France General Discussion III: Tout doit disparaître

[Lechasseur]

May I be the first to say, lol?

Who could potentially beat Macron anyway? Have there been any rumours on potential candidates? It's probably too early for that though (4 more years and this isn't America where everyone starts plotting to run for president and recruiting staff while they're a toddler ffs). Then again, some candidates announced their bids for the 2017 election very early.

His main problem would be the different political forces decide for the run off to vote for "anyone but Macron". That is how he could lose.

Who would that be anyway? I'm still inclined to think that the left would vote for Macron over any LR candidate while the right would vote for Macron over any PS candidate. And that's assuming LR or PS makes the run-off while it's very possible Macron faces Mélenchon or Le Pen. I don't think Macron will bomb like Hollande.

My best guess is Wauquiez if he reaches the run off:

-he would get all the RN easily as they're ideologically close
-And I think he could get enough abstention/blank ballot from the left.


I mean, LR+RN+DlF often poll at 35-45% after all.

Agreed

[Lechasseur]

May I be the first to say, lol?

Who could potentially beat Macron anyway? Have there been any rumours on potential candidates? It's probably too early for that though (4 more years and this isn't America where everyone starts plotting to run for president and recruiting staff while they're a toddler ffs). Then again, some candidates announced their bids for the 2017 election very early.

His main problem would be the different political forces decide for the run off to vote for "anyone but Macron". That is how he could lose.

Who would that be anyway? I'm still inclined to think that the left would vote for Macron over any LR candidate while the right would vote for Macron over any PS candidate. And that's assuming LR or PS makes the run-off while it's very possible Macron faces Mélenchon or Le Pen. I don't think Macron will bomb like Hollande.

My best guess is Wauquiez if he reaches the run off:

-he would get all the RN easily as they're ideologically close
-And I think he could get enough abstention/blank ballot from the left.


I mean, LR+RN+DlF often poll at 35-45% after all.

I know the left doesn't like Macron, but surely the prospect of a Wauquiez presidency would terrify them? Besides, Wauquiez doesn't look popular at all. A lot can change during 4 years but as of this moment he has crashed even below Fillon's polling numbers.

That is true

[Lechasseur]

This presidency has been a disaster so far, I seriously doubt he runs for reelection in 2022.

Seriously? He's got 4 more years. Literally all economists said that benefits from reforms wouldn't come within a few months. There is a decent chance his reforms work and unemployment is down significantly by 2022. Even if unemployment doesn't drop to 7% he might face relatively weak opponents again anyway. Le Pen is toxic and Mélenchon has his own issues. PS and LR still look f**ed. Macron probably isn't going to win 67% of the vote again, but writing him off now is rather bold.

Im not writing him off, yet. Hes just clearly been a terrible president. You can argue about the economy improving or whatnot, but its clear that Macron himself is unpopular, seen as out of touch, and has almost every political ideology attacking him. Thats why I think he forgoes running again. If he were to run, he could win if the other parties squabble and bicker.

The other parties squabbling and bickering IMO is the only way he gets reelected. Otherwise he's DOA. I actually think LREM will replace him with another candidate who hasn't destroyed their image and reputation.

[Lechasseur]

Ifop poll, presidential election 2022

Macron: 27.5%
Le Pen: 27.5%
Mélenchon: 13%
Wauquiez: 10%
Hamon: 8.5%
Dupont-Aignan: 7%

Did they poll the Macron-Le Pen run-off?

61-39 to Macron

Le Pen is still persona non grata to a solid majority of the French - if Macron is going to lose in 2022 it won't be to her

That is what puzzles me about all this talk about Macron being finished. It still seems that Le Pen would be his most likely opponent in 2022, which should secure his reelection.

That's the only reason Macron still has a chance. I think if he were going to be against just about anyone else in the second round, he'd be toast.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-royals/count-of-paris-pretender-to-french-throne-dies-aged-85-idUSKCN1PF1WT

[Lechasseur]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-royals/count-of-paris-pretender-to-french-throne-dies-aged-85-idUSKCN1PF1WT

This goofball is now the head of the House of Orleans

Why do you think he's a goofball?

[Lechasseur]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-royals/count-of-paris-pretender-to-french-throne-dies-aged-85-idUSKCN1PF1WT

And by the way, the July Monarchy was probably the best monarchic regime France ever had

Absolutely

[Lechasseur]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-royals/count-of-paris-pretender-to-french-throne-dies-aged-85-idUSKCN1PF1WT

Weren’t they the ones you support?

Yeah lol

[Lechasseur]

So, if France's monarchy were to be reinstated, which of the three houses would be the likeliest choice (even if all of them are unlikely), Bourbon, Orleans or Bonaparte?

If there were a double referendum, first to restore the monarchy and then to choose the royal house, who would win?

Probably 90% of the French are unaware of the 3 royal/imperial houses. But yes, Bonaparte is the most prestigious name, they should win.

Good question, at any rate among monarchists, the Orléans are by far the most popular house.

It would be interesting to see how a referendum would play out, I suspect it would depend on the campaigns and who got the support of various politicians. Had there been a referendum say 60 years ago, it would have been the House of Orléans or nobody, but today it's less obvious. I still suspect the Orléans would be favorites just because they'd be the most likely to get the backing of the political right, while the left is by principle totally against monarchy (I suspect if the left had to back somebody, it would be the Bonapartes), and I think the legitimists wouldn't stand the slightest chance.

[Lechasseur]

So, if France's monarchy were to be reinstated, which of the three houses would be the likeliest choice (even if all of them are unlikely), Bourbon, Orleans or Bonaparte?

If there were a double referendum, first to restore the monarchy and then to choose the royal house, who would win?

I have to imagine the House of Bonaparte has the most popular support, even if that support is maybe 0.2%.

The Bonapartes may be the most popular dynasty historically overall, but nobody has wanted their restoration since the 1870s. Their fate was sealed in 1871. And then most legitimists switched over to supporting the House of Orléans after the Count of Chambord's death in 1883 (too late to get the monarchy restored in France, as it was the Count of Chambord having a Northamesque moment in 1873 that prevented a restoration then), so obviously the vast majority of French people are against a restoration, but I think on average they'd poll at about 5% (I need to find the sources where I saw that to confirm). The number seems logical, in the 1993 referendum on the monarchy in Brazil the monarchists got 6 or 7%, so it would make sense that in other countries that abolished their monarchies it would be about the same. I think out of those 5% or so, you probably would have at least 60% that would back the Orléans.

[Lechasseur]

There are strong rumors that Macron could decide to hold a referendum on May, 26th.

Effectivement, je viens de le voir/Yeah, I just saw that

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/02/03/01002-20190203ARTFIG00176-referendum-l-option-de-macron-pour-sortir-de-la-crise.php

[Lechasseur]

OK I found a couple of polls:

This poll from 2007 (BVA being the pollster, and the poll was made for France-Soir) states that 3% of French people are very favorable to a restoration of the monarchy, and another 14% rather favorable, to make a total of 17%:

http://www.bva.fr/data/sondage/sondage_fiche/531/fichier_lesfranaaisetlamonarchie_b69f5.pdf

Then here's a 2016 poll also cunducted by BVA, this time for Alliance Royale though:

http://www.bva.fr/data/sondage/sondage_fiche/1897/fichier_bva_pour_lalliance_royale_-_les_francais_et_la_monarchiefe87e.pdf

Yet again, 17% of the population would be favourable to having a king, including 27% of LR supporters and 37% of FN voters. So yeah, it's not as fringe as you'd think. (although that being said, a restoration will never happen). At anyrate, there are more monarchists than I thought.

[Lechasseur]

  Got all excited about a national referendum to be held in France, only to find out it might be about, wait for it, drum roll please... reducing the size of the National Assembly.

Yeah tbh I think that's stupid. Honestly I think it's demogoguery to tell the nation that reducing the number of MPs will actually change something. It won't, if anything it will make politicians even more out of touch as their constituencies will be even larger; and it's not the type of thing that's going to save billions of euros either, so I don't see the point.

The idea of proportional representation on the other hand seems very interesting, if the number of MPs was reduced in order to put in place PR that could be something worth thinking about.

[Lechasseur]

  Got all excited about a national referendum to be held in France, only to find out it might be about, wait for it, drum roll please... reducing the size of the National Assembly.

Yeah tbh I think that's stupid. Honestly I think it's demogoguery to tell the nation that reducing the number of MPs will actually change something. It won't, if anything it will make politicians even more out of touch as their constituencies will be even larger; and it's not the type of thing that's going to save billions of euros either, so I don't see the point.

The idea of proportional representation on the other hand seems very interesting, if the number of MPs was reduced in order to put in place PR that could be something worth thinking about.

Agreed. I think it's a funny tactic though - the gilets jaunes were demanding the introduction of the RIC, so hold a referendum about a tedious subject, then when turnout is predictably pathetic, Macron can turn around and use it as "proof" that there is no demand to have widespread referendums

Exactly

[Lechasseur]

Not official yet but probably
-reducing the size of the National Assembly and the Senate
-proportionnal representation
-recognition of the blank vote

How would "recognition of the blank vote" work in PR?  Only way would be leaving a certain section of seats blank which... really would not be a very good idea.  I'm sceptical about reducing the size of parliaments on principle (feeds the old "politicians are bad" narrative but tends to lead to worse governance) but I don't know about France in particular and PR is probably a good idea - certainly in the short term the only hope that the wider Left has of having any real representation!

We don’t know if there will be a referendum and the questions. The recognition of blank vote is for all elections, including the presidential election. I don’t necessarily think that this could be in the referendum, I guess it would be a constitutional referendum which is more complex to organize than a legislative referendum.
For me, if those question were asked I would probably vote no to all.

Recognizing the blank vote would mean that a lot of elections would be voided so I don't think that would be workable. I don't like the idea of reducing the number of deputies for the reasons you mentioned, on the other hand PR would be a good idea (at least in theory, not sure about in practice) (I think without it, we'll probably be dealing with 1 party rule for a while, given how both the conservative right and the left are fractured, and I don't see them making a comeback anytime soon under the current system).

[Lechasseur]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-royals/count-of-paris-pretender-to-french-throne-dies-aged-85-idUSKCN1PF1WT

This goofball is now the head of the House of Orleans

Why do you think he's a goofball?

I was kidding, I know hardly anything about the guy

Ah ok lol