France General Discussion III: Tout doit disparaître

[windjammer]

Macron Job Approval (IFOP)
Approve: 54% (-10)
Disapprove: 43% (+8)

That is quite brutal to be honest. He was going to see his approval rating go down but not so quickly, that is likely the results of his recent controversies

[windjammer]

Presidential election poll, 6 months after (Ifop)

Macron: 28% (+4)
Le Pen: 21.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 18% (-1.5)
Fillon: 15% (-5)
Hamon: 7% (+0.5)
Dupont-Aignan: 5% (=)

A little surprised by Le Pen, I was expecting a significant drop in her support since she is in a very bad shape since the presidential debate.

I'm not *surprised* regarding Le Pen. She had a solid base of support in 2012, so it is just starting to erode. I still expect her to lose much more in elections with lower turnout.

[windjammer]

May I be the first to say, lol?

Who could potentially beat Macron anyway? Have there been any rumours on potential candidates? It's probably too early for that though (4 more years and this isn't America where everyone starts plotting to run for president and recruiting staff while they're a toddler ffs). Then again, some candidates announced their bids for the 2017 election very early.

His main problem would be the different political forces decide for the run off to vote for "anyone but Macron". That is how he could lose.

[windjammer]

May I be the first to say, lol?

Who could potentially beat Macron anyway? Have there been any rumours on potential candidates? It's probably too early for that though (4 more years and this isn't America where everyone starts plotting to run for president and recruiting staff while they're a toddler ffs). Then again, some candidates announced their bids for the 2017 election very early.

His main problem would be the different political forces decide for the run off to vote for "anyone but Macron". That is how he could lose.

Who would that be anyway? I'm still inclined to think that the left would vote for Macron over any LR candidate while the right would vote for Macron over any PS candidate. And that's assuming LR or PS makes the run-off while it's very possible Macron faces Mélenchon or Le Pen. I don't think Macron will bomb like Hollande.

My best guess is Wauquiez if he reaches the run off:

-he would get all the RN easily as they're ideologically close
-And I think he could get enough abstention/blank ballot from the left.


I mean, LR+RN+DlF often poll at 35-45% after all.

[windjammer]

May I be the first to say, lol?

Who could potentially beat Macron anyway? Have there been any rumours on potential candidates? It's probably too early for that though (4 more years and this isn't America where everyone starts plotting to run for president and recruiting staff while they're a toddler ffs). Then again, some candidates announced their bids for the 2017 election very early.

His main problem would be the different political forces decide for the run off to vote for "anyone but Macron". That is how he could lose.

Who would that be anyway? I'm still inclined to think that the left would vote for Macron over any LR candidate while the right would vote for Macron over any PS candidate. And that's assuming LR or PS makes the run-off while it's very possible Macron faces Mélenchon or Le Pen. I don't think Macron will bomb like Hollande.

My best guess is Wauquiez if he reaches the run off:

-he would get all the RN easily as they're ideologically close
-And I think he could get enough abstention/blank ballot from the left.


I mean, LR+RN+DlF often poll at 35-45% after all.

I know the left doesn't like Macron, but surely the prospect of a Wauquiez presidency would terrify them? Besides, Wauquiez doesn't look popular at all. A lot can change during 4 years but as of this moment he has crashed even below Fillon's polling numbers.

Well, Wauquiez is terribly unpopular but his party reaches out the third place for the european not far away from the RN.

He's ideologically angling the "anti globalization" program. He would obviously not get many votes from the left but getting enough abstentions is definitely a possibility.


Wauquiez is a tough campaigner. He has overperformed his national party many times on the elections he ran. I have been thinking for example about his easy reelection victory in 2012 for his legislative seat while Hollande carried it, his election to the presidency of Rhone-Alpes-Auvergne while the fondamentals weren't particularly favoring his 5 point victory etc etc.


So honestly he's being weakaned right now, but he shouldn't be underestimated.

[windjammer]

Yes he's in a lot of troubles right now. Let's see if it will remain a major issue. I honestly don't think so.

[windjammer]

So Hulot has resigned out of disappointment with Macron's (lack of) engagement on environmental issues; and the flawless one's approval rating has continued to drop down to 34%

Very good, carry on

More and more French are realizing he's a fraud.

[windjammer]

^^
He's less popular than Trump ......

Approval ratings:
Trump 45%
Macron 32%
Merkel 22%
May 22%



At least he has higher approval rating than Theresa May and Merkel

I mean, he alienates the left, he alienates the right so...

[windjammer]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1044243811671527425

^^ typical rightwing policies

Indeed. Rightwing parties always talk about reducing debt but in the end they always vote for tax cuts in order to satisfy their big donors.

[windjammer]

Remember when Maron was the future of Europe and a transformational leader? Good times

He has managed to unite everyone against him. Best show of french unity for quite a long time!

[windjammer]

Personally if I have to choose between the 3, I would choose the legitimist claimant.

[windjammer]

Ifop poll, 2022 presidential election

Macron: 30%
Le Pen: 27%
Mélenchon: 12%
Wauquiez: 8%
Hamon: 6%
Dupont-Aignan: 6%

Second round: Macron 56%, Le Pen 44%

Yes I think that's the likely scenario*right now*