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Author Topic: 2018: PA Governor's Race  (Read 2101 times)
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« on: June 13, 2017, 11:28:13 pm »
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My picks:

(D): Tom Wolf
(R): Scott Wagner

Also, I will be voting against the incumbent Governor Tom Wolf, and hope he goes down. It should be a close race though.

My prediction for this race:

Wolf (D): 52%
Wagner (R): 48%
« Last Edit: June 14, 2017, 12:14:24 am by Spark498 »Logged









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« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2017, 06:13:23 am »
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Wagner is far too conservative for my generally centrist tastes..... So - rooting for Wolf
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« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2017, 08:51:56 am »
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Wolf will win reelection with about the same margin than he got elected in 2014. The bench of strong GOPers is very thin. He may have been in trouble with President Clinton. As of now, lean to likely D.
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« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2017, 12:19:20 pm »
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Leans D. While Trump won Pennsylvania, he won it by less than a percent, and at the same time, Democrats won all the statewide offices that were up. Add incumbancy to that, and he should be slightly favored. And Scott Wagner seems too conservative for Pennsylvania. I don't see anything changing unless a better Republican enters.
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« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2017, 10:47:36 am »
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Wolf 51-46%
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« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2017, 02:08:06 pm »
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Hard to see Wolf losing, he ran very well in western PA in 2014. If the Philly area is as D as 2016, no way GOP will get Trump like margins in SW PA against him.
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« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2017, 03:47:22 pm »
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I don't see Wolf losing in any scenario.
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« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2017, 03:50:02 pm »
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Wolf wins comfortably. Trump's fluke in the state didn't miraculously turn Pennsylvania purple overnight.
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« Reply #8 on: June 16, 2017, 06:16:22 am »
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Wolf wins comfortably. Trump's fluke in the state didn't miraculously turn Pennsylvania purple overnight.

PA has long been purple.

The problem for the Republicans was that they could never win back enough of the Philly burbs or get enough out of the rest of the state to counteract the losses there, until 2016 when the latter largely happened. This is why they always came close but fell short in the end in 2000 and 2004.

Republicans have also traditionally nominated candidates like Bush, McCain and Romney, who were bad fits for both the burbs and the Casey Democrats in the rest of the state (NE, NW And SW PA), until Trump who was a great fit for the latter.

The Philly burbs are basically finishing up their transformation, thus the decline in GOP performance in low turnout elections like for court, but the transition of those former Dems in the rest of the state is many cycles away from that stage and thus still willing to vote for homeboy Democrats and probably still winning to vote for Wolf.

Though it should be noted that Casey of all people collapsed spectacularly in Western PA in 2012, against a really dreadful candidate and Toomey also won Erie and Luzerne Counties, both of which he lost in 2010, so it is more than just Trump, it is a long term process.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2017, 06:18:30 am by People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee »Logged

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« Reply #9 on: June 16, 2017, 06:37:32 am »
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^Exactly. I'd rate it Tilt D at this point, but Wolf definitely isn't "safe". Let's not forget that Corbett lost in a landslide despite the fact that an unpopular Democrat was president at that time. These gubernatorial races aren't easy to nationalize.
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« Reply #10 on: June 16, 2017, 06:45:34 am »
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I mean, Wolf is unpopular and probably would be losing with HRC president but the president is Trump, so he should be fine: Lean dem.


I agree witj everything Yankee has said. I just would like to add that it seems to me that Trump won PA because his voters massively turn out, I don't think republicans will be able to replicate that in 2018 and 2020.

PA isn't going to become a GOp stronghold, it's more likely going to remain a purple state.
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« Reply #11 on: June 16, 2017, 05:38:36 pm »
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Lean D. Costello, Dent, Fitzpatrick(either one), or Cawley make this between Tilt R and Tossup, depending on which one enters. Gerlach, Greenwood, Hart, Platts, English, Kelly, Meehan, and Murphy would be good nominees, too.

TL;DR: Listing a bunch of moderate Pennsylvania Representatives
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« Reply #12 on: June 17, 2017, 02:22:48 am »
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I mean, Wolf is unpopular and probably would be losing with HRC president but the president is Trump, so he should be fine: Lean dem.


I agree witj everything Yankee has said. I just would like to add that it seems to me that Trump won PA because his voters massively turn out, I don't think republicans will be able to replicate that in 2018 and 2020.

PA isn't going to become a GOp stronghold, it's more likely going to remain a purple state.

Turnout was a factor, but he also flipped a lot of votes as well.

He outperformed Romney by about 300,000 votes. Clinton under performed Obama by about 70,000.
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« Reply #13 on: June 17, 2017, 08:46:54 am »
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I'd rate it likely D. It's going to be very hard for Republicans to take down an incumbent governor in a swing state during a Trump mid-term, and there isn't a Paterno-level scandal to mobilize non-ideological voters
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« Reply #14 on: July 21, 2017, 06:16:17 pm »
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Wagner is far too conservative for my generally centrist tastes..... So - rooting for Wolf
Wolf is consider the most liberal governor in the country.
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« Reply #15 on: August 12, 2017, 04:14:41 pm »
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Wolf will win reelection with about the same margin than he got elected in 2014. The bench of strong GOPers is very thin. He may have been in trouble with President Clinton. As of now, lean to likely D.

I'm assuming that you don't live in Pennsylvania because of you did there is no way you would think that Wolf is going to win reelection. He won last time because he was up against an extremely unpopular Republican who gutted the Education system. Please explain why you think Wolf won again.
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« Reply #16 on: August 12, 2017, 05:25:45 pm »
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At this point, I expect my endorsement will be for Mr. Wolf, and expect him to win.
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« Reply #17 on: August 12, 2017, 11:29:37 pm »
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« Reply #18 on: August 25, 2017, 04:15:55 pm »
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Another Wagner rant. Maybe he's trying to outdo Trump by running an openly anti-Semitic campaign.
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« Reply #19 on: August 25, 2017, 06:42:15 pm »
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If more people approve than disapprove of him in a politically polarized state like Pennsylvania, it's hard to see him going down. Likely D, but closer to Lean that Safe.
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« Reply #20 on: August 26, 2017, 03:07:21 am »
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Wagner is far too conservative for my generally centrist tastes..... So - rooting for Wolf
Wolf is consider the most liberal governor in the country.
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« Reply #21 on: August 26, 2017, 11:13:42 am »
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Wagner is far too conservative for my generally centrist tastes..... So - rooting for Wolf
Wolf is consider the most liberal governor in the country.

Huh?

Wolf will win reelection with about the same margin than he got elected in 2014. The bench of strong GOPers is very thin. He may have been in trouble with President Clinton. As of now, lean to likely D.

I'm assuming that you don't live in Pennsylvania because of you did there is no way you would think that Wolf is going to win reelection. He won last time because he was up against an extremely unpopular Republican who gutted the Education system. Please explain why you think Wolf won again.

Because PA govs historically almost always win re-election.    Corbett is probably the only exception to this.
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« Reply #22 on: August 27, 2017, 05:21:08 pm »
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Wagner is far too conservative for my generally centrist tastes..... So - rooting for Wolf
Wolf is consider the most liberal governor in the country.

Huh?

Wolf will win reelection with about the same margin than he got elected in 2014. The bench of strong GOPers is very thin. He may have been in trouble with President Clinton. As of now, lean to likely D.

I'm assuming that you don't live in Pennsylvania because of you did there is no way you would think that Wolf is going to win reelection. He won last time because he was up against an extremely unpopular Republican who gutted the Education system. Please explain why you think Wolf won again.

Because PA govs historically almost always win re-election.    Corbett is probably the only exception to this.

This is actually true of governors in general, regardless of state (and party). The only incumbents I really expect to lose at this point are Rauner and Raimondo (and I wouldn't be surprised if the latter doesn't run).
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« Reply #23 on: August 27, 2017, 05:28:50 pm »
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This is actually true of governors in general, regardless of state (and party). The only incumbents I really expect to lose at this point are Rauner and Raimondo (and I wouldn't be surprised if the latter doesn't run).

Huh, really? You think RI is a more likely GOP pick-up than AK or PA? Is Raimondo really that unpopular?
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« Reply #24 on: August 27, 2017, 09:07:42 pm »
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This is actually true of governors in general, regardless of state (and party). The only incumbents I really expect to lose at this point are Rauner and Raimondo (and I wouldn't be surprised if the latter doesn't run).

Huh, really? You think RI is a more likely GOP pick-up than AK or PA? Is Raimondo really that unpopular?

I'm also factoring in the possibility of a primary challenge, but yeah, most of what I've heard from people in RI makes me want to bet on her losing. It's a Tossup though.

I haven't really paid that much attention to PA or AK, admittedly.
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