea to begin with but this just ensures it will be a catastrophe for the Tories and the country (possibly not in that order).

The only bright side is that Labour is going to run against such a mess, and be bequeathed such a ruthlessly centralized system of cabinet/committee legislative prerogatives, they'll be able to enact an agenda more sweeping and revolutionary than they ever would have if the Tories had gone for a soft Brexit.

That assumes Labour wins next time around.  The polls are still fairly close and I suspect the Tories will hit the Labour much harder with their attacks.  Also the strong turnout amongst millennials may or may not materialize again.  Never mind if a true hung parliament where the Liberal Democrats are the party holding the balance of power expect another quick election.  Also I think with a different leader the Tories might do a bit better.  While others disagree, I think Boris Johnson with his common touch and also more urban oriented would help the party somewhat.  Although if they fall far enough in the polls might not matter.

This may have been true in 2012 (I always thought Boris was extremely over-hyped as a retail politician; his only achievement being beating Ken Livingstone during Labours lowest polling period in 2008, and again in 2012 when most people thought Ken was a tax dodging anti-Semite.)

But it's certainly not true now; Boris is absolutely toxic after the referendum to remain voters. His likability has absolutely plummeted, in the last campaign he was just sent to leave areas and he's also not helped by the various gaffes he's made as foreign secretary.

The Tories best hope is to someone stretch out the election until 2022; and hope that someone new can be given enough time as a minister, such as James Cleverly, Ruth Davidson etc. They'd almost benefit from going into opposition and having a completely fresh face.

It's starting to look like Labour in 09-10 when everyone knew Brown had to go, but no-one really wanted to be Prime Minister.

I agree Labour could win a plurality, but considering how polarizing Corbyn is where exactly would he pick up the 64 seats he needs to win a majority.  Scotland I guess is a wildcard, but in England/Wales there are only 30 maybe 40 at most seats they could realistically flip.  Any constituency the Tories got over 50% will be tough to flip unless the Liberal Democrats or UKIP does better next time as I don't think many Tory voters will move over to a Corbyn led Labour.  Now if Andy Burnham, Owen Smith, or Sadiq Khan were leader that is a different story.  Never mind some traditional blue collar constituencies in the midlands and north like Barrow in Furness, Bishop Auckland, Dudley North, Newcastle Under Lyme, and Ashfield are trending heavily towards the Conservatives thus even if Labour gains, trends would suggest they are at risk of losing these.  While a bit tedious, do you have a list of 64 constituencies you realistically think Corbyn could flip or at least describe what parts of the country that they currently hold that could flip as I cannot seem to find them.  My best case scenario has Labour at around 310 seats while worse case has them falling to around 240 seats.  For the Tories I have best case around 340 seats so a majority and worst case around 270 seats.

[cp]

... Any constituency the Tories got over 50% will be tough to flip unless the Liberal Democrats or UKIP does better next time ...

Question asked, question answered.

As you point out, with the main parties so polarizing - Labour due to Corbyn, the Tories due to Brexit - they've both probably maxed out the percentage of the vote they can expect to win (Labour has a bit more room to grow, especially in Scotland). Should the Tories continue to implode through another general election, their loss will be attributable as much to their core voters staying home or opting for the Lib Dems and UKIP as to Labour picking up support (from anywhere).

One relevant piece of evidence: just after the June election YouGov (I think) did some polling of voters who considered Labour for a time but ended up opting for another party. Their findings were that Corbyn, his allegedly divisive/radical/leftwing policies, and the Labour party's ideological stance generally were not what dissuaded these voters. What did dissuade them was the perception that Labour was haphazard and would not be able to deliver once in power.

As for seats to target, this site gives you a run down. As you can see, it would take a swing of just over 3.5% to deliver the 65 seats needed for an outright majority, and a swing of just 1.5% to tie the Tories in seats (which would almost certainly lead to a Labour-led government with the Lib Dems/SNP all but guaranteeing a full term; their supporters would never forgive them for bringing the Tories back after finally throwing them out). Over half the target seats on that list are in Wales, Scotland, or London - places where Labour has traditionally done well and did particularly/surprisingly well in June.

Put in perspective, the swing to Labour in June was 4.1%. In 1997 - the last time they won back government after a long spell of Tory government ripped apart by Europe - it was 8.8%.

[mileslunn]

... Any constituency the Tories got over 50% will be tough to flip unless the Liberal Democrats or UKIP does better next time ...

Question asked, question answered.

As you point out, with the main parties so polarizing - Labour due to Corbyn, the Tories due to Brexit - they've both probably maxed out the percentage of the vote they can expect to win (Labour has a bit more room to grow, especially in Scotland). Should the Tories continue to implode through another general election, their loss will be attributable as much to their core voters staying home or opting for the Lib Dems and UKIP as to Labour picking up support (from anywhere).

One relevant piece of evidence: just after the June election YouGov (I think) did some polling of voters who considered Labour for a time but ended up opting for another party. Their findings were that Corbyn, his allegedly divisive/radical/leftwing policies, and the Labour party's ideological stance generally were not what dissuaded these voters. What did dissuade them was the perception that Labour was haphazard and would not be able to deliver once in power.

As for seats to target, this site gives you a run down. As you can see, it would take a swing of just over 3.5% to deliver the 65 seats needed for an outright majority, and a swing of just 1.5% to tie the Tories in seats (which would almost certainly lead to a Labour-led government with the Lib Dems/SNP all but guaranteeing a full term; their supporters would never forgive them for bringing the Tories back after finally throwing them out). Over half the target seats on that list are in Wales, Scotland, or London - places where Labour has traditionally done well and did particularly/surprisingly well in June.

Put in perspective, the swing to Labour in June was 4.1%. In 1997 - the last time they won back government after a long spell of Tory government ripped apart by Europe - it was 8.8%.

In terms of specific seats, do you think Boris Johnson's seat could be in danger or his is rather safe?  I know ones like Amber Rudd would almost certainly lose if Labour wins and likewise I suspect Iain Duncan Smith would face a tough fight.  Another interesting one that was somewhat competitive was Rushcliffe which in the past has been a safe Tory constituency although my understanding is Labour does well in the suburban parts in the north which have grown while the rural portions still go heavily Tory.  Nonetheless I think as long as Kenneth Clarke is MP he should hold it, but once he retires it could be vulnerable.  On the other hand I think Tim Farron's riding will likely flip back to the Tories while Norman Lamb's riding will probably flip back whenever he retires as his riding has all the demographics to be a Tory one and more votes Liberal Democrat because of him rather than any real Lib Dem support.  Constituencies like Bishop Auckland, Newcastle under Lyme, Ashfield, Penistone & Stocksbridge, and Dudley North all have groups that are moving away from Labour so even with favourable polls now those could easily flip to the Tories.

[Blair]

Add to that the economic and logistical disaster that will follow anything but a business-as-usual seamless transition, which would be unacceptable to the Brexit fundamentalists in the Tory ranks.

The real tragedy is that with the Tories so consumed by their petty internal squabbles, the bureaucratic and constitutional process of extricating the UK from the EU is receiving hardly any attention or thought. It was a dreadful idea to begin with but this just ensures it will be a catastrophe for the Tories and the country (possibly not in that order).

The only bright side is that Labour is going to run against such a mess, and be bequeathed such a ruthlessly centralized system of cabinet/committee legislative prerogatives, they'll be able to enact an agenda more sweeping and revolutionary than they ever would have if the Tories had gone for a soft Brexit.

That assumes Labour wins next time around.  The polls are still fairly close and I suspect the Tories will hit the Labour much harder with their attacks.  Also the strong turnout amongst millennials may or may not materialize again.  Never mind if a true hung parliament where the Liberal Democrats are the party holding the balance of power expect another quick election.  Also I think with a different leader the Tories might do a bit better.  While others disagree, I think Boris Johnson with his common touch and also more urban oriented would help the party somewhat.  Although if they fall far enough in the polls might not matter.

This may have been true in 2012 (I always thought Boris was extremely over-hyped as a retail politician; his only achievement being beating Ken Livingstone during Labours lowest polling period in 2008, and again in 2012 when most people thought Ken was a tax dodging anti-Semite.)

But it's certainly not true now; Boris is absolutely toxic after the referendum to remain voters. His likability has absolutely plummeted, in the last campaign he was just sent to leave areas and he's also not helped by the various gaffes he's made as foreign secretary.

The Tories best hope is to someone stretch out the election until 2022; and hope that someone new can be given enough time as a minister, such as James Cleverly, Ruth Davidson etc. They'd almost benefit from going into opposition and having a completely fresh face.

It's starting to look like Labour in 09-10 when everyone knew Brown had to go, but no-one really wanted to be Prime Minister.

I agree Labour could win a plurality, but considering how polarizing Corbyn is where exactly would he pick up the 64 seats he needs to win a majority.  Scotland I guess is a wildcard, but in England/Wales there are only 30 maybe 40 at most seats they could realistically flip.  Any constituency the Tories got over 50% will be tough to flip unless the Liberal Democrats or UKIP does better next time as I don't think many Tory voters will move over to a Corbyn led Labour.  Now if Andy Burnham, Owen Smith, or Sadiq Khan were leader that is a different story.  Never mind some traditional blue collar constituencies in the midlands and north like Barrow in Furness, Bishop Auckland, Dudley North, Newcastle Under Lyme, and Ashfield are trending heavily towards the Conservatives thus even if Labour gains, trends would suggest they are at risk of losing these.  While a bit tedious, do you have a list of 64 constituencies you realistically think Corbyn could flip or at least describe what parts of the country that they currently hold that could flip as I cannot seem to find them.  My best case scenario has Labour at around 310 seats while worse case has them falling to around 240 seats.  For the Tories I have best case around 340 seats so a majority and worst case around 270 seats.

Even as someone who worked for Owen's campaign last summer I'd disagree; he seemed like a cheap career politician (who's literal path was former advisor, lobbyist, MP, Shadow minister) and was basically a welsh Ed Miliband.

Andy Burnham, and Sadiq are of course much more skilled politicians (with Sadiq being a much better one; see 2015) and would probably win the next election but they're both out of parliament (I expect Sadiq to try and get a seat again after 2024)

I made the mistake of thinking 'where will Labour get voters from' and thought it would doom them but for every Labour 2015-Tory 2017 voter there was, they were replaced with 4 new voters (2 new voters, 1 socially liberal tory, 1 Green Party voter etc).

If you want a seat that explains this nicely look at Croydon Central Urban seat on the edge of London, lots of young professionals, lots of younger voters, lots of non-white voters, and lots of people who probably voted Tory last time but not this time. That was the funny thing about 2017- Labour won some seats that it lost in the 2005 election!

Stephen Bush explains here just how this has allowed a good chance in the next election as Labour have a good floor to build from.

Electoral Calculus has a great feature which lets you plug in results and see what seats could flip

[Tintrlvr]

... Any constituency the Tories got over 50% will be tough to flip unless the Liberal Democrats or UKIP does better next time ...

Question asked, question answered.

As you point out, with the main parties so polarizing - Labour due to Corbyn, the Tories due to Brexit - they've both probably maxed out the percentage of the vote they can expect to win (Labour has a bit more room to grow, especially in Scotland). Should the Tories continue to implode through another general election, their loss will be attributable as much to their core voters staying home or opting for the Lib Dems and UKIP as to Labour picking up support (from anywhere).

One relevant piece of evidence: just after the June election YouGov (I think) did some polling of voters who considered Labour for a time but ended up opting for another party. Their findings were that Corbyn, his allegedly divisive/radical/leftwing policies, and the Labour party's ideological stance generally were not what dissuaded these voters. What did dissuade them was the perception that Labour was haphazard and would not be able to deliver once in power.

As for seats to target, this site gives you a run down. As you can see, it would take a swing of just over 3.5% to deliver the 65 seats needed for an outright majority, and a swing of just 1.5% to tie the Tories in seats (which would almost certainly lead to a Labour-led government with the Lib Dems/SNP all but guaranteeing a full term; their supporters would never forgive them for bringing the Tories back after finally throwing them out). Over half the target seats on that list are in Wales, Scotland, or London - places where Labour has traditionally done well and did particularly/surprisingly well in June.

Put in perspective, the swing to Labour in June was 4.1%. In 1997 - the last time they won back government after a long spell of Tory government ripped apart by Europe - it was 8.8%.

In terms of specific seats, do you think Boris Johnson's seat could be in danger or his is rather safe?  I know ones like Amber Rudd would almost certainly lose if Labour wins and likewise I suspect Iain Duncan Smith would face a tough fight.  Another interesting one that was somewhat competitive was Rushcliffe which in the past has been a safe Tory constituency although my understanding is Labour does well in the suburban parts in the north which have grown while the rural portions still go heavily Tory.  Nonetheless I think as long as Kenneth Clarke is MP he should hold it, but once he retires it could be vulnerable.  On the other hand I think Tim Farron's riding will likely flip back to the Tories while Norman Lamb's riding will probably flip back whenever he retires as his riding has all the demographics to be a Tory one and more votes Liberal Democrat because of him rather than any real Lib Dem support.  Constituencies like Bishop Auckland, Newcastle under Lyme, Ashfield, Penistone & Stocksbridge, and Dudley North all have groups that are moving away from Labour so even with favourable polls now those could easily flip to the Tories.

On the Lib Dems, definitely agree that they have an uphill climb to hold Lamb's seat, but the Lib Dems have become quite entrenched in local elections in the area covered by Farron's seat. I think there's a good chance it would elect a Lib Dem replacement.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Lakeland_District_Council_elections (note that the least Lib Dem area, Ulverston in the SW of the council area, is in the Barrow and Furness constituency).

The Lib Dems' presence in North Norfolk local elections is much weaker, though they did control the council until 2011 and still have a sizable presence, albeit in opposition to the Conservative majority since 2011.

[cp]

In terms of specific seats, do you think Boris Johnson's seat could be in danger or his is rather safe?  

It's probably safe, but with a few caveats. Johnson's constituency office and local presence are practically non-existent. If he showed up to campaign for his seat then he'd probably win it, but if he was off touring the country (not as PM) then a strong Labour campaign could win it, assuming a general swing to Labour.

It's also worth mentioning that the area has a large and growing immigrant population, particularly from South Asia (India). They're mostly voting Labour already, but with Johnson quoting Kipling and offhandedly recommending burial detail, he might incite just enough contempt to galvanize his opposition.

If he did lose it would be that election's Portillo moment.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

So if May demotes Boris, who gets the Foreign Secretary slot?

[Blair]

So if May demotes Boris, who gets the Foreign Secretary slot?

Michael Fallon? Gove? The problem with Foreign Secretary is that, as Johnson is right to bemoan, it's been stripped off all its power (lost the international development department, and now Trade and Brexit) and considering we can't do much until 2019 it's a pretty unforgiving job.

From what I've read the reshuffle will probably keep a lot of jobs the same; they'll just bring in a lot of new junior minister. No doubt Hunt will somehow survive for the 100th time; the current Tory Cabinet is really weak

[Kingpoleon]

So if May demotes Boris, who gets the Foreign Secretary slot?

Priti Patel, Nicky Morgan, Greg Hands, or Alberto Costa. Of those, I prefer Morgan.

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41713533

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[Blair]

In the never ending combination of Brexit wars it looks like Phillip Hammond (nicknamed spreadsheet Phil, later revised to spreadsh**t Phil) is going to face another difficult budget.

It's worth noting the tories haven't had a successful budget since summer 2015; autumn 2015 had the tax credit fiasco, summer 2016 was the 'project fear' budget that angered the right, and the spring budget this year had the chaos of the National Insurance tax rise on small businesses.

I expect this current one will lead to some crisis; the government has such a small majority that 1 or 2 MPs can just cough some objection, and it virtually leads to a climbdown.

And well this would be hard in normal times, but Hammond has to deal with the black hole of Brexit and the mouth breathers on the right, whilst also trying to show that he understands that the Tories need some sort of electoral offer to both the young and the old.


However he could easily get sacked after the Budget, as a fair amount of tories are calling for him to be sacked; and replaced with Gove.

[mileslunn]

In the never ending combination of Brexit wars it looks like Phillip Hammond (nicknamed spreadsheet Phil, later revised to spreadsh**t Phil) is going to face another difficult budget.

It's worth noting the tories haven't had a successful budget since summer 2015; autumn 2015 had the tax credit fiasco, summer 2016 was the 'project fear' budget that angered the right, and the spring budget this year had the chaos of the National Insurance tax rise on small businesses.

I expect this current one will lead to some crisis; the government has such a small majority that 1 or 2 MPs can just cough some objection, and it virtually leads to a climbdown.

And well this would be hard in normal times, but Hammond has to deal with the black hole of Brexit and the mouth breathers on the right, whilst also trying to show that he understands that the Tories need some sort of electoral offer to both the young and the old.


However he could easily get sacked after the Budget, as a fair amount of tories are calling for him to be sacked; and replaced with Gove.

I thought Tory-DUP actually gives realistically a 6 seat cushion as the 7 Sinn Fein MPs have an abstentionist policy so they are never in the House to vote the government down.  If the Sinn Fein MPs actually showed up the government would be in much greater danger of falling as they only need to lose two by-elections which is probably likely prior to 2022 whereas losing 7 seems like a lot.  Do you know how many they lost between 1992-1997 and if they do lose 7, how long did it take as that would be good basis to go on.

[Kingpoleon]

In the never ending combination of Brexit wars it looks like Phillip Hammond (nicknamed spreadsheet Phil, later revised to spreadsh**t Phil) is going to face another difficult budget.

It's worth noting the tories haven't had a successful budget since summer 2015; autumn 2015 had the tax credit fiasco, summer 2016 was the 'project fear' budget that angered the right, and the spring budget this year had the chaos of the National Insurance tax rise on small businesses.

I expect this current one will lead to some crisis; the government has such a small majority that 1 or 2 MPs can just cough some objection, and it virtually leads to a climbdown.

And well this would be hard in normal times, but Hammond has to deal with the black hole of Brexit and the mouth breathers on the right, whilst also trying to show that he understands that the Tories need some sort of electoral offer to both the young and the old.


However he could easily get sacked after the Budget, as a fair amount of tories are calling for him to be sacked; and replaced with Gove.

If Gove gets up to Chancellor, wouldn’t be a bit more likely to be the next Leader?

[Silent Hunter]

In the never ending combination of Brexit wars it looks like Phillip Hammond (nicknamed spreadsheet Phil, later revised to spreadsh**t Phil) is going to face another difficult budget.

It's worth noting the tories haven't had a successful budget since summer 2015; autumn 2015 had the tax credit fiasco, summer 2016 was the 'project fear' budget that angered the right, and the spring budget this year had the chaos of the National Insurance tax rise on small businesses.

I expect this current one will lead to some crisis; the government has such a small majority that 1 or 2 MPs can just cough some objection, and it virtually leads to a climbdown.

And well this would be hard in normal times, but Hammond has to deal with the black hole of Brexit and the mouth breathers on the right, whilst also trying to show that he understands that the Tories need some sort of electoral offer to both the young and the old.


However he could easily get sacked after the Budget, as a fair amount of tories are calling for him to be sacked; and replaced with Gove.

I thought Tory-DUP actually gives realistically a 6 seat cushion as the 7 Sinn Fein MPs have an abstentionist policy so they are never in the House to vote the government down.  If the Sinn Fein MPs actually showed up the government would be in much greater danger of falling as they only need to lose two by-elections which is probably likely prior to 2022 whereas losing 7 seems like a lot.  Do you know how many they lost between 1992-1997 and if they do lose 7, how long did it take as that would be good basis to go on.

The SNP, considering how they did in the last election, are not likely to vote for another one.

In other news, new Labour MP accused of sexist comments

[IceAgeComing]

Besides its a silly comparison: there's been a reduction in the number of by-elections in time (62 between 1959-1964; 30 between 1974O-1979, 24 between 1987-1992; 18 between 1992-1997; 14 between 2005-2010, and 21 between 2010-2015 - but that includes two by-elections where Tory MPs stood down after defecting to UKIP and a few where Sinn Fein MPs stood down to either end double jobbing or to contest Dail seats so I'd to loath to include them: also limiting my sample to parliaments that went at least four and a half years although the shortest lasting of these was the 1974-79 one) as MPs are typically younger, tend to live longer and are also healthier than they once were.

There's also the factor that the main difference between this parliament and the 1992-1997 one is that then the Tories went in to the parliament with a majority of over 20 which generally is workable in most cases and only lost that late in their term after eight by-election losses (four to the Liberals, three to Labour, one to the SNP: they retained no Tory-held by-election seats) and three defections (Alan Howarth to Labour, Emma Nicholson to the Liberals, and George Gardiner technically to the Referendum Party although he never spoke in parliament as a Referendum Party MP) while in this one they need to get a few opposition votes to pass anything, and the deal with the DUP isn't a coalition or anything strong: its supply and confidence and that's no guarantee for ordinary legislation.  Even in the 1992-1997 parliament it took until October 1996 for them to officially lose their majority for good (technically lost it a few times before that as they suspended the whip from Tory MPs, but they still mostly voted with the government in this time) and then they got through the next few months with support from the UUP.  The DUP aren't likely to pull their support from the Tories until after March 2019 but once they do the government is defeated: and the DUP - especially the parliamentary DUP which is incredibly old and very very odd - are exactly the sort of party that would probably pull their support over something incredibly odd.

[mileslunn]

In the never ending combination of Brexit wars it looks like Phillip Hammond (nicknamed spreadsheet Phil, later revised to spreadsh**t Phil) is going to face another difficult budget.

It's worth noting the tories haven't had a successful budget since summer 2015; autumn 2015 had the tax credit fiasco, summer 2016 was the 'project fear' budget that angered the right, and the spring budget this year had the chaos of the National Insurance tax rise on small businesses.

I expect this current one will lead to some crisis; the government has such a small majority that 1 or 2 MPs can just cough some objection, and it virtually leads to a climbdown.

And well this would be hard in normal times, but Hammond has to deal with the black hole of Brexit and the mouth breathers on the right, whilst also trying to show that he understands that the Tories need some sort of electoral offer to both the young and the old.


However he could easily get sacked after the Budget, as a fair amount of tories are calling for him to be sacked; and replaced with Gove.

I thought Tory-DUP actually gives realistically a 6 seat cushion as the 7 Sinn Fein MPs have an abstentionist policy so they are never in the House to vote the government down.  If the Sinn Fein MPs actually showed up the government would be in much greater danger of falling as they only need to lose two by-elections which is probably likely prior to 2022 whereas losing 7 seems like a lot.  Do you know how many they lost between 1992-1997 and if they do lose 7, how long did it take as that would be good basis to go on.

The SNP, considering how they did in the last election, are not likely to vote for another one.

In other news, new Labour MP accused of sexist comments

The MP who defeated Nick Clegg for all things.  Wonder how people will feel although probably won't matter.  I was wondering how come Nick Clegg survived the 2015 route but couldn't survive 2017?  Was it stronger youth turnout that did him in as I suspect some Tories probably tactically voted for him to stop a Labour win.

Also another new MP who is embarrassment is Laura Pidcock who said she won't hang out with Tories.  From what I've read on her she seems like a real left wing firebrand and SJW, sort of Britain's version of Niki Ashton here in Canada.

The other nutty one but has been around for a long time is Dennis Skinner who seems to be fairly far out there.  Ironically his constituency has become more competitive so the Tories might have a shot at it if he resigns or dies (he is in his 80s now).