UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The DUP will vote to prop up the limpet Prime Minister, because of course.

So aside from wasting nearly a third of the remaining available time, delaying the vote by a month achieved... what exactly?

The plan may be to try again with even less time left and try to get it through via fear alone.

Tea Party tactics there, except emnating from the government.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The DUP will vote to prop up the limpet Prime Minister, because of course.

So aside from wasting nearly a third of the remaining available time, delaying the vote by a month achieved... what exactly?

The plan may be to try again with even less time left and try to get it through via fear alone.

Tea Party tactics there, except emnating from the government.

Yeah. I've been predicting - as a possibility not as a certainty, obviously - this to people in Real Life for about a year now.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Wow, the scale of that defeat is absolutely astonishing. I was expecting it to be seriously bad and underestimated the margin by 100...

The plan may be to try again with even less time left and try to get it through via fear alone.

Parliament has shown that it will intervene to prevent that running down the clock.

I honestly don't know what May will do. The only way the government can pass a deal is if she goes for Norway with the support of Labour, but then the Tory Party will split in half.

[Lumine]

Seems to me the only scenario in which Conservative MP - such as Soubry or Grieve - would give serious thought to toppling the Government in a VONC (which would instantly terminate their future within the Conservative Party) would be if May attempted to go through a No-Deal Brexit, and even then it's impossible to tell how many would do it.

The scale of the defeat is enormous, humilliating and about as resounding as it could be, and yet unless May actually decides to resign - which is about the one thing she's been consistent in opposing - it seems likely she'll manage to carry on to set out whatever Plan B is until the next crisis, blunder or backlash.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Parliament has shown that it will intervene to prevent that running down the clock.

Yes. But she may well try anyway...

[parochial boy]

The DUP will vote to prop up the limpet Prime Minister, because of course.

So aside from wasting nearly a third of the remaining available time, delaying the vote by a month achieved... what exactly?

The plan may be to try again with even less time left and try to get it through via fear alone.

Tea Party tactics there, except emnating from the government.

Yeah. I've been predicting - as a possibility not as a certainty, obviously - this to people in Real Life for about a year now.

See, I though that, but it would seem uncharacteristically... machiavellian for someone who, for most of her career, has given off the aura of being about as perceptive as a pile of bricks.

[LabourJersey]

The DUP will vote to prop up the limpet Prime Minister, because of course.

So aside from wasting nearly a third of the remaining available time, delaying the vote by a month achieved... what exactly?

The plan may be to try again with even less time left and try to get it through via fear alone.

Tea Party tactics there, except emnating from the government.

Yeah. I've been predicting - as a possibility not as a certainty, obviously - this to people in Real Life for about a year now.

See, I though that, but it would seem uncharacteristically... machiavellian for someone who, for most of her career, has given off the aura of being about as perceptive as a pile of bricks.

May is by no means a talented politician, but even the most incompetent British politician can come up with a plan to save their job/reputations

The question is whether she'll have the time for that to actually work

[President Johnson]

Just hope all this mess makes it clear to everyone in the European community what an awful idea it is the leave the EU, which is, despite its flaws, the best thing ever happend to the continent.

[Blair]

The problem for May is that Norway sees the ERG go nuclear (and NCV her) and No-Deal sees Remainer Tories like Boles/Morgan/Grieve do the same. So of course she'll go with 'I can't believe its not a backstop' fudge from the EU which moves about 20 or 30 nameless MPs.

Just hope all this mess makes it clear to everyone in the European community what an awful idea it is the leave the EU, which is, despite its flaws, the best thing ever happend to the continent.

And that the Article 50 process is designed to act as a vice around the balls of any government wanting to leave

[Suburbia]

Penny Mourdant would be a good Tory leader and Prime Minister

She is youthful, she could beat Corbyn.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Just hope all this mess makes it clear to everyone in the European community what an awful idea it is the leave the EU, which is, despite its flaws, the best thing ever happend to the continent.

I also think the EU should agree to just become a Free Trade Agreement rather than a semi-governmental body it seems like at times. I think that would be much better

[Zinneke]

Just hope all this mess makes it clear to everyone in the European community what an awful idea it is the leave the EU, which is, despite its flaws, the best thing ever happend to the continent.

I also think the EU should agree to just become a Free Trade Agreement rather than a semi-governmental body it seems like at times. I think that would be much better

You have it the wrong way round, the reason it is a semi-governmental body is to protect the FTA. For all the money spent on EU institutions, they probably save consumers much much more by guaranteeing the single market.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Strong and stable just had the worst government defeat ever.

[Pandaguineapig]

In an alternate world the DUP would have left the government, guaranteeing  a successful no-confidence motion and labour would hold a 20+ point lead on the Tories. All labour had to do for the alternate world to be a reality was to not make a hardcore anti-semite their leader

[Lechasseur]

Penny Mourdant would be a good Tory leader and Prime Minister

She is youthful, she could beat Corbyn.

I've never heard of her

[OSR stands with Israel]

Just hope all this mess makes it clear to everyone in the European community what an awful idea it is the leave the EU, which is, despite its flaws, the best thing ever happend to the continent.

I also think the EU should agree to just become a Free Trade Agreement rather than a semi-governmental body it seems like at times. I think that would be much better

You have it the wrong way round, the reason it is a semi-governmental body is to protect the FTA. For all the money spent on EU institutions, they probably save consumers much much more by guaranteeing the single market.

What about NAFTA just for Europe

[Middle-aged Europe]

Just hope all this mess makes it clear to everyone in the European community what an awful idea it is the leave the EU, which is, despite its flaws, the best thing ever happend to the continent.

I also think the EU should agree to just become a Free Trade Agreement rather than a semi-governmental body it seems like at times. I think that would be much better

You have it the wrong way round, the reason it is a semi-governmental body is to protect the FTA. For all the money spent on EU institutions, they probably save consumers much much more by guaranteeing the single market.

What about NAFTA just for Europe

But that already exists and is called EFTA.

Originally founded in the early 60s - ironically by the UK among other countries - as sort of an alternative to and competitor for the European Community, the majority of its members eventually decided to switch over to the EC/EU one after another until only Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein remained. Maybe the UK would also rejoin EFTA once it left the EU. But no other EU member states seems to inclined to switch back to EFTA.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's absolutely, utterly baffling that May has no intention to resign, and it's even more baffling that the people who voted no are not gonna force her to resign. It's like everyone is deliberately trying to make Brexit as much of an abominable mess as it could conceivably be.

[LabourJersey]

It's absolutely, utterly baffling that May has no intention to resign, and it's even more baffling that the people who voted no are not gonna force her to resign. It's like everyone is deliberately trying to make Brexit as much of an abominable mess as it could conceivably be.

The only thing the Tories hate more than the status quo is the thought of Prime Minister Corbyn.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It's absolutely, utterly baffling that May has no intention to resign, and it's even more baffling that the people who voted no are not gonna force her to resign. It's like everyone is deliberately trying to make Brexit as much of an abominable mess as it could conceivably be.

The only thing the Tories hate more than the status quo is the thought of Prime Minister Corbyn.

In the US this is similar to what is termed impeachment insurance (ie Nancy Pelosi or even Mike Pence depending on your perspective), in Britain it should be called no-confidence insurance.

[RaphaelDLG]

1) What are the realistic odds an early general election gets called in the next half-year?  

To the layman observer, seems not high, despite this debacle, as the conservative MPs logically wouldn't want to all lose their seats.

2) If that happens, and there is no majority again, what are the most likely coalitions/confidence and supply govs?

[Oryxslayer]

1) What are the realistic odds an early general election gets called in the next half-year?  

To the layman observer, seems not high, despite this debacle, as the conservative MPs logically wouldn't want to all lose their seats.

2) If that happens, and there is no majority again, what are the most likely coalitions/confidence and supply govs?

Chance of election is probably low, but something on my mind for a while is the "true chaos" result that might result from government. Something where it is mathematically impossible for the tories to form a govt (no majority for CON+DUP) but for LAB to form a government they need to bridge the gap between LAB+SNPs softer leave/remain and the DUPs harder leave. Or perhaps its even more complex, perhaps both options are still on the table, but they require the hard-Remain Libs (CON+DUP+LIB or LAB+SNP+LIB+DUP). Thinking of these chaos scenarios is perhaps why another election benefits nobody... except those like JRM who would be happy with the Crash Out scenario which would be the natural product of said chaos.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

1) What are the realistic odds an early general election gets called in the next half-year?

In the next 6 months? I would say very high due to the fact that 1) Remainer Tories have said they will resign the whip and collapse the government if it goes for No Deal, 2) the DUP have said they will end the C&S arrangement and bring down the government if it goes for a Brexit which involves the backstop or a different status for Northern Ireland, and 3) Tory Brexiteers will split the party if the government goes for a soft Brexit. So the only two routes for the government, either no dealing or softening the deal, both lose its majority in the Commons.

[Blair]

It's absolutely, utterly baffling that May has no intention to resign, and it's even more baffling that the people who voted no are not gonna force her to resign. It's like everyone is deliberately trying to make Brexit as much of an abominable mess as it could conceivably be.

The only thing the Tories hate more than the status quo is the thought of Prime Minister Corbyn.

Every Government thinks the leader of the opposition is the absolute worse incarnation of what that party can offer

[YL]

In an alternate world the DUP would have left the government, guaranteeing  a successful no-confidence motion and labour would hold a 20+ point lead on the Tories. All labour had to do for the alternate world to be a reality was to not make a hardcore anti-semite their leader

I can understand why you might have concerns about Corbyn (I do myself to some extent, though I'd much rather have him than Brexiteering Tories) but calling him a "hardcore anti-semite" is ridiculous and does your case no good whatsoever.