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  1968 election
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Gustaf
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« on: August 11, 2005, 02:22:45 pm »
« edited: August 11, 2005, 02:35:47 pm by Gustaf »

I just wanted to do the experiment of first joining the Wallace vote with Humphrey (sort of New Deal coalition) and then Nixon with Wallace (Reagan coalition).

Humphrey+Wallace v Nixon:




Nixon+Wallace v Humphrey:



It's interesting to see how few states were solidly Democratic or Republican, most relied on the Dixiecrat vote. We can see how weak Northern Democrats were at that time, without the support of the Dixiecrat wing and also how crucial that support was to Republican success. Still, I think the 1964 election shows pretty clearly how badly a Dixiecrat (which was what Goldwater really was, as a candidate) would do on his own, so to speak.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2005, 02:37:55 pm »

Nixon gets 79 EVs in the first map Humphrey 78 in the second. (no, I'm not kidding...all those blue states are as strong electorally as those hardly visible red states...)
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Virginian87
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« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2005, 02:54:44 pm »

What would a Humphrey presidency be like?
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RJ
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« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2005, 06:11:11 pm »

Nixon gets 79 EVs in the first map Humphrey 78 in the second. (no, I'm not kidding...all those blue states are as strong electorally as those hardly visible red states...)

Wow...never stopped to count them.

If that election had gone to the house, Humphrey wins, right?
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Ebowed
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« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2005, 06:50:05 pm »

Yes, Humphrey would have likely won in the House.  The Democrats had a majority until 1979 I think.

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dazzleman
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« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2005, 08:01:51 pm »

Yes, Humphrey would have likely won in the House.  The Democrats had a majority until 1979 I think.

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Actually, the Democrats had a majority in the House until 1995.
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A18
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« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2005, 08:13:51 pm »

Yes, Humphrey would have likely won in the House.  The Democrats had a majority until 1979 I think.

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Actually, the Democrats had a majority in the House until 1995.

I think he's talking about state delegations.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #7 on: August 13, 2005, 06:29:19 am »

Yes, Humphrey would have likely won in the House.  The Democrats had a majority until 1979 I think.

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Actually, the Democrats had a majority in the House until 1995.

I think he's talking about state delegations.

Maybe you're right.  I forgot that when the election goes to the House, each state delegation gets one vote, so the result could be different than the overall majority.
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