UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[mileslunn]

I know it's always said that this is the worst week for a government in years, but this not only beats anything from 2010-2015, but also makes the week in October where the stage fall apart and TM started coughing look like a rather funny joke.

Both the Johnson and Patel incident are damaging to our international reputation, clearly broke the ministerial code, and frankly showed that both had absolutely awful judgement. Neither one has apologized, Pretti Patel has lied about 4 times (including to No.10) and it's just making us look like a complete joke.

The fact that No.10 won't fire either one (Patel should, and most likely will get sacked tomorrow if more comes out) makes me wonder what is the point in Theresa May being Prime Minister? I could understand if she cared about Brexit, or if she wanted to stop someone becoming Leader, but she's actively destroying what's left of her reputation

How come Labour only has a 2 point lead.  Last time the Tories were in as much trouble, Labour had double digit leads which suggests to me contrary to what many think a more centrist leader could lead to a much bigger win, while Corbyn excites the base, but makes many middle of the road voters who may not like the Tories uncomfortable to switch over to Labour.

[Angel of Death]

I dare say the United Kingdom is in a worse condition right now than it was during the Suez Crisis and it hasn't even left the EU yet.

[Blair]

I know it's always said that this is the worst week for a government in years, but this not only beats anything from 2010-2015, but also makes the week in October where the stage fall apart and TM started coughing look like a rather funny joke.

Both the Johnson and Patel incident are damaging to our international reputation, clearly broke the ministerial code, and frankly showed that both had absolutely awful judgement. Neither one has apologized, Pretti Patel has lied about 4 times (including to No.10) and it's just making us look like a complete joke.

The fact that No.10 won't fire either one (Patel should, and most likely will get sacked tomorrow if more comes out) makes me wonder what is the point in Theresa May being Prime Minister? I could understand if she cared about Brexit, or if she wanted to stop someone becoming Leader, but she's actively destroying what's left of her reputation

How come Labour only has a 2 point lead.  Last time the Tories were in as much trouble, Labour had double digit leads which suggests to me contrary to what many think a more centrist leader could lead to a much bigger win, while Corbyn excites the base, but makes many middle of the road voters who may not like the Tories uncomfortable to switch over to Labour.

Again a centrist leader doesn't equal a successful leader

[mileslunn]

I know it's always said that this is the worst week for a government in years, but this not only beats anything from 2010-2015, but also makes the week in October where the stage fall apart and TM started coughing look like a rather funny joke.

Both the Johnson and Patel incident are damaging to our international reputation, clearly broke the ministerial code, and frankly showed that both had absolutely awful judgement. Neither one has apologized, Pretti Patel has lied about 4 times (including to No.10) and it's just making us look like a complete joke.

The fact that No.10 won't fire either one (Patel should, and most likely will get sacked tomorrow if more comes out) makes me wonder what is the point in Theresa May being Prime Minister? I could understand if she cared about Brexit, or if she wanted to stop someone becoming Leader, but she's actively destroying what's left of her reputation

How come Labour only has a 2 point lead.  Last time the Tories were in as much trouble, Labour had double digit leads which suggests to me contrary to what many think a more centrist leader could lead to a much bigger win, while Corbyn excites the base, but makes many middle of the road voters who may not like the Tories uncomfortable to switch over to Labour.

Again a centrist leader doesn't equal a successful leader

So are you basically saying that no matter how badly the Tories mess up the best Labour can do is lead by a few points?  I don't think a centrist leader guarantees success, but it increases the number of voters open to voting for the party so they have a higher ceiling in terms of potential support.  Whether they manage to achieve that or not is a different story.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

ideology doesn't matter miles. Only political anoraks care whether somebody is left or right or centre.

[parochial boy]

I mean, if Labour are to win bac Nuneaton and Dover, it is not going to be by having a nice, centrist leader like Chuka Umunna. The state that Britain is in is definitely not one that calls for "moderate" social liberalism.

[mileslunn]

ideology doesn't matter miles. Only political anoraks care whether somebody is left or right or centre.

True, but policies do and if the change is quite radical from the status quo usually things have to be really bad before people will go for that.  I think the real question is with all the Tory mess up how come Labour cannot pull more than a few points ahead.  That suggests there is something with them that a sizeable contingent is not comfortable with.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

true, but that's more cause of Chuka in particular. I could certainly imagine a "moderate" leader winning a majority, just as much a a Corbynite; but that moderate wouldn't be Chuka Ummuna or Tristram Hunt, RIP, or whatever.

ideology doesn't matter miles. Only political anoraks care whether somebody is left or right or centre.

True, but policies do and if the change is quite radical from the status quo usually things have to be really bad before people will go for that.  I think the real question is with all the Tory mess up how come Labour cannot pull more than a few points ahead.  That suggests there is something with them that a sizeable contingent is not comfortable with.

personally I feel it's Corbyn's personality, rather than his policies. I'll admit he surprised me, but I still feel there's something a bit off about him that makes people feel he can't be PM.

[parochial boy]

true, but that's more cause of Chuka in particular. I could certainly imagine a "moderate" leader winning a majority, just as much a a Corbynite; but that moderate wouldn't be Chuka Ummuna or Tristram Hunt, RIP, or whatever.

Yeah, Chuka was exactly the sort of example of the kind of person who would be a terrible fit for the current politial climate.

But I do feel there is a case to be made that being centrist/moderate is almost something of a vote loser in the current political climate - if you have a big segment of the population for whom nationalist rhetoric appeals; and a big (often overlapping) number of people who are open to a radical eonomic agenda (see polling numbers on nationalisation or whatever), I don't think the current climate is particularly conducive to "moderates" (as opposed to centrists) whatever their personality is.

One thing that both the Brexit referendum and the 2017 GE seem to have shown is that the truism that elections are won from the centre, and the only way to win is by winning over Tory voters, is patently false. The results in both 2016 and 2017 were a lot to do with large numbers of normal non-voters turning out, and in particular the kind of non-voter who wouldn't bother with the normal kind of politician who sticks firmly inside the overton window.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think we shouldn't get mixed up between people who are moderate in temperament and those who are moderate in ideology.  I guess too many moderates are caught up in a mould that is deeply old hat: the slick confident Blairite; or else they swallow their own hype as a technocratic drone. This doesn't have to be true. Somebody like Paul Keating, for instance was on the right of his party and yet never strayed into such lame stereotypes. I think a Keating or a Denis Healey could do well in such an environment, not that it really matters. Maybe in a hilarious other timeline a bruiser like Tom Watson is currently leader, and Al is very happy.

[parochial boy]

In the context of 2017, I don't think that a Tom Watson or similar would have been ny more successful than Corbyn. He certainly wouldn't have been able to mobilise the same electorate.

As for whether it would be possible for someone like Watson or whoever  to win, that is more or less what I was getting at as the difference between Centrist and Moderate; but I don't think anyone closely associated with the Labour elite would have gone far in 2017.

Ultimately though, it's about selling a story more than specific policies, so yeah, the actual position on the spectrum doesn't matter - but there is still an appetite for the kind of radicalism, at least in rhetoric, and in either direction , that would have been toxic in the recent past

[parochial boy]

Also, neither Watson nor Healey are exactly Progress types - so touting them as moderates already says something about where the party has moved

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Also, neither Watson nor Healey are exactly Progress types - so touting them as moderates already says something about where the party has moved

I think we've reached the point where we can maybe consider deleting 'Old'/'Traditional' in front of Right, because for the most part that's all that's left. The original Labour Right of dear old Arthur Henderson.

[Blair]

Also, neither Watson nor Healey are exactly Progress types - so touting them as moderates already says something about where the party has moved

I mean I'd say that the vast majority of both Brownites and Blairites are moderates; in both 1994, and even during the days of the TB-GBs fued the only difference was who should be leader (and some ideological disagreements about the role of the market in public services) Of course those on the right of Progess (Liz Kendall) and those on the left of the Brownites (Ed Miliband) have bigger disagreements.

In a sense Labour party ideology tends to be shaped by whose in power; with a large chunk of the party following them, allies getting promoted, candidates getting picked.

I mean I voted for Burnham, Watson and Tessa Jowell for Leader/Deputy/London Mayor in 2015, and then voted for Owen Smith last summer. Which I suppose puts me on the soft right of the party? It just proves that inter-party ideologies are extremely confusing, and make little sense.

[Lumine]

Penny Mordaunt appointed International Development Secretary.

[DavidB.]

I love Priti Patel so much now.

[Leftbehind]

She is a gift that keeps on giving.

I know it's always said that this is the worst week for a government in years, but this not only beats anything from 2010-2015, but also makes the week in October where the stage fall apart and TM started coughing look like a rather funny joke.

Both the Johnson and Patel incident are damaging to our international reputation, clearly broke the ministerial code, and frankly showed that both had absolutely awful judgement. Neither one has apologized, Pretti Patel has lied about 4 times (including to No.10) and it's just making us look like a complete joke.

The fact that No.10 won't fire either one (Patel should, and most likely will get sacked tomorrow if more comes out) makes me wonder what is the point in Theresa May being Prime Minister? I could understand if she cared about Brexit, or if she wanted to stop someone becoming Leader, but she's actively destroying what's left of her reputation

How come Labour only has a 2 point lead.  Last time the Tories were in as much trouble, Labour had double digit leads which suggests to me contrary to what many think a more centrist leader could lead to a much bigger win, while Corbyn excites the base, but makes many middle of the road voters who may not like the Tories uncomfortable to switch over to Labour.

Has it escaped your attention the country is polarised at the moment? Polls show public opinion on Brexit is still evenly divided, and the collapse of third parties (be they centrist options for dissatisfied supporters to more comfortably defect to, or the soft/hard wings that weaken their side and allow for greater leads) as a consequence means the comparison is a non-starter. Were the Liberals still a viable option for many Tories (and their Brexit line not a complete repellent to most) you might see those leads, but they're not and you don't.

[Simfan34]

Victoria Atkins is definitely someone to keep an eye on. Her and Lucy Fraizer are two of the most promising members of the 2015 intake.

[Suburbia]

Priti Patel disappointed me. I saw her as a stronger Tory leader than May.

Does she have a political future in Britain? She could have made history.

[cp]

Priti Patel disappointed me. I saw her as a stronger Tory leader than May.

Does she have a political future in Britain? She could have made history.

Depends on what you mean by 'future'. She's not so tarnished that she couldn't return to cabinet, though probably not before the next Tory ministry (which is to say, probably not until the subsequent Labour government loses power). If she stayed active and respectable in non-Westminster political circles or in the non-profit sector, she could be made a peer in the House of Lords.

But as far as elected office goes, she's probably done.*

*Edit: To be clear, she's not done because what she did is so heinous. It's just that by the time she could be redeemed, newcomers will have risen far enough to be better positioned - and less tarnished - for a run at the leadership

[Blair]

Fascinating program by Steve Richards about turning points in British Politics (parts are a bit, well, academically weak) but it's still a brilliant watch for those interested.

Episode 3 is on John Smith's death.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09dlzr6/turning-points-unscripted-reflections-by-steve-richards-3-death-of-john-smith

[Kingpoleon]

Hey, guys, if Gove challenges May with the backing of Osborne(a friend of Gove's now, supposedly), among others such as Johnson,... would Michael Gove have a good chance of winning?

Gove and Johnson attempt “soft coup” against May.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-boris-johnson-theresa-may-michael-gove-secret-letter-a8050291.html


Between that and this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/09/amid-government-wreckage-michael-gove-quietly-starting-look/

And Gove’s apparent friendship with Osborne...

[Phony Moderate]

Well Gove is now the latest to put his foot in the deep stuff...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41960006

[DavidB.]

Some typical British upper-class antisemitism right here: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/prince-charles-blames-jews-middle-east-turmoil-1986-letter-a8050586.html.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Some typical British upper-class antisemitism right here: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/prince-charles-blames-jews-middle-east-turmoil-1986-letter-a8050586.html.

Meanwhile, there's this.

http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/local/localbrad/15652178.Fresh_anti_Semitism_row_as_Labour_shortlists_woman_who_faced_criticism_for_posts_about_Jews/

Labour is an institutionally anti-semitic party.