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| | | |-+  VA-Quinnipiac: Northam +8
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Author Topic: VA-Quinnipiac: Northam +8  (Read 1275 times)
heatcharger 🌹‏
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« on: June 21, 2017, 11:52:48 am »
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Link.

Northam 47% (+3)
Gillespie 39% (+6)
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bronz4141
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« Reply #1 on: June 21, 2017, 11:54:49 am »
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Lean D/Tossup level.

I wonder if Gillespie can appeal in the rural Virginia areas?
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« Reply #2 on: June 21, 2017, 11:57:51 am »
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I think Gillespie will keep NoVa relatively competitive.

His problem will be getting Stewart voters to turn out for him.

It might be a catch-22; lose many of either group (NoVa or Stewart supporters) if he embraces the other too much.
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« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2017, 12:02:20 pm »
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Most undecideds are Independents and a large chunk are between 18-34. Northman should go on the attack right now tying Gillespie to Trump.
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« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2017, 12:06:35 pm »
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I think Northam wins by 2-4 points election day. If I had to call it now, Northam +2.8 or so.

Gillespie needs the Stewart voters to get out to vote for him in record numbers while not alienating "moderate swing voters" in NoVA. Not an easy balancing act.
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« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2017, 12:14:47 pm »
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I think Northam wins by 2-4 points election day. If I had to call it now, Northam +2.8 or so.

Gillespie needs the Stewart voters to get out to vote for him in record numbers while not alienating "moderate swing voters" in NoVA. Not an easy balancing act.

All in an environment where Trump is unpopular as the incumbent Democratic Governor is.
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« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2017, 12:17:08 pm »
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If McAuliffe struggled against The C*()ch despite similar projections, I see no reason why things'll be different this time.
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« Reply #7 on: June 21, 2017, 12:23:24 pm »
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Plus 8 is not a toss-up. Republicans think that they are in for a landslide everywhere, but that's not accurate.
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« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2017, 12:25:22 pm »
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Plus 8 is not a toss-up. Republicans think that they are in for a landslide everywhere, but that's not accurate.

Oh boy, do you remember the polling for the 2014 senate race? Gillespie was always far behind.

I don't think Gillespie is doomed, but realistically speaking, this race Leans D.
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« Reply #9 on: June 21, 2017, 12:26:34 pm »
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Did Quinn change their methodology? Because I remember they used to be one of the more R-leaning pollsters. After Trump's election they've been giving Democrats their best polling results, especially in the generic ballot.
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« Reply #10 on: June 21, 2017, 12:28:30 pm »
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Plus 8 is not a toss-up. Republicans think that they are in for a landslide everywhere, but that's not accurate.

Oh boy, do you remember the polling for the 2014 senate race? Gillespie was always far behind.

I don't think Gillespie is doomed, but realistically speaking, this race Leans D.

Because this year will be absolutely like 2014, Gillespie will win in a landslide. Got it.
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« Reply #11 on: June 21, 2017, 12:29:05 pm »
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Oh boy, do you remember the polling for the 2014 senate race? Gillespie was always far behind.

I don't think Gillespie is doomed, but realistically speaking, this race Leans D.

Would it be fair to put those past races on the same level as a elections where Democrats were the ones lacking enthusiasm? This time it is the other way around.
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« Reply #12 on: June 21, 2017, 12:31:27 pm »
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Plus 8 is not a toss-up. Republicans think that they are in for a landslide everywhere, but that's not accurate.

Oh boy, do you remember the polling for the 2014 senate race? Gillespie was always far behind.

I don't think Gillespie is doomed, but realistically speaking, this race Leans D.

Because this year will be absolutely like 2014, Gillespie will win in a landslide. Got it.

Not really, all I'm saying is that we shouldn't dismiss the possibility of a GOP win in Virginia. Also, I don't think republicans believe they're in for landslides everywhere. They've barely survived the special elections, and the prospects of winning this governorship don't look good at all.
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« Reply #13 on: June 21, 2017, 12:42:46 pm »
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Plus 8 is not a toss-up. Republicans think that they are in for a landslide everywhere, but that's not accurate.

Oh boy, do you remember the polling for the 2014 senate race? Gillespie was always far behind.

I don't think Gillespie is doomed, but realistically speaking, this race Leans D.

Different political environment.

VA Democrats were caught off guard in 2014. If turnout in the primary is anything to go by then they are pretty fired up for this one.
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« Reply #14 on: June 23, 2017, 01:54:00 am »
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I think Northam wins by 2-4 points election day. If I had to call it now, Northam +2.8 or so.

Gillespie needs the Stewart voters to get out to vote for him in record numbers while not alienating "moderate swing voters" in NoVA. Not an easy balancing act.

All in an environment where Trump is unpopular as the incumbent Democratic Governor is.

McAuliffe is much more popular than Trump:  Gov. Terry McAuliffe currently has a 47 to 37 percent job approval rating.
http://www.nbc12.com/story/35716863/quinnipiac-releases-first-va-governors-race-poll

Probably not a surprise that McCauliffe's approval ratings virtually mirror the poll in the governor's race.
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« Reply #15 on: June 23, 2017, 06:53:21 am »
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Looks like Perriello may have been the better GE candidate but it is too early to say !
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« Reply #16 on: July 09, 2017, 04:51:32 pm »
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McAuliffe's approval ratings makes it hard to think the GOP will win here.  McAuliffe's NOT a real likable guy at a certain level; he's an insider and a member of the political class that is quite despised, yet he's above water as a liberal Democrat in a Southern state.  That's something to consider.
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« Reply #17 on: July 10, 2017, 04:40:53 pm »
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Ed Gillespie is a fighter, people shouldn't be counting him out. This race is still very much competitive.
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« Reply #18 on: July 12, 2017, 02:20:55 pm »
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Gillespie could win, but he's certainly the underdog, at this point. He probably needs McAuliffe's approval ratings to dip even more.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #19 on: July 14, 2017, 10:00:33 pm »

New Poll: Virginia Governor by Quinnipiac University on 2017-06-20

Summary: D: 47%, R: 39%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
« Last Edit: July 14, 2017, 10:08:17 pm by Dave Leip »Logged
heatcharger 🌹‏
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« Reply #20 on: July 14, 2017, 10:01:43 pm »
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New Poll: Virginia Governor by Quinnipiac University on 2017-06-15

Summary: D: 47%, R: 39%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Hi,

Can we get 2017 Gubernatorial Predictions since the nominees have been determined for both races?

Thanks,
heatcharger
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #21 on: July 14, 2017, 10:04:21 pm »

Hi - this is in process.  Should be available on Sat.
Enjoy,
Dave
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« Reply #22 on: July 15, 2017, 12:01:02 am »
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I think Northam wins by 2-4 points election day. If I had to call it now, Northam +2.8 or so.

Gillespie needs the Stewart voters to get out to vote for him in record numbers while not alienating "moderate swing voters" in NoVA. Not an easy balancing act.

All in an environment where Trump is unpopular as the incumbent Democratic Governor is.
Why is McAuliffe unpopular?
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« Reply #23 on: July 15, 2017, 07:13:32 am »
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I think that will be the final margin or something around, between 6 and 10 points. I don't see Gillespie doing better than Trump considering Trump's abysmal approvals
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« Reply #24 on: July 15, 2017, 08:55:16 am »
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I think Northam wins by 2-4 points election day. If I had to call it now, Northam +2.8 or so.

Gillespie needs the Stewart voters to get out to vote for him in record numbers while not alienating "moderate swing voters" in NoVA. Not an easy balancing act.

All in an environment where Trump is unpopular as the incumbent Democratic Governor is.
Why is McAuliffe unpopular?

*is popular
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