The elephant in the room, that Democrats are trying to ignore

[Blue3]

Based on exit polling:

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To summarize the exit polling data:

Democrats need to win over Older, Richer, College-Educated White Conservatives, as well as African-Americans and Hispanics, who are mostly Evangelical or Catholic, who care about supporting the Wall and the Ban more than they care about the economy or foreign policy (or the president being caring or having good judgment).... particularly in swing states like those in the Midwest as well as Florida.

How in the world does that happen... any takers?






And if your solution is to get the people who didn't vote to vote Democratic...

If Donald Trump, and his ideas like the Wall and the Ban and Coal/Oil and School Privatization and willing to entertain ending alliances like NATO, as well as his (lack of) personal integrity/competence/empathy, didn't motivate them enough to vote in 2016... then what?

Back in February, when the Travel Ban was new, a majority of Americans supported it. Haven't seen recent polling on it. But that goes to show what we're up against.

Trump was an extreme, a known extreme. If those issues didn't motivate those who didn't vote, what will?

Hillary did stand on her own. When she tried to talk policy, the media would cut away from her speeches, and would never talk about the substance. That doesn't mean she didn't campaign on the issues. Trump was an extreme, and he didn't motivate those people enough to vote.





This is the elephant in the room. What do Democrats do about it?

[Blue3]

Apparently people here are refusing to acknowledge the elephant in the room too... it's not like I made up this data.

[Hindsight was 2020]

People can we stop using a presidential election to predict a midterm

[136or142]

1.The exit polls on the Latino vote is not backed up by the actual vote.  For instance, Hillary Clinton did slightly better in states with large Latino populations like Texas and Arizona (and Trump did much worse.)

2.Similarly, the exit polls and the wealth of Trump voters also don't seem to fully match up.  As I read from one person on a different message board, in so far as many Trump voters seem to be concerned about their status, it's not a stretch to believe they would overstate their actual wealth when responding to exit polls.

3.That Hillary Clinton did not do as well with blacks as President Obama is not really a surprise. There is also considerable evidence that Republican voter suppression efforts in some states (especially Wisconsin) reduced black turnout (in those states.)

4.Donald Trump did no where near as well with white college educated voters as the Republican Presidential candidate normally does.

[Blue3]

People can we stop using a presidential election to predict a midterm

I'm not talking about midterms... just US Politics in general

[Beet]

What would you suggest, Blue?

[136or142]

People can we stop using a presidential election to predict a midterm

I'm not talking about midterms... just US Politics in general

In regards to Trump being an extreme outlier, you also overlook the degree of lazy thinking of (nearly every) journalist and many voters with the concept expressed during the campaign that 'both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump do it" and that 'both are equally bad.'

[RI]

1.The exit polls on the Latino vote is not backed up by the actual vote.  For instance, Hillary Clinton did slightly better in states with large Latino populations like Texas and Arizona (and Trump did much worse.)

The majority of the areas which swung strongly toward Clinton in TX and AZ were very white.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Surely the answer is to contort one's positions on the issues in order to achieve the support of as many different demographics as possible.

[Technocracy Timmy]

None of that seems too surprising.

But these are exit polls so always take them with a grain of salt.

[136or142]

1.The exit polls on the Latino vote is not backed up by the actual vote.  For instance, Hillary Clinton did slightly better in states with large Latino populations like Texas and Arizona (and Trump did much worse.)

The majority of the areas which swung strongly toward Clinton in TX and AZ were very white.

Thanks.  I'll look into that some more then.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The most striking thing about the exit polling to me is how it shows that the major determinant for white voters was whether one was unskilled labor, in the trades, or in the professions. The unskilled were basically unchanged, the trades went strongly for Trump, and professions were somewhat anti-Trump. Basically, it was people who hadn't prospered the last few decades and yet felt they should have who were unreceptive to Clinton's message of four more years and saw nothing to lose and potentially everything to gain by taking a risk by voting Trump. Having made their choice, it's going to take a considerable dislocation for them to remake it. As chaotic as Trump's Presidency has been so far, there's been nothing that would cause them to rechoose in large numbers yet.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

the difference is in the margin over time. Sure, Secretary Clinton might have 'won' these demographics. But this isn't some weird Confederation of the Classes where poor people get a vote, the rich get a vote, and the middle class get a vote. What the data shows is that Secretary Clinton did comparatively worse with poor people than President Obama, and the Dem vote share among the working poor to lower middle class has been on a pretty long decline.

TL;DR: Sounds like your analysis needs a bit more nuance, but okay.

[Person Man]

Easy. We wait until they are ready to listen again. At this rate, they will be.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Easy. We wait until they are ready to listen again. At this rate, they will be.

Why will they be? The reasons why they weren't listening to Clinton are unchanged. None of the political circus of the past half year affects the reasons why they tuned out Clinton.

[Person Man]

Easy. We wait until they are ready to listen again. At this rate, they will be.

Why will they be? The reasons why they weren't listening to Clinton are unchanged. None of the political circus of the past half year affects the reasons why they tuned out Clinton.

but eventually... and there will be no faces. Obama's policies weren't that much different than what Kerry campaigned on its just that people were ready to listen.

I am guessing the default conclusion here is that the voters who caused Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan to go for Trump when they once put Obama over the top now find Democrats completely unacceptable. 

[Xing]

A lot of people voted for Trump because they were unhappy with the status quo and wanted "change" (whatever the hell that means.) Some people are perpetually unhappy with the way things are, and in order to win over more of those voters, Democrats need to offer a clear and different vision going forward.

[Person Man]

A lot of people voted for Trump because they were unhappy with the status quo and wanted "change" (whatever the hell that means.) Some people are perpetually unhappy with the way things are, and in order to win over more of those voters, Democrats need to offer a clear and different vision going forward.

I think there was a non-inconsequential number of voters who voted for Trump out of boredom because he is so provocative.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Easy. We wait until they are ready to listen again. At this rate, they will be.

Why will they be? The reasons why they weren't listening to Clinton are unchanged. None of the political circus of the past half year affects the reasons why they tuned out Clinton.

but eventually... and there will be no faces. Obama's policies weren't that much different than what Kerry campaigned on its just that people were ready to listen.

In case you hadn't noticed, the housing market and the rest of the economy imploded in 2007-8. That was why people were ready to embrace change in the 2008 election.

[Person Man]

Easy. We wait until they are ready to listen again. At this rate, they will be.

Why will they be? The reasons why they weren't listening to Clinton are unchanged. None of the political circus of the past half year affects the reasons why they tuned out Clinton.

but eventually... and there will be no faces. Obama's policies weren't that much different than what Kerry campaigned on its just that people were ready to listen.

In case you hadn't noticed, the housing market and the rest of the economy imploded in 2007-8. That was why people were ready to embrace change in the 2008 election.

There is always something else to come along. Especially now.

[GoTfan]

Easy. We wait until they are ready to listen again. At this rate, they will be.

Why will they be? The reasons why they weren't listening to Clinton are unchanged. None of the political circus of the past half year affects the reasons why they tuned out Clinton.

but eventually... and there will be no faces. Obama's policies weren't that much different than what Kerry campaigned on its just that people were ready to listen.

In case you hadn't noticed, the housing market and the rest of the economy imploded in 2007-8. That was why people were ready to embrace change in the 2008 election.

There is always something else to come along. Especially now.

Are you seriously hoping for another crash just to win an election?

[136or142]

Easy. We wait until they are ready to listen again. At this rate, they will be.

Why will they be? The reasons why they weren't listening to Clinton are unchanged. None of the political circus of the past half year affects the reasons why they tuned out Clinton.

but eventually... and there will be no faces. Obama's policies weren't that much different than what Kerry campaigned on its just that people were ready to listen.

In case you hadn't noticed, the housing market and the rest of the economy imploded in 2007-8. That was why people were ready to embrace change in the 2008 election.

There is always something else to come along. Especially now.

Are you seriously hoping for another crash just to win an election?

If President Trump's economic policies get implemented, they'll bring on another crash.

[GoTfan]

Easy. We wait until they are ready to listen again. At this rate, they will be.

Why will they be? The reasons why they weren't listening to Clinton are unchanged. None of the political circus of the past half year affects the reasons why they tuned out Clinton.

but eventually... and there will be no faces. Obama's policies weren't that much different than what Kerry campaigned on its just that people were ready to listen.

In case you hadn't noticed, the housing market and the rest of the economy imploded in 2007-8. That was why people were ready to embrace change in the 2008 election.

There is always something else to come along. Especially now.

Are you seriously hoping for another crash just to win an election?

If President Trump's economic policies get implemented, they'll bring on another crash.

That's not what I asked, is it?

[Santander]

How Democrats plan to deal with their "Older, Richer, College-Educated Whites problem":

• Obamacare death panels to speed up their expiry - this takes care of the "old" part
• Raise their taxes to punitive rates - this takes care of the "rich" part
  (Even better, make them pay a death tax after the Obamacare death panel kills them)
• Use affirmative action to lock their kids out of college and jobs - this takes care of the "college-educated" part

The Democrats see the elephant in the room. They're just working on confiscating the right gun to shoot it.

[136or142]

Easy. We wait until they are ready to listen again. At this rate, they will be.

Why will they be? The reasons why they weren't listening to Clinton are unchanged. None of the political circus of the past half year affects the reasons why they tuned out Clinton.

but eventually... and there will be no faces. Obama's policies weren't that much different than what Kerry campaigned on its just that people were ready to listen.

In case you hadn't noticed, the housing market and the rest of the economy imploded in 2007-8. That was why people were ready to embrace change in the 2008 election.

There is always something else to come along. Especially now.

Are you seriously hoping for another crash just to win an election?

If President Trump's economic policies get implemented, they'll bring on another crash.

That's not what I asked, is it?

No, but you didn't ask that to me.