UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Oryxslayer]

I also think a new election would be a hard sell to both parties - Tories from both sides of the debate probably prefer a Tory govt to a labour one, and there is a good chance an election would return an even more unworkable parliament without a clear winner. I suspect the twin camps are just suggesting no confidence to force May towards their position. It seems that after this round of maneuvering the UK will just continue to sail towards a 'No Deal" situation.

Or govt may collapse tomorrow, I'm in the US, I just read the papers.

[Oryxslayer]

This is absolutely perfect for Labour: May survives as PM with her authority permanently wounded but guaranteed to lead the Tories into a snap election.

Why exactly would the Tories willingly surrender power to Labour, because thats what a true confidence vote would do. As a viewer from across the pond, my view for a while has been that the only meaningful votes the Tories could win were no- confidence motions. Everyone, from the hardcore Brexiteers to the DUP prefer this travesty of a government where they actually have strings to pull, rather then Labour where they have none.

Since 2017 May has been leading a zombie government. The only things her party can agree on are that they are better the Labour and May, a political corpse, should get all the blame for Brexit rather then some untainted member. Maybe the latter has changed, but I don't see why the former has.

[Oryxslayer]

Why exactly would the Tories willingly surrender power to Labour, because thats what a true confidence vote would do.

Because the parliamentary arithmetic currently means that there is no Brexit deal which can command the majority of parliament, so it's either a general election to change that arithmetic or wave no deal through.

Maybe then I'm more pessimistic then you then, I expect the Tories in such a scenario to begrudgingly accept a 'no deal' scenario and maintain power until 2022, rather then cave now and lose power for an unknown period of time.

[Oryxslayer]

May wins the confidence vote

200 Yes to 117 No

She will be a lame duck now, not enough support from the backbenchers

She has been a lame duck since 2017.

[Oryxslayer]

So now Corbyn tables a VONC, May looses, and we have a snap general election with May in charge of the campaign.

What could possibly go wrong.

But would enough of the Conservatives who voted against May in this vote also vote against her in a vote among Parliament as a whole?

Not likely. Unless the overall goal is chaos, at which point the Tories might publically stab each other to force a new election and even more chaos.

So now Corbyn tables a VONC, May looses, and we have a snap general election with May in charge of the campaign.

What could possibly go wrong.

But would enough of the Conservatives who voted against May in this vote also vote against her in a vote among Parliament as a whole?

The Conservatives do not have enough votes, they have a minority government propped up by the  DUP.  And the DUP have already stated they will vote against her if she continues pushing her backstop arrangement.

But the DUP also said they would protect May in a VONC, which also protects their influence. Regardless of what happens the DUP does not want to lose the power they have right now - which happens under a VONC.

[Oryxslayer]

What % do you give the no confidence of succeeding? 25%? 33%? The Tories won't willingly hand power to Corbyn, so it requires either a DUP betrayal or the Tories supporting a new election.

Edit: DUP state they will back May, so I put the % now even lower maybe 15%

[Oryxslayer]

1) What are the realistic odds an early general election gets called in the next half-year?  

To the layman observer, seems not high, despite this debacle, as the conservative MPs logically wouldn't want to all lose their seats.

2) If that happens, and there is no majority again, what are the most likely coalitions/confidence and supply govs?

Chance of election is probably low, but something on my mind for a while is the "true chaos" result that might result from government. Something where it is mathematically impossible for the tories to form a govt (no majority for CON+DUP) but for LAB to form a government they need to bridge the gap between LAB+SNPs softer leave/remain and the DUPs harder leave. Or perhaps its even more complex, perhaps both options are still on the table, but they require the hard-Remain Libs (CON+DUP+LIB or LAB+SNP+LIB+DUP). Thinking of these chaos scenarios is perhaps why another election benefits nobody... except those like JRM who would be happy with the Crash Out scenario which would be the natural product of said chaos.

[Oryxslayer]

For the record, that is basically a party line vote between the Conservatives and the DUP vs the rest.

[Oryxslayer]

This is a tangent but do any of the British or Irish posters think that Sinn Féin's abstentionist policies are hurting them right now?

I don't think it's a good look that literally the only representatives of Northern Ireland present in Wetsminster are the DUP with one single exception, given how they don't represent the views of most Northern Irish people.

That's why the SDLP , Alliance, and UUP exist. But they unfortunately didn't win any seats - the voters wanted the DUP and Sinn Fein.