France General Discussion III: Tout doit disparaître

[Umengus]

Ipsos confirms the fall...

09/07-08

Macron

Fav: 25 (-7)
Unfav: 69 (+9) (37 very defav)

FI: 12-88 (+2 fav compared to july)
PS: 23-76 (-9)
LArem: 84-14 (-6)
LR: 25-75 (-9)
RN: 10-85 (-2)

Philippe:

fav: 26 (-6)
unfav: 63 (+7)


Hulot: 53 fav (+12), 37 defav

[Zaybay]

Looking at Macron's approval and the situation, it doesnt seem that he will be able to win a second term. While I thought he would lose the right and face Marie LePen or a clone of her again, it seems that its the left deserting him, not the right. In this case, french Atlas-ers, which party will Macron likely face? A left party, or National Rally(apparently they changed their name)?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Could Hulot face him, I wonder?

[parochial boy]

Could Hulot face him, I wonder?

He claimed he was leaving politics for good.

Anyway, Méluche has been the most obvious opposition figure over the last year or two; but christ knows I wouldn't want to predict what will be the case in 4 years. Let's at least see how LREM hold up in the Europeans and the Municipals.

[NewYorkExpress]

IFOP poll about French-US relations, seen in the Figaro, full poll here: https://www.youscribe.com/BookReader/Index/2980304?documentId=3312816

A few results:


Is the following country a reliable ally/partner:
Germany:89% yes 11% no
UK: 61% yes 39%no
US: 44% yes 56% no
India: 41% yes 59% no
China: 32% yes 68% no
Russia: 22% yes 78% no


Do you approve of US policy in general: 20% yes 80% no


On the following topics, are the US an ally of France or an opponent:
to fight islamic terrorism: 74% ally 26% opponent
to face Russia: 51% ally 49% opponent
to face Chine: 51% ally 49% opponent
for safety of NATO members: 50% ally 50% opponent
for French economic growth: 22% ally 78% opponent
for European economic growth: 19% ally 81% opponent
to fight climate change: 12% ally 88% opponent


Do you have a good opinion of Donald Trump:
17% yes 83% no


Do you think most US citizens are like Donald Trump:
25% yes 75% no


Do you think it's important to keep a good relation between the US and Europe:
82% yes 18% no


Do you feel friendship for US people:
79% yes 21% no

I'm surprised more people didn't say that Americans were like Trump...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The neoliberal banker is at 19% approval. Ha!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-16/macron-fails-to-convince-four-fifths-of-french-poll-shows?srnd=premium

[Antonio the Sixth]

JUPITERIEN

[Zaybay]

Could Hulot face him, I wonder?

He claimed he was leaving politics for good.

Anyway, Méluche has been the most obvious opposition figure over the last year or two; but christ knows I wouldn't want to predict what will be the case in 4 years. Let's at least see how LREM hold up in the Europeans and the Municipals.

Interesting, I do see how he would appeal to France, especially after the terrible job Macron of the center is doing, and the right's rapid decrease in popularity. While he does seem rather good, and could help counter the right wing nationalist wave, I do worry about his threat to leave the EU if elected.

Then again, there is still, what, 4 years of Macron's term, so anything can change.

[EPG]

Back to reality for a second, the three most popular political forces in France are liberals who rejected social democracy, mildly Eurosceptic centre-right social conservatives, and very Eurosceptic far-right nationalists.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/benglaze/status/1041686381628743681

lol, basically

[Antonio the Sixth]

FBM is a haughty, smarmy, contemptuous little rich brat incapable of empathy, news at 11.

And re: the government falling apart, IF ONLY. Nah, he'll last 4 more years, potentially 9.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/marine-le-pen-ordered-submit-psychiatric-evaluation-over-islamic-state-n911361

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If Le Pen is forced to take the test, do you think she would pass?

[EPG]

https://twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/1042409562329042946

^^ interesting take...

Yes, there's far too much hyper-ventilation and obsession about polls, but more importantly a belief among the writer/Twitter class that criticising everything makes the critic better than the practitioner, and that nihilism is somehow clever, this place included. I would even say that too strong an interest in elections per se is kind of crass and misses the point of politics. There's a reason why the top politicians signal that they have no interest in opinion polls or what is called "wonkery". It's almost undignified relative to what democratic politics is really about, the control of the government by the people, and polls are interesting in so far as they signal successful ways to exert that control rather than as a cheering contest.

All democratic governments lose popularity or there'd be no point to elections; sitting around gloating about it doesn't allow the writer to take credit for a phenomenon that has been the case since 1945!

[windjammer]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1044243811671527425

^^ typical rightwing policies

Indeed. Rightwing parties always talk about reducing debt but in the end they always vote for tax cuts in order to satisfy their big donors.

[Tirnam]

Mélenchon's movement, France Insoumise, is under investigation for campaign funding abuses and allegations of fake jobs at the European Parliament.

Tuesday there were police searches in Mélenchon's home and in LFI HQ. It didn't go well.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/16/french-leftwinger-jean-luc-melenchon-reacts-angrily-to-police-raids
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYRdJNvOAdg

An investigation has been opened for violence and threats against police officers.

[Tirnam]

76% of French people disapprove Mélenchon's behavior during the police searches. (56% strongly disapprove, even among Mélenchon's voters in 2017: 51% disapprove)

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/JewishChron/status/1060253547479076864?s=19

Is Macron stupid or something. He knew that wouldn't go over well, and he announced it anyways. It would be like Germany honoring Paul Von Hindenberg for wartime service.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/JewishChron/status/1060253547479076864?s=19

Is Macron stupid or something. He knew that wouldn't go over well, and he announced it anyways. It would be like Germany honoring Paul Von Hindenberg for wartime service.

That's... not really analogous, actually, but point taken I suppose?

It really is. Hindenberg is the single person most responsible for Hitler becoming Chancellor in the first place. If he'd just said no to Hitler in 1933, we might have avoided World War Two...or at least the War being two fronts (I have no doubt the U.S and Japan would eventually have gone to war, and Pearl Harbor would've happened eventually).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://twitter.com/JewishChron/status/1060253547479076864?s=19

Is Macron stupid or something. He knew that wouldn't go over well, and he announced it anyways. It would be like Germany honoring Paul Von Hindenberg for wartime service.

That's... not really analogous, actually, but point taken I suppose?

It really is. Hindenberg is the single person most responsible for Hitler becoming Chancellor in the first place. If he'd just said no to Hitler in 1933, we might have avoided World War Two...or at least the War being two fronts (I have no doubt the U.S and Japan would eventually have gone to war, and Pearl Harbor would've happened eventually).

Given that Hindenburg's brain was rapidly devolving into mush, there wasn't really much he could do. Blame Von Schleicher.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/JewishChron/status/1060253547479076864?s=19

Is Macron stupid or something. He knew that wouldn't go over well, and he announced it anyways. It would be like Germany honoring Paul Von Hindenberg for wartime service.

That's... not really analogous, actually, but point taken I suppose?

It really is. Hindenberg is the single person most responsible for Hitler becoming Chancellor in the first place. If he'd just said no to Hitler in 1933, we might have avoided World War Two...or at least the War being two fronts (I have no doubt the U.S and Japan would eventually have gone to war, and Pearl Harbor would've happened eventually).

Given that Hindenburg's brain was rapidly devolving into mush, there wasn't really much he could do. Blame Von Schleicher.

Even people with dementia have astounding capabilities to say no if they so choose.

[mvd10]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1063940777104076800

mon dieu

We always knew the French aren't particularly high energy

[swl]

He has to start being careful. He is more and more seen as a president "who takes from the poor to give to the rich". Also having 2 massive protest movements in a few months is not very common, first the one of train workers and now the "gillets jaunes".

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1066322994207825921

They had a choice, Le Pen or Macron.

You reap what you sow

[Omega21]

The French government is now blaming the "Ultra-Right" and Le Pen for the protests.

https://news.sky.com/story/tear-gas-fired-at-furious-protesters-in-france-11561900

Boy, they sure seem desperate.

I would feel bad for the French, but then I remember they voted for him as an "outsider", and anyone who truly thinks he is anything but a part of the elite deserves to live under him for a few more years.

[Tirnam]

The French government is now blaming the "Ultra-Right" and Le Pen for the protests.

https://news.sky.com/story/tear-gas-fired-at-furious-protesters-in-france-11561900

Boy, they sure seem desperate.

I would feel bad for the French, but then I remember they voted for him as an "outsider", and anyone who truly thinks he is anything but a part of the elite deserves to live under him for a few more years.

Le Pen called to protest on the Champs-Elysées.
https://www.lepoint.fr/societe/gilets-jaunes-marine-le-pen-suggere-une-manifestation-sur-les-champs-elysees-23-11-2018-2273837_23.php
Marion Maréchal Le Pen demonstrated on the Champs Elysées with other RN officials
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/transports/gilets-jaunes/gilets-jaunes-marion-marechal-a-manifeste-sur-les-champs-elysees-samedi_3053555.html
And according to police a hundred members of the ultra right were among the most violent.
https://www.bfmtv.com/societe/violences-aux-champs-elysees-une-centaine-de-membres-de-l-ultra-droite-parmi-les-gilets-jaunes-1573477.html