What would have happened if George Wallace had not been shot in 1972?

[Dudeman]

Despite being shot, Wallace only lost the Democratic nomination by 2%.   I really had no idea he had been doing so well until I read the wiki article. It certainly seems possible that Wallace might have won the nomination had he not been shot.

What would have happened if Wallace had won the primary? Would Nixon have still done his "Southern Strategy" to attract angry white men? Would Obama have been able to win the Democratic nomination decades later, since Wallace probably would have stopped the flight of racist white guys to the Republican Party? (And maybe even would have caused some people like Helms and Thurmond who had already switched parties to return to the Democrats.)

[SingingAnalyst]

Would the movie "The Taxi Driver" (1976) (which I have never seen) have been made?

Wasn't it based loosely on the life of Arthur Bremer (Wallace's would-be assassin?)

[SingingAnalyst]

IRL, Wallace won the MI primary with 51% on May 16-- the day after his attempted assassination.

Had Wallace won the Dem nomination, he probably would have lost badly to Nixon, probably holding only AL and MS. Gallup showed Nixon defeating Wallace 69%-23% in a 2-way matchup. In the South, Nixon beat Wallace by at least 20 points. (White Southerners loved Agnew). Among Blacks, Nixon beat Wallace 68%-15% in this hypothetical matchup-- and among newly enfranchised 18-20 year olds, Nixon beat Wallace 84%-12%.

By 1972, Wallace was a "zero" among 18-20 year olds, either as a Dem or as a third party challanger.

The Dems almost certainly were aware of these polls and would have done what they could have to stop Wallace.  Either way, the evolution of the parties probably would have taken place as IRL.

[Kingpoleon]

Nixon sweeps everywhere but AL and MS. SC, GA, FL, LA, MA, RI, and WV are all within 5-10% and are the next closest states.