UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem
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  UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem
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Author Topic: UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem  (Read 215946 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #1625 on: January 16, 2019, 03:49:02 AM »

In an alternate world the DUP would have left the government, guaranteeing  a successful no-confidence motion and labour would hold a 20+ point lead on the Tories. All labour had to do for the alternate world to be a reality was to not make a hardcore anti-semite their leader

In an Alternate World May never blows her 20 point lead she had one month before election day in 2017. If that happens she wins a landslide and she would have had the mandate she needed
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DaWN
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« Reply #1626 on: January 16, 2019, 09:17:40 AM »

In an alternate world the DUP would have left the government, guaranteeing  a successful no-confidence motion and labour would hold a 20+ point lead on the Tories. All labour had to do for the alternate world to be a reality was to not make a hardcore anti-semite their leader

In an Alternate World May never blows her 20 point lead she had one month before election day in 2017. If that happens she wins a landslide and she would have had the mandate she needed

I'm not so sure. She obviously would have kept the majority with a better campaign, and probably increased it a little, but I think people disapproving of Corbyn grudgingly returning to Labour by election day was inevitable. My muother for instance hates Corbyn, but voted Labour in the end because she didn't want to even risk giving May the 400-seat landslide she wanted. The effect of this was inflated by the campaigns, but I think it was always going to be there (hindsight is of course a wonderful thing). It's also something I wouldn't bet too strongly on happening again, given Corbyn's previous year and a half of doing absolutely nothing at all to endear himself to those who didn't like him much and voted for him grudgingly, but since Labour appear to be at a higher starting point it probably won't matter as much.

I will say two things in general:
a) I think an election soon is unlikely
b) If there is an election soon, I would be very surprised if the result differed much from the 2017 one.

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Zinneke
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« Reply #1627 on: January 16, 2019, 10:50:55 AM »

Just hope all this mess makes it clear to everyone in the European community what an awful idea it is the leave the EU, which is, despite its flaws, the best thing ever happend to the continent.

I also think the EU should agree to just become a Free Trade Agreement rather than a semi-governmental body it seems like at times. I think that would be much better


You have it the wrong way round, the reason it is a semi-governmental body is to protect the FTA. For all the money spent on EU institutions, they probably save consumers much much more by guaranteeing the single market.


What about NAFTA just for Europe

But that already exists and is called EFTA.

Originally founded in the early 60s - ironically by the UK among other countries - as sort of an alternative to and competitor for the European Community, the majority of its members eventually decided to switch over to the EC/EU one after another until only Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein remained. Maybe the UK would also rejoin EFTA once it left the EU. But no other EU member states seems to inclined to switch back to EFTA.

With good reason, because a large part of the problems an FTA association like EFTA or NAFTA faces are to do with Rule of Origin, which is solved by a Customs Union.

Furthermore with common regulatory standards and a CU you can create a much more effective Single Market than with an FTA that recognises mutual recognition among partners. Even the Thatcherite dream of "mutual recognition" still actually implies nation-states can enact arbitrary regulatory laws (acting as Non-Tariff Barriers) that can get a certain product outlawed and favour substitutes that just so happen to be produced in the country.  

With the EU this is solved by having the MEPs here in Brussels regulate on all the environmental and health standards of the products so there is no imbalance across markets.  The price you pay is sovereignty of your own laws of course, as a supranational court has to judge on those common regulatory standards if they are violated (or its legislation has direct effect like in the EU). But the EU can either be painted as the largest failed state/supranational project in the world or the most successful FTA in the world. Going back to Brexit, and how vehemently the trade associations (the fabled "German car companies") were willing to defend EU integrity at the expense of the British market, its clear what perspective they take.

The rushed Euro, EU Enlargement, common foreign policy and the protracted EU army are different issues though, well worth eurosceptic scrutinising.  
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1628 on: January 16, 2019, 02:16:44 PM »

Motion of no confidence defeated by 325-306.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #1629 on: January 16, 2019, 02:22:29 PM »

Motion of no confidence defeated by 325-306.

Bugger.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1630 on: January 16, 2019, 02:27:13 PM »

For the record, that is basically a party line vote between the Conservatives and the DUP vs the rest.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1631 on: January 16, 2019, 02:30:20 PM »

For the record, that is basically a party line vote between the Conservatives and the DUP vs the rest.

Well, yes. It was a confidence vote. That's how they go.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #1632 on: January 16, 2019, 02:34:32 PM »

There was no chance of this measuring succeeding. Any Tory voting against the Government would have been expelled from the Party.
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YL
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« Reply #1633 on: January 16, 2019, 02:38:13 PM »

For the record, that is basically a party line vote between the Conservatives and the DUP vs the rest.

For the Government: 314 Tories plus 2 tellers, 10 DUP, plus Sylvia Hermon (Ind, North Down)

Against the government: everybody else, except the Speaker and Deputy Speakers, Sinn Féin, Paul Flynn (Lab, Newport West; too ill to attend the Commons), and three Independents who abstained, John Woodcock, Ivan Lewis and Fiona Onasanya.  Woodcock said he wasn't voting for No Confidence because of Corbyn.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #1634 on: January 16, 2019, 02:42:30 PM »

This is a tangent but do any of the British or Irish posters think that Sinn Féin's abstentionist policies are hurting them right now?

I don't think it's a good look that literally the only representatives of Northern Ireland present in Wetsminster are the DUP with one single exception, given how they don't represent the views of most Northern Irish people.

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1635 on: January 16, 2019, 02:57:25 PM »

This is a tangent but do any of the British or Irish posters think that Sinn Féin's abstentionist policies are hurting them right now?

I don't think it's a good look that literally the only representatives of Northern Ireland present in Wetsminster are the DUP with one single exception, given how they don't represent the views of most Northern Irish people.



That's why the SDLP , Alliance, and UUP exist. But they unfortunately didn't win any seats - the voters wanted the DUP and Sinn Fein.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #1636 on: January 16, 2019, 03:02:10 PM »

This is a tangent but do any of the British or Irish posters think that Sinn Féin's abstentionist policies are hurting them right now?

No.

I don't think it's a good look that literally the only representatives of Northern Ireland present in Wetsminster are the DUP with one single exception, given how they don't represent the views of most Northern Irish people.

Let me tell you about Irish republicanism and why swearing an oath of loyalty to the British monarch is a problem for them.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #1637 on: January 16, 2019, 04:09:51 PM »

This is a tangent but do any of the British or Irish posters think that Sinn Féin's abstentionist policies are hurting them right now?

No.

I don't think it's a good look that literally the only representatives of Northern Ireland present in Westminster are the DUP with one single exception, given how they don't represent the views of most Northern Irish people.

Let me tell you about Irish republicanism and why swearing an oath of loyalty to the British monarch is a problem for them.

I know why SF abstains and why that principle doesn't change.

 I'm just curious how NI voters who aren't unionists and didn't vote SF are feeling. They have literally no voice in politics right now even why they'll be effected the most drastically--how annoying must that be?
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The Free North
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« Reply #1638 on: January 16, 2019, 04:41:01 PM »

This is a tangent but do any of the British or Irish posters think that Sinn Féin's abstentionist policies are hurting them right now?

No.

I don't think it's a good look that literally the only representatives of Northern Ireland present in Westminster are the DUP with one single exception, given how they don't represent the views of most Northern Irish people.

Let me tell you about Irish republicanism and why swearing an oath of loyalty to the British monarch is a problem for them.

I know why SF abstains and why that principle doesn't change.

 I'm just curious how NI voters who aren't unionists and didn't vote SF are feeling. They have literally no voice in politics right now even why they'll be effected the most drastically--how annoying must that be?

And what percentage of those voters dont want to be in the UK regardless?
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Blair
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« Reply #1639 on: January 16, 2019, 04:53:52 PM »

Watch Tom Watson's speech at the end of the debate- a very underrated speaker, who's clearly not been used enough by Labour since 2015. Does the Parliamentary performance that Corbyn can never do.

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1085610232170999808

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Torrain
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« Reply #1640 on: January 24, 2019, 07:03:23 AM »

Alex Salmond, former First Minister of Scotland has been arrested.
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/alex-salmond-former-snp-leader-arrested-and-charged-11616043

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1641 on: January 24, 2019, 02:56:46 PM »


.........wow
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #1642 on: January 24, 2019, 04:40:52 PM »

JESUS FECKING CHRIST.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1643 on: January 25, 2019, 08:52:12 AM »

Update on the Salmond case.
Edinburgh Sheriff Court has released the charge sheet:


The BBC has a decent summary up: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-46984747
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YL
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« Reply #1644 on: January 29, 2019, 08:59:21 AM »

Fiona Onasanya, MP for Peterborough (elected as Labour but sitting as Independent since her conviction) has been sentenced to 3 months imprisonment for perverting the course of justice.

What this means:
- No automatic expulsion from Parliament (that would need a year's imprisonment).
- A recall petition can be started, and would need 10% of the electorate of the constituency to sign.  However, AIUI this has to wait until her appeal against the conviction is heard.
- She can't vote in the Commons while she's in prison.
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Lumine
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« Reply #1645 on: January 29, 2019, 09:36:14 AM »

Fiona Onasanya, MP for Peterborough (elected as Labour but sitting as Independent since her conviction) has been sentenced to 3 months imprisonment for perverting the course of justice.

What this means:
- No automatic expulsion from Parliament (that would need a year's imprisonment).
- A recall petition can be started, and would need 10% of the electorate of the constituency to sign.  However, AIUI this has to wait until her appeal against the conviction is heard.
- She can't vote in the Commons while she's in prison.

I get that Onasanya herself clearly has an alternate view of reality - like comparing herself and her predicament to Jesus - and that some have an interest in her remaining so she can vote, but still, she should have the decency to at least resign her seat. I strongly hope there's at least an eventual recall.
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YL
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« Reply #1646 on: January 29, 2019, 12:38:01 PM »

Fiona Onasanya, MP for Peterborough (elected as Labour but sitting as Independent since her conviction) has been sentenced to 3 months imprisonment for perverting the course of justice.

What this means:
- No automatic expulsion from Parliament (that would need a year's imprisonment).
- A recall petition can be started, and would need 10% of the electorate of the constituency to sign.  However, AIUI this has to wait until her appeal against the conviction is heard.
- She can't vote in the Commons while she's in prison.

I get that Onasanya herself clearly has an alternate view of reality - like comparing herself and her predicament to Jesus - and that some have an interest in her remaining so she can vote, but still, she should have the decency to at least resign her seat. I strongly hope there's at least an eventual recall.

Personally I lean towards saying that any MP who is convicted of an imprisonable offence should lose their seat.  If their constituents still want them as a representative, they can vote for them in the by-election.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1647 on: January 29, 2019, 01:37:02 PM »

The House can vote to expel, and probably ought to.
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #1648 on: January 29, 2019, 03:57:02 PM »

From what I understand from this latest round of voting, no deal has just become much more likely.
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Lumine
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« Reply #1649 on: January 29, 2019, 05:35:31 PM »

Seven amendments were voted on today, with the following results:

The Corbyn + Labour Frontbench amendment, ruling out No Deal and allowing the Commons to vote on other options including the mythical Labour Brexit Deal: Defeated 327 to 296

The SNP amendment, ruling out No Deal, extending Article 50, demanding greater involvement from Scotland and the regions and not taking Scotland out of the EU against its will: Defeated 39 to 327

The (Dominic) Grieve amendment, further empowering Parliament on Brexit and allowing for several days of debate and binding votes on amendments on alternative Brexit options: Defeated 321 to 301

The (Yvette) Cooper amendment, essentially ruling out No Deal by having the Govt. extend Article 50 all the way to December 31: Defeated 321 to 298

The (Rachel) Reaves amendment, requring the Government to postpone Brexit if a deal was not passed by the end of February: Defeated 322 to 290

The (Caroline) Spelman - (Jack) Dromey Amendment, symbolically rejecting a No-Deal Brexit: Passed 318 to 310 thanks to Conservative rebels

The (Graham) Brady Amendment, calling to support Theresa May's Brexit deal provided the backstop is replaced with "alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border": Passed 317 to 301 with the support of the DUP and 7 Labour rebels.

So on one hand the House of Commons has (symbolically and in non-binding fashion) rejected a No Deal Brexit, while at the same time giving May's Deal a majority provided she can get rid of the Backstop. Thus May technically has a mandate to try again and can point out that Parliament will approve her deal if the Backstop is removed... but the EU has made it clear the Deal is not up for renegotiation and that the backstop cannot be removed.
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