UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Kingpoleon]

I just realized the UK hasn't had a left wing government in nearly 40 years.
That is all.

This idea of Gordon Brown not being left wing is both bizarre and random.

[Kingpoleon]

So if May demotes Boris, who gets the Foreign Secretary slot?

Priti Patel, Nicky Morgan, Greg Hands, or Alberto Costa. Of those, I prefer Morgan.

[Kingpoleon]

In the never ending combination of Brexit wars it looks like Phillip Hammond (nicknamed spreadsheet Phil, later revised to spreadsh**t Phil) is going to face another difficult budget.

It's worth noting the tories haven't had a successful budget since summer 2015; autumn 2015 had the tax credit fiasco, summer 2016 was the 'project fear' budget that angered the right, and the spring budget this year had the chaos of the National Insurance tax rise on small businesses.

I expect this current one will lead to some crisis; the government has such a small majority that 1 or 2 MPs can just cough some objection, and it virtually leads to a climbdown.

And well this would be hard in normal times, but Hammond has to deal with the black hole of Brexit and the mouth breathers on the right, whilst also trying to show that he understands that the Tories need some sort of electoral offer to both the young and the old.


However he could easily get sacked after the Budget, as a fair amount of tories are calling for him to be sacked; and replaced with Gove.

If Gove gets up to Chancellor, wouldn’t be a bit more likely to be the next Leader?

[Kingpoleon]

Hey, guys, if Gove challenges May with the backing of Osborne(a friend of Gove's now, supposedly), among others such as Johnson, Hammond, and Rudd, would Michael Gove have a good chance of winning?

[Kingpoleon]

And Fallon was supposed to be a safe pair of hands lol (no pun intended).

Hey, guys, if Gove challenges May with the backing of Osborne(a friend of Gove's now, supposedly), among others such as Johnson, Hammond, and Rudd, would Michael Gove have a good chance of winning?

Not happening lol. Nobody trusts Gove anymore after he brutally backstabbed Johnson (why the flying f**k would Johnson even support Gove?) and the persons you are mentioning probably have a better chance challenging May themselves instead of letting Gove do it. But nobody really cares about Osborne anymore in the Conservative Party, Johnson isn't going to back the man who killed his chances to be PM in 2016 (and he wants to be leader himself) and Rudd is fairly loyal to May (and she also wants to be PM herself). I'm not sure where Hammond's loyalties lie, but I doubt that he would support a rebellion against May. And if they really wanted to get rid of May they'd find someone more suitable than Gove. Maybe Gove can be the fall guy that forces May to resign and triggers a leadership contest, but he wouldn't win the actual contest in that case. The fall guy never wins.

Bravo! Green, Hammond, Rudd, Johnson, and Davis are never going to agree on a candidate to overthrow May, and without all of them uniting to ensure she's taken out - either by agreeing on a candidate they will all endorse, or at least none of them will endorse someone else against - May can play them off one another handily. In my opinion, their best bet would be to get Elizabeth Truss or Greg Hands, or someone else low in the Cabinet, to run against May and then force out all the opponents. It would weaken May enough to where one of the upper Ministers could run.

[Kingpoleon]

Am I the only one who doesn't really care that Green had porn on his computer? Especially when compared to the very serious allegations with actual victims, it seems a bit of a hit job.

He will almost certainly lose his position for it. My question is: Who will replace him? Truss? Gove? Rudd?

[Kingpoleon]

May should probably take a risk and purge the cabinet to allow some fresh blood in. Inertia and survival for the sake of survival didn't help John Major, and it certainly won't help her at this stage.

She can’t afford to purge Rudd.

[Kingpoleon]

Hey, guys, if Gove challenges May with the backing of Osborne(a friend of Gove's now, supposedly), among others such as Johnson,... would Michael Gove have a good chance of winning?

Gove and Johnson attempt “soft coup” against May.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-boris-johnson-theresa-may-michael-gove-secret-letter-a8050291.html


Between that and this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/09/amid-government-wreckage-michael-gove-quietly-starting-look/

And Gove’s apparent friendship with Osborne...

[Kingpoleon]

It seems there's already 40 Tory MP's ready to sign a letter of no confidence on Theresa May (they would only need a few more signatures in that case):

https://news.sky.com/story/forty-conservative-mps-prepared-to-call-for-theresa-may-to-go-11123282

Your beloved Theresa May appointed Alan Duncan - an odious antisemite of the old school right-wing Arabist variety - to a ministerial post at the Foreign Office, which he continues to hold. Alas, the JC doesn't kick up a fuss about this (though actually it should) because its editor is almost as much of a hack for the Tories here as he is for Likud in an Israeli context. It's unfortunate.

Wait, Alan Duncan is an anti-semite?

If forty Tories are willing to threaten a vote of no confidence against the government unless May steps down... The real question there is whether or not May would call their bluff.

[Kingpoleon]

It seems there's already 40 Tory MP's ready to sign a letter of no confidence on Theresa May (they would only need a few more signatures in that case):

https://news.sky.com/story/forty-conservative-mps-prepared-to-call-for-theresa-may-to-go-11123282

If forty Tories are willing to threaten a vote of no confidence against the government unless May steps down... The real question there is whether or not May would call their bluff.

They're not talking about a Motion of No Confidence in Her Majesty's Government (though how anyone could have confidence in them at the moment beats me...); they're talking about a vote among Tory MPs about confidence in May as leader of the Conservative Party.

This is the first stage in the party's processes for getting rid of its leader, and was used in 2003 to get rid of Iain Duncan Smith.  Basically if 15% of the parliamentary party (48 MPs) send letters to the chair of the 1922 Committee calling for a vote on May's leadership, then there will be a vote (among Tory MPs).  If she lost that, then there'd be a full Tory leadership election (oh fun) and IIRC May would be barred from standing.

Yes, but if they can’t get to 48 for some reason, can’t even just ten or fifteen hold the government hostage by threatening a vote of no confidence against the government?

[Kingpoleon]

I’d like to see Nicky Morgan or Sajid Javid replace Green, but it’s more likely that it will be Rudd.

[Kingpoleon]

Does Robin Walker take over now?

[Kingpoleon]

https://twitter.com/TomBoadle/status/1027196810845216769?s=19


https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1027149853271437312?s=19

^^^ deeply depressing poll, I hate the face veil, I don't know why any women want to wear one,
but this is a free country, everyone should wear what they feel comfortable with,
I rarely ever come across women with a face veil, it's a total non issue, but most of the media are playing into the hands of Boris, by talking up the issue..

... And America’s the racist country?

[Kingpoleon]

I don’t think May or Cornyn will fall until the atmosphere is right for both of them to.

[Kingpoleon]

So May claims:
- She’s “absolutely committed to ensuring that we deliver no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland”
- She “would never agree to a deal which would trap the UK in a backstop permanently.”
- North Ireland’s “permanently separated economically from the rest of the UK by a border down the Irish Sea... is something [May] will never agree to – indeed, in [her] judgement it is something no British Prime Minister would ever agree to.“

So, no hard border in Ireland, no ocean border in the Irish Sea, and the United Kingdom will not remain in the customs union. Am I missing something?