UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[LabourJersey]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nireland-politics/ireland-britain-to-seek-to-re-establish-northern-ireland-talks-idUSKCN1FZ0U7

Can anyone with a better understanding of NI politics explain what this is means for May and/or the Brexit talks?

It seems that NI is really dominating british politics for the first time in a while

[LabourJersey]

The next general election is in 2022, correct?  Or is it still 2020?

The next election will be either when the parliamentary term ends (nominally June 2022, but the election would probably be in May) or whenever the current government loses confidence or collapses.

[LabourJersey]

how much does this increase the chances of a Hard Brexit?

[LabourJersey]

They don't seem to include the Tory voter breakdowns in leadership preferences.

Anyway if there's one thing I learned from meeting and engaging with British voters of most political stripes is that literally no one respects Boris Johnson or thinks he is anything but a joke and an idiot.

But then again Rees-Mogg is from 1885 and Ruth Davidson isn't in parliament, so there's really no else who can fill the vacuum that I'm aware of

[LabourJersey]

Can someone explain to me why the May conservative government is still a thing?

With all the cabinet chaos and all the seeming incompetence of the government in regards to BreXit, wouldn’t you think that a No confidence vote would be called and passed by the house (considering it is a minority government) .. or am I missing something?

This is a simplification, but there is no obvious, serious challenger to May within the Conservative party, so a no confidence vote on her leadership doesn't make sense.

Also, the Tories are fully aware that is a no confidence vote happens, the new leadership is going to be fractured, as it will be either a Hard Brexit faction or Soft Brexit one. Without this kind of agreement Parliament may dissolve.

Basically the Tories won't take action because they think if they kick off May, they will have a snap election and lose to Corbyn. Otherwise they can keep May in for now, and not have to worry until the 2022 elections (which they also will probably lose).

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1026050682103590913?s=19

^^ Couldn't be more true...

While this is true, is there really that much interest in moving the capital?

I think people would like it in the abstract, but moving the govt apparatus to Manchester or York or where-ever would be expensive and time consuming and thus unpopular

[LabourJersey]

It really is astonishing what a massive mistake May made when she called for a snap election.

If she hadn't done that this darn backstop would be set in stone, but now she just constantly have to give empty rhetoric and meaningless proposals because she can't afford to lose the 10 votes of reactionary hacks who actively work against the interests of their fellow Northern Irish.

[LabourJersey]

What do any of the British posters think is going to finally break the Northern Ireland impasse? It seems that any time there is even the slightest movement towards some solution May and the Tories have to immediately pull back.

[LabourJersey]

The DUP will vote to prop up the limpet Prime Minister, because of course.

So aside from wasting nearly a third of the remaining available time, delaying the vote by a month achieved... what exactly?

The plan may be to try again with even less time left and try to get it through via fear alone.

Tea Party tactics there, except emnating from the government.

Yeah. I've been predicting - as a possibility not as a certainty, obviously - this to people in Real Life for about a year now.

See, I though that, but it would seem uncharacteristically... machiavellian for someone who, for most of her career, has given off the aura of being about as perceptive as a pile of bricks.

May is by no means a talented politician, but even the most incompetent British politician can come up with a plan to save their job/reputations

The question is whether she'll have the time for that to actually work

[LabourJersey]

It's absolutely, utterly baffling that May has no intention to resign, and it's even more baffling that the people who voted no are not gonna force her to resign. It's like everyone is deliberately trying to make Brexit as much of an abominable mess as it could conceivably be.

The only thing the Tories hate more than the status quo is the thought of Prime Minister Corbyn.

[LabourJersey]

This is a tangent but do any of the British or Irish posters think that Sinn Féin's abstentionist policies are hurting them right now?

I don't think it's a good look that literally the only representatives of Northern Ireland present in Wetsminster are the DUP with one single exception, given how they don't represent the views of most Northern Irish people.

[LabourJersey]

This is a tangent but do any of the British or Irish posters think that Sinn Féin's abstentionist policies are hurting them right now?

No.

I don't think it's a good look that literally the only representatives of Northern Ireland present in Westminster are the DUP with one single exception, given how they don't represent the views of most Northern Irish people.

Let me tell you about Irish republicanism and why swearing an oath of loyalty to the British monarch is a problem for them.

I know why SF abstains and why that principle doesn't change.

 I'm just curious how NI voters who aren't unionists and didn't vote SF are feeling. They have literally no voice in politics right now even why they'll be effected the most drastically--how annoying must that be?

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1100158795894980610

Thats a bit...shocking?

5% between Labour and a 'party' that formed 2 weeks ago?

There's 17% of the electorate unaccounted for...I'd be really skeptical about this.

Obviously this is a bit of a low spot for Labour, but there's no chance they only win 23% of the general vote in the next election

[LabourJersey]

So at this point, is there any possible deal that a majority of Parliament could agree on?

It seems to me that the Hard Brexiteers aren't giving an inch from their bizarre demands, (presumably because they won't mind a hard Brexit?) and Labour seems convinced they could somehow get or create a better deal than May's, which is a plan I still don't understand.