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Author Topic: France General Discussion III: Tout doit disparaître  (Read 26083 times)
Former Senator Zaybay
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« Reply #275 on: December 04, 2018, 10:58:05 am »

This presidency has been a disaster so far, I seriously doubt he runs for reelection in 2022.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #276 on: December 04, 2018, 04:25:02 pm »

We will see what will happen Saturday but I fear that the situation may get out of control.
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« Reply #277 on: December 04, 2018, 04:35:26 pm »

This presidency has been a disaster so far, I seriously doubt he runs for reelection in 2022.

Seriously? He's got 4 more years. Literally all economists said that benefits from reforms wouldn't come within a few months. There is a decent chance his reforms work and unemployment is down significantly by 2022. Even if unemployment doesn't drop to 7% he might face relatively weak opponents again anyway. Le Pen is toxic and Mélenchon has his own issues. PS and LR still look f**ed. Macron probably isn't going to win 67% of the vote again, but writing him off now is rather bold.
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Archaeologist -> Historian -> Politician -> Economist -> Management Consultant -> Investment Banker -> Rich

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Former Senator Zaybay
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« Reply #278 on: December 04, 2018, 04:40:04 pm »

This presidency has been a disaster so far, I seriously doubt he runs for reelection in 2022.

Seriously? He's got 4 more years. Literally all economists said that benefits from reforms wouldn't come within a few months. There is a decent chance his reforms work and unemployment is down significantly by 2022. Even if unemployment doesn't drop to 7% he might face relatively weak opponents again anyway. Le Pen is toxic and Mélenchon has his own issues. PS and LR still look f**ed. Macron probably isn't going to win 67% of the vote again, but writing him off now is rather bold.

Im not writing him off, yet. Hes just clearly been a terrible president. You can argue about the economy improving or whatnot, but its clear that Macron himself is unpopular, seen as out of touch, and has almost every political ideology attacking him. Thats why I think he forgoes running again. If he were to run, he could win if the other parties squabble and bicker.
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« Reply #279 on: December 04, 2018, 09:41:18 pm »

This presidency has been a disaster so far, I seriously doubt he runs for reelection in 2022.

Seriously? He's got 4 more years. Literally all economists said that benefits from reforms wouldn't come within a few months. There is a decent chance his reforms work and unemployment is down significantly by 2022. Even if unemployment doesn't drop to 7% he might face relatively weak opponents again anyway. Le Pen is toxic and Mélenchon has his own issues. PS and LR still look f**ed. Macron probably isn't going to win 67% of the vote again, but writing him off now is rather bold.

Im not writing him off, yet. Hes just clearly been a terrible president. You can argue about the economy improving or whatnot, but its clear that Macron himself is unpopular, seen as out of touch, and has almost every political ideology attacking him. Thats why I think he forgoes running again. If he were to run, he could win if the other parties squabble and bicker.
Macron is easily the best president this century. Besides, look at who the reactionaries in the yellow vests are and what they're protesting--they won't win the hearts of the coalition that carried him to victory.
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« Reply #280 on: December 05, 2018, 04:55:02 am »

Remember when Maron was the future of Europe and a transformational leader? Good times

He's almost less popular than Hollande was at the end of his term.

And yet, he is right about everything and is actually getting stuff done...

Is he?  He’s not achieved any of his proposed EU reforms - the Digital Tax is basically dead and proposed French reforms of the Eurozone aren’t happening: he’s stood down on the fuel tax and much do the vaunted reforms that he proposed seem increasingly unlikely to pass.  A President on such low approvals doesn’t have the legitimacy internationally to force through EU reforms, and makes it much harder to pass domestic changes especially considering his movement is a new political movement so those in it are a lot less likely to have loyalty to it.

A big thing in Macrons campaign was that he felt like Hollandre or Sarkozy or other French presidents were too weak and folded as soon as people protested against them and, well, look at yesterday. 

Macron is easily the best president this century. Besides, look at who the reactionaries in the yellow vests are and what they're protesting--they won't win the hearts of the coalition that carried him to victory.

He’s got a 26% approval rating and won such an overwhelming victory because he was running against a Fascist: wouldn’t take much to force a First Round loss.  Also 72% of people in France support the Yellow Jacets for whatever reason.  If you ignore three quarters of the people in your country when you need 50% to win an election, then you are incredibly stupid.
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« Reply #281 on: December 05, 2018, 05:23:38 am »

I think Macron seems himself as the politician who will make the right changes even if they are not popular. Like Gerhard Schroder for example. Or Thatcher, isn't she considered the worst UK prime minister of 20th century, while at the same time praised for her economic results?
However the French may be more rebellious than Germans or British so it may end badly.

We will see what will happen Saturday but I fear that the situation may get out of control.
Yeah we will see, on the other hand it's possible that many peaceful protesters don't show up. Last week if you wanted to protest peaceful it was not even possible given than the riots started even before any protest .And I assume there will be even more police.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #282 on: December 05, 2018, 05:59:48 am »

This presidency has been a disaster so far, I seriously doubt he runs for reelection in 2022.

Seriously? He's got 4 more years. Literally all economists said that benefits from reforms wouldn't come within a few months. There is a decent chance his reforms work and unemployment is down significantly by 2022. Even if unemployment doesn't drop to 7% he might face relatively weak opponents again anyway. Le Pen is toxic and Mélenchon has his own issues. PS and LR still look f**ed. Macron probably isn't going to win 67% of the vote again, but writing him off now is rather bold.

Im not writing him off, yet. Hes just clearly been a terrible president. You can argue about the economy improving or whatnot, but its clear that Macron himself is unpopular, seen as out of touch, and has almost every political ideology attacking him. Thats why I think he forgoes running again. If he were to run, he could win if the other parties squabble and bicker.

The other parties squabbling and bickering IMO is the only way he gets reelected. Otherwise he's DOA. I actually think LREM will replace him with another candidate who hasn't destroyed their image and reputation.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #283 on: December 05, 2018, 05:37:10 pm »

The Elysée fears massive violences in Paris Saturday: the indications in the country are "extremely alarming", a hard core of thousands of people could come in Paris to "destroy and kill"

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/transports/gilets-jaunes/gilets-jaunes-l-elysee-redoute-un-mouvement-d-une-grande-violence-samedi-a-paris_3086245.html
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mvd10
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« Reply #284 on: December 05, 2018, 06:43:32 pm »

Right now he'd probably lose but again a reminder that the next election is in 3 years and 5 months. 3 years and 5 months ago Jeb! was leading the GOP primary polls, Clinton was squashing everyone in the general elections polls and everyone thought Trump would be Cain 2.0 or so. FFS, Macron himself only become a national politician 4 years ago. I really have to save some posts in case the economic situation improves, Macron doesn't have to do anything controversial in his last year and he faces (and beats) a weak opponent in 2022 despite not being that popular. I actually still think that is the most likely scenario as of now.
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« Reply #285 on: December 05, 2018, 10:38:36 pm »

Germany calls for France to give its UN Security Council seat to the EU

https://www.france24.com/en/20181128-paris-france-german-proposal-un-eu-macron-merkel-security-council-nations

^^hahahaha

Germany obviously deserves a spot on the Security Council, as well as India. The E. U. getting a seat would be... strange.
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« Reply #286 on: December 05, 2018, 11:50:13 pm »

Germany calls for France to give its UN Security Council seat to the EU

https://www.france24.com/en/20181128-paris-france-german-proposal-un-eu-macron-merkel-security-council-nations

^^hahahaha

Germany obviously deserves a spot on the Security Council, as well as India. The E. U. getting a seat would be... strange.

Personally, I'd argue Japan deserves one as well.
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« Reply #287 on: December 06, 2018, 08:54:52 am »

The rise of fuel tax, initially only postponed for 6 months, has now been completely cancelled.
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« Reply #288 on: December 06, 2018, 12:23:04 pm »

Well, that's effectively killed any movement toward a nationwide carbon tax here in the United States if there ever was one.  What Democratic trifecta wants to deal with a taxpayer revolt? 
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« Reply #289 on: December 07, 2018, 02:25:20 am »



France 2018.
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« Reply #290 on: December 07, 2018, 04:59:21 am »

whoa whoa whoa.....60% of the cost of fuel in France is tax.  On top of all the other taxes you pay, no wonder regular folk are pissed.  A gas tax doesn't really hurt rich folks living in cities too much, but the "sans dents" take it in the gut.  They take in the gut enough, eventually they'll come for the ones punching them.


The French need tax relief and loosened economic rules.

Well, that's effectively killed any movement toward a nationwide carbon tax here in the United States if there ever was one.  What Democratic trifecta wants to deal with a taxpayer revolt? 
see, there is some good news!
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"Peace for Israel means security, and we must stand with all our might to protect its right to exist, its territorial integrity. I see Israel as one of the great outposts of democracy in the world, and a marvelous example of what can be done, how desert land can be transformed into an oasis of brotherhood and democracy. Peace for Israel means security and that security must be a reality." MLK Jr
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« Reply #291 on: December 07, 2018, 06:27:32 am »


French need tax relief and loosened economic rules.

Well, that's effectively killed any movement toward a nationwide carbon tax here in the United States if there ever was one.  What Democratic trifecta wants to deal with a taxpayer revolt? 
see, there is some good news!

I suspect there has been some tax relief already, but it benefited the rich.

Anger is understandable when you raise taxes and cut social services, all of this accompanied by an arrogant governing style. Said this, reducing carbon emissions is urgent. The last reports are unequivocal, climate change advances more quickly than predicted and we are running out of time. Therefore it is indispensable to devote massive effort and resources, even at the cost of creating unrest by rising fuel taxes.

The problem, again, is that the anger of common people is fully justified when there's no solidarity in the effort. In other words: the rich must pay more taxes than the poor, by an amount proportional to the wealth they possess.
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« Reply #292 on: December 07, 2018, 06:38:16 am »

The problem, again, is that the anger of common people is fully justified when there's no solidarity in the effort. In other words: the rich must pay more taxes than the poor, by an amount proportional to the wealth they possess.
they don't?  Rich people in France don't pay the vast majority of income taxes?  Did they learn this from the Greeks?  Sure, regressive taxes like sin and gas taxes should be axed or at least greatly reduced, which is what the protesters are protesting about, no?
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"Peace for Israel means security, and we must stand with all our might to protect its right to exist, its territorial integrity. I see Israel as one of the great outposts of democracy in the world, and a marvelous example of what can be done, how desert land can be transformed into an oasis of brotherhood and democracy. Peace for Israel means security and that security must be a reality." MLK Jr
parochial boy
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« Reply #293 on: December 07, 2018, 07:07:50 am »

The problem, again, is that the anger of common people is fully justified when there's no solidarity in the effort. In other words: the rich must pay more taxes than the poor, by an amount proportional to the wealth they possess.
they don't?  Rich people in France don't pay the vast majority of income taxes?  Did they learn this from the Greeks?  Sure, regressive taxes like sin and gas taxes should be axed or at least greatly reduced, which is what the protesters are protesting about, no?
He "reformed" the wealth tax, which in practice meant a massive tax cut for the richest - that, the fact that Macron is considered as being the "president of the rich" is one of the underlying factors driving the protests.

But otherwise, yeah, the petrol tax in particular hurts lower income people who tend to live outside the major cities - and are more car reliant.

For me at least, ideologically speaking, climate change is a massive problem; but it is a problem that is mainly caused by the rich - so passing the cost of it on to the poor at the same time as giving tax cuts to rich people is outrageous.
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« Reply #294 on: December 07, 2018, 07:24:06 am »

The problem, again, is that the anger of common people is fully justified when there's no solidarity in the effort. In other words: the rich must pay more taxes than the poor, by an amount proportional to the wealth they possess.
they don't?  Rich people in France don't pay the vast majority of income taxes?  Did they learn this from the Greeks?  Sure, regressive taxes like sin and gas taxes should be axed or at least greatly reduced, which is what the protesters are protesting about, no?
He "reformed" the wealth tax, which in practice meant a massive tax cut for the richest - that, the fact that Macron is considered as being the "president of the rich" is one of the underlying factors driving the protests.

But otherwise, yeah, the petrol tax in particular hurts lower income people who tend to live outside the major cities - and are more car reliant.

For me at least, ideologically speaking, climate change is a massive problem; but it is a problem that is mainly caused by the rich - so passing the cost of it on to the poor at the same time as giving tax cuts to rich people is outrageous.
is wiki lying to me when it says people that make more than €72k pay 41% of it to the govt in income taxes?  That ain't even rich!
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"Peace for Israel means security, and we must stand with all our might to protect its right to exist, its territorial integrity. I see Israel as one of the great outposts of democracy in the world, and a marvelous example of what can be done, how desert land can be transformed into an oasis of brotherhood and democracy. Peace for Israel means security and that security must be a reality." MLK Jr
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« Reply #295 on: December 07, 2018, 07:44:19 am »

The problem, again, is that the anger of common people is fully justified when there's no solidarity in the effort. In other words: the rich must pay more taxes than the poor, by an amount proportional to the wealth they possess.
they don't?  Rich people in France don't pay the vast majority of income taxes?  Did they learn this from the Greeks?  Sure, regressive taxes like sin and gas taxes should be axed or at least greatly reduced, which is what the protesters are protesting about, no?
He "reformed" the wealth tax, which in practice meant a massive tax cut for the richest - that, the fact that Macron is considered as being the "president of the rich" is one of the underlying factors driving the protests.

But otherwise, yeah, the petrol tax in particular hurts lower income people who tend to live outside the major cities - and are more car reliant.

For me at least, ideologically speaking, climate change is a massive problem; but it is a problem that is mainly caused by the rich - so passing the cost of it on to the poor at the same time as giving tax cuts to rich people is outrageous.
is wiki lying to me when it says people that make more than €72k pay 41% of it to the govt in income taxes?  That ain't even rich!

That sounds more than it actually is.

I don't know the specifics for France, but in most of the EU for those taxes you get Child benefits (200 Euro per child/month in Austria), Free education for the children (University included), free healthcare and unemployment money if you are left without a job and tons of other stuff like that.

I won't go in depth since my knowledge of France is not good enough.

You pay more, but you also get more from the government, so it's not just money that disappears. Sending your children to University is fairly expensive in America if I understand correctly, so that's one of the things you pay for through taxes in the EU.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #296 on: December 07, 2018, 07:54:55 am »

The problem, again, is that the anger of common people is fully justified when there's no solidarity in the effort. In other words: the rich must pay more taxes than the poor, by an amount proportional to the wealth they possess.
they don't?  Rich people in France don't pay the vast majority of income taxes?  Did they learn this from the Greeks?  Sure, regressive taxes like sin and gas taxes should be axed or at least greatly reduced, which is what the protesters are protesting about, no?
He "reformed" the wealth tax, which in practice meant a massive tax cut for the richest - that, the fact that Macron is considered as being the "president of the rich" is one of the underlying factors driving the protests.

But otherwise, yeah, the petrol tax in particular hurts lower income people who tend to live outside the major cities - and are more car reliant.

For me at least, ideologically speaking, climate change is a massive problem; but it is a problem that is mainly caused by the rich - so passing the cost of it on to the poor at the same time as giving tax cuts to rich people is outrageous.
is wiki lying to me when it says people that make more than €72k pay 41% of it to the govt in income taxes?  That ain't even rich!

Well it's a marginal rate, so not really...

And the reforms were to the wealth tax, as in it used to tax things like shares or other financial products; whereas now it is really only a tax on real estate. So, as most people are more likely to have their wealth tied up in their homes, it was essentially punishing the middle at the expense of the rich, who are more likely to own shares and whatever.
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« Reply #297 on: December 07, 2018, 03:42:00 pm »

Who would have thought that a guy who publicly fancied himself the Roman God Jupiter would face issues stemming from his own arrogance?
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Omega21
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« Reply #298 on: December 07, 2018, 05:36:35 pm »

Who would have thought that a guy who publicly fancied himself the Roman God Jupiter would face issues stemming from his own arrogance?

Yeah, and they still picked him over Le Pen...

The French people have struck a massive blow to Nationalism across Europe, let's hope they redeem themselves in the upcoming EU elections.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #299 on: December 08, 2018, 05:34:07 am »

The situation in Paris is, for the moment, relatively calm, probably thanks to nearly 500 preventive arrests.

Let's hope it remains that way for the rest of the day.
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