Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 15, 2019, 07:21:52 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  General Politics
  International General Discussion (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash, Roy Rogers McFreely)
  So how long before Theresa May gets the boot?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: So how long before Theresa May gets the boot?  (Read 771 times)
Lincoln Republican
Winfield
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,881


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: June 09, 2017, 07:04:52 pm »

After such an abysmal election performance on her part, and after such a devastatingly poor result for the Conservatives, how long before Theresa May gets the boot?

Please discuss.
Logged
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39,800
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2017, 08:13:40 pm »

What is the current procedure under Conservative Party rules for kicking out a leader who doesn't want to go?
Logged
Lincoln Republican
Winfield
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,881


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2017, 08:49:37 pm »

What is the current procedure under Conservative Party rules for kicking out a leader who doesn't want to go?


British political parties, at least the major ones, are historically not very tolerant of a leader who blows an election as May did this one.

The leader in these cases often resigns or possibly faces a back bench revolt.

 
Logged
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39,800
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2017, 09:03:13 pm »

What is the current procedure under Conservative Party rules for kicking out a leader who doesn't want to go?


British political parties, at least the major ones, are historically not very tolerant of a leader who blows an election as May did this one.

The leader in these cases often resigns or possibly faces a back bench revolt.

 

Yeah, but what is the actual mechanism?  In Australia, not too long ago, the caucus of either major party in Parliament could move to hold a leadership election at any time, and just vote in a new leader in one day, so a coup could happen pretty much instantly.  This is no longer the case for the Labor Party, so a coup would now be a more drawn out, bloody affair, and it's harder to get rid of a struggling leader.

What about the UK?  IIRC, in Thatcher's day it was pretty easy, but now it's become more complicated, because the wider membership of the party is involved as well?
Logged
Hammy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,232
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 09, 2017, 09:34:55 pm »

As far as I know, the primary procedure should May refuse to go would be a leadership challenge for party leader.
Logged
mvd10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,760


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: June 10, 2017, 05:44:31 am »

The problem is that a leadership challenge could take months while the Brexit negotiations already started. May probably will resign if there is a leadership challenge with significant backbench support, but that would lead to other people jumping in. And I don't see a 2016 scenario where May was the overwhelming favorite while Leadsom stumbled from gaffe to gaffe and had almost no support in the parliamentary party. An election with Davis, Johnson, Hammond and Rudd probably won't end up like a walk-over.
Logged
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39,800
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: June 10, 2017, 06:21:47 am »

As far as I know, the primary procedure should May refuse to go would be a leadership challenge for party leader.

That's not a real answer.  Tongue

I'm asking what is the leadership challenge procedure.  How does it work?  In some parliamentary systems, you just hold a vote of the MPs of that party, and it's over in a day.  In others, it's a more drawn out affair, that involves the wider party membership, and can take months.  I think for the UK Conservative Party, it's the latter, but I'm asking if someone can offer specifics.
Logged
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39,800
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: June 10, 2017, 04:41:28 pm »

Also, is there any precedent for a party winning a plurality of seats in a UK election, and forming the government (even in coalition with another party), yet still dumping the PM immediately after the election?
Logged
Lincoln Republican
Winfield
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,881


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: June 10, 2017, 10:25:06 pm »

In this thread, I am attempting to determine how long members of this forum believe it will be before Theresa May either resigns the Conservative leadership or is forced out, or if at all.
Logged
NewYorkExpress
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,662
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: June 10, 2017, 10:36:36 pm »

In this thread, I am attempting to determine how long members of this forum believe it will be before Theresa May either resigns the Conservative leadership or is forced out, or if at all.

She doesn't seem interested in resigning, so if goes, it will be by the way of Thatcher (booted by her own party)
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC