France General Discussion III: Tout doit disparaître
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  France General Discussion III: Tout doit disparaître
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Author Topic: France General Discussion III: Tout doit disparaître  (Read 36817 times)
Beezer
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« Reply #50 on: July 13, 2017, 02:26:02 PM »

Does anyone have a breakdown (exit poll) of how the supporters of candidates eliminated in the first round voted in the second one? Came across this but not sure how accurate the pollster is: http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2017/05/07/resultats-de-lelection-presidentielle-2017-marine-le-pen-a-se_a_22074294/
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Tirnam
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« Reply #51 on: July 13, 2017, 03:19:25 PM »

Ipsos, election analysis

Fillon's voters: Macron 48%, Le Pen 20%, blank/void ballot 15%, abstain 17%
Mélenchon's voters: Macron 51%, Le Pen 7%, blank/void 17%, abstain 24%
Hamon's voters: Macron 71%, Le Pen 2%, blank/void 10%, abstain 17%
NDA's voters: Macron 27%, Le Pen 30%, blank/void 20%, abstain 23%
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #52 on: July 13, 2017, 03:48:15 PM »

I'm surprised with NDA's voters. I always thought he and Le Pen were pretty close ideologically.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #53 on: July 13, 2017, 05:02:28 PM »

What about a curcial part of the electorate: Cheminade's voters?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #54 on: July 13, 2017, 09:48:08 PM »

I'm surprised with NDA's voters. I always thought he and Le Pen were pretty close ideologically.

NDA party is pretty much FN for people not liking/hating Le Pen family, willing to work with the mainstream right-wing parties or finding FN too extreme/unfathomable for them.

Some of those people would never vote FN, under any circumstrances.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #55 on: July 14, 2017, 12:05:17 AM »

What about a curcial part of the electorate: Cheminade's voters?

I'd honestly love to know.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #56 on: July 14, 2017, 10:17:37 PM »

Ipsos, election analysis

Fillon's voters: Macron 48%, Le Pen 20%, blank/void ballot 15%, abstain 17%
Mélenchon's voters: Macron 51%, Le Pen 7%, blank/void 17%, abstain 24%
Hamon's voters: Macron 71%, Le Pen 2%, blank/void 10%, abstain 17%
NDA's voters: Macron 27%, Le Pen 30%, blank/void 20%, abstain 23%

Interesting... I somewhat expected more Mélenchon/Le Pen voters.
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windjammer
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« Reply #57 on: July 23, 2017, 07:43:59 AM »

Macron Job Approval (IFOP)
Approve: 54% (-10)
Disapprove: 43% (+8)

That is quite brutal to be honest. He was going to see his approval rating go down but not so quickly, that is likely the results of his recent controversies
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Zinneke
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« Reply #58 on: July 23, 2017, 12:07:56 PM »
« Edited: July 23, 2017, 12:09:52 PM by Rogier »

Macron Job Approval (IFOP)
Approve: 54% (-10)
Disapprove: 43% (+8)

That is quite brutal to be honest. He was going to see his approval rating go down but not so quickly, that is likely the results of his recent controversies

How does the military cuts and the resignation of the Head of Armed Forces make such an impact? I always thought being Minister of FA and Minister of Defense was actually quite an easy portfolio to handle judging by Fabius and Le Drian's approval ratings as people didn't seem to care, but now it seems to have undone Macron's early momentum.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #59 on: July 23, 2017, 02:26:47 PM »

Macron Job Approval (IFOP)
Approve: 54% (-10)
Disapprove: 43% (+8)

That is quite brutal to be honest. He was going to see his approval rating go down but not so quickly, that is likely the results of his recent controversies

How does the military cuts and the resignation of the Head of Armed Forces make such an impact? I always thought being Minister of FA and Minister of Defense was actually quite an easy portfolio to handle judging by Fabius and Le Drian's approval ratings as people didn't seem to care, but now it seems to have undone Macron's early momentum.

Probably a big impact, the resignation of the Head of Armed Forces was described by the media as a unprecedented crisis between the Army and the President since the beginning of the Vth Republic.
And it's probably not just the military cuts but the budget in its whole. First the government seemed to prepare a delay for the tax cuts, finally they decided to start the tax cuts as soon as next year in exchange of budget cuts. That leave a bad impression of improvisation.

For approval ratings, historic perspective by Ifop
Sarkozy 2007: 66%
Hollande 2012, De Gaulle 1965: 56%
Macron 2017: 54%
Chirac 2002: 53%
Mitterrand 1988: 49%
Mitterrand 1981, VGE 1974, Pompidou 1969: 47%
Chirac 1995: 39%
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Tirnam
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« Reply #60 on: October 22, 2017, 12:59:46 AM »

Presidential election poll, 6 months after (Ifop)

Macron: 28% (+4)
Le Pen: 21.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 18% (-1.5)
Fillon: 15% (-5)
Hamon: 7% (+0.5)
Dupont-Aignan: 5% (=)

A little surprised by Le Pen, I was expecting a significant drop in her support since she is in a very bad shape since the presidential debate.
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mvd10
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« Reply #61 on: October 22, 2017, 03:46:36 AM »

Why is Fillon a candidate lol? Is he seriously considering running again or is this more of a poll see how people would vote knowing what they know now (like the Obama vs Romney polls after the Obamacare implementation fiasco)? And I guess Fillon's drop is explained by Macron eating up centre-right voters? Or did new scandals emerge?
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windjammer
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« Reply #62 on: October 22, 2017, 09:46:13 AM »

Presidential election poll, 6 months after (Ifop)

Macron: 28% (+4)
Le Pen: 21.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 18% (-1.5)
Fillon: 15% (-5)
Hamon: 7% (+0.5)
Dupont-Aignan: 5% (=)

A little surprised by Le Pen, I was expecting a significant drop in her support since she is in a very bad shape since the presidential debate.
I'm not *surprised* regarding Le Pen. She had a solid base of support in 2012, so it is just starting to erode. I still expect her to lose much more in elections with lower turnout.
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Santander
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« Reply #63 on: October 24, 2017, 02:07:38 PM »

https://www.ft.com/content/3d907582-b893-11e7-9bfb-4a9c83ffa852

Supply-sider Macron slashes taxes.

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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #64 on: November 14, 2017, 03:58:23 PM »

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41966245

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #65 on: November 15, 2017, 05:44:27 PM »

...wow, that is f**ked up. I genuinely had no idea. Hope they change it soon.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #66 on: December 03, 2017, 04:22:51 PM »

There was a territorial election in Corsica today, the alliance of autonomists and separatists has a massive lead in the first round, they won more than 45% of the vote, another separatist list won less than 7% of the vote. They will probably gain a majority of the vote in the second round next week (and a huge majority in the next Corsican assembly).

The autonomists and separatists want to gain autonomy in the next few years but reject the idea of independence (at least for this decade).

The results: (all the lists winning more than 7% of the vote can be in the second round)
Nationalist alliance: 45.36%
Right-wing regionalist: 14.97%
LR: 12.77%
LREM: 11.26%
Separatists: 6.69%
Communists/Unsubmissive Corsica: 5.68%
FN: 3.28%

Turnout was low, 52.17%

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Zinneke
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« Reply #67 on: December 03, 2017, 04:35:46 PM »

Hamon has changed the name of his movement again or is it another breakaway?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #68 on: December 03, 2017, 05:05:53 PM »

Hamon has changed the name of his movement again or is it another breakaway?


M1717 was a temporary name until an official congress happened.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #69 on: December 03, 2017, 05:50:28 PM »

There was a territorial election in Corsica today, the alliance of autonomists and separatists has a massive lead in the first round, they won more than 45% of the vote, another separatist list won less than 7% of the vote. They will probably gain a majority of the vote in the second round next week (and a huge majority in the next Corsican assembly).

The autonomists and separatists want to gain autonomy in the next few years but reject the idea of independence (at least for this decade).

The results: (all the lists winning more than 7% of the vote can be in the second round)
Nationalist alliance: 45.36%
Right-wing regionalist: 14.97%
LR: 12.77%
LREM: 11.26%
Separatists: 6.69%
Communists/Unsubmissive Corsica: 5.68%
FN: 3.28%

Turnout was low, 52.17%

The PS didn't even bother to run a list??
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MaxQue
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« Reply #70 on: December 03, 2017, 10:38:53 PM »

There was a territorial election in Corsica today, the alliance of autonomists and separatists has a massive lead in the first round, they won more than 45% of the vote, another separatist list won less than 7% of the vote. They will probably gain a majority of the vote in the second round next week (and a huge majority in the next Corsican assembly).

The autonomists and separatists want to gain autonomy in the next few years but reject the idea of independence (at least for this decade).

The results: (all the lists winning more than 7% of the vote can be in the second round)
Nationalist alliance: 45.36%
Right-wing regionalist: 14.97%
LR: 12.77%
LREM: 11.26%
Separatists: 6.69%
Communists/Unsubmissive Corsica: 5.68%
FN: 3.28%

Turnout was low, 52.17%

The PS didn't even bother to run a list??

The Corsican PS was already barely alive before the regionalist rise and En Marche creation.
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #71 on: December 04, 2017, 01:15:58 AM »

Macron was a con, a mistake to elect.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #72 on: December 04, 2017, 01:55:40 AM »

muh great liberal hero
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #73 on: December 04, 2017, 02:34:15 AM »

Either him or the Nazi, so yeah he's alright.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #74 on: December 04, 2017, 04:03:58 AM »

I think the most satisfied electorate Macron will have are Left-accelerationists.
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