How Each State's "Richest" County Voted
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Author Topic: How Each State's "Richest" County Voted  (Read 7716 times)
RINO Tom
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« on: June 21, 2017, 12:47:06 PM »
« edited: June 21, 2017, 03:45:22 PM by RINO Tom »

I thought this would be interesting to compile.  No "point" to this post, just some interesting results.  I can do poorest county next, but it's harder to isolate those counties using the Statistical Atlas site (http://statisticalatlas.com/United-States/Overview).  Anyway, here is each state's county with the highest median income and how it voted in 2016:

COUNTY                  GOP         DEM        MED. INC.
Shelby, AL              73.40%   23.10%   $  68,770
Maricopa, AZ           49.10%   45.70%   $  53,596
Saline, AR                68.83%   25.44%   $  55,348
Santa Clara, CA       20.58%   72.71%   $  91,702
Douglas, CO            54.80%   36.70%   $101,591
Fairfield, CT             37.90%   58.20%   $  82,283
New Castle, DE         32.70%   62.30%   $  64,537
St. Johns, FL           65.00%   31.60%   $  64,876
Forsyth, GA             71.70%   24.10%   $  86,569
Honolulu, HI            31.70%   61.60%   $  72,764
Blaine, ID                31.10%   59.80%   $  64,042
Kendall, IL               47.50%   46.00%   $  81,765
Hamilton, IN            56.80%   37.20%   $  82,468
Dallas, IA                 50.56%   41.05%   $  73,847
Johnson, KS             47.90%   45.20%   $  74,717
Oldham, KY              62.30%   31.30%   $  83,391
Ascension, LA           66.10%   30.10%   $  69,070
Cumberland, ME       33.70%   60.10%   $  57,461
Howard, MD              29.28%   63.26%   $109,865
Nantucket, MA          29.50%   64.70%   $  85,478
Livingston, MI           62.04%   32.48%   $  72,359
Scott, MN                  53.70%   38.30%   $  86,112
Madison, MS              56.80%   40.80%   $  59,904
St. Charles, MO          60.50%   34.10%   $  71,077
Jefferson, MT              62.64%   29.96%   $  60,863
Sarpy, NE                   56.02%   34.79%   $  69,965
Lander, NV                 75.80%   16.70%   $  72,742
Rockingham, NH         50.50%   44.70%   $  77,348
Hunterdon, NJ            54.60%   40.80%   $106,143
Los Alamos, NM          31.10%   50.80%   $106,686
Nassau, NY                 45.90%   51.30%   $  97,690
Wake, NC                   37.90%   58.40%   $  66,006
Williams, ND               78.62%   13.55%   $  76,210
Delaware, OH              55.46%   39.44%   $  89,757
Canadian, OK              72.34%   21.12%   $  63,629
Clackamas, OR             43.40%   49.50%   $  64,532
Chester, PA                  43.30%   52.60%   $  86,050
Washington, RI            42.14%   52.16%   $  72,138
Beaufort, SC                54.90%   40.60%   $  57,316
Lincoln, SD                  61.43%   32.01%   $  74,751
Williamson, TN             65.10%   29.60%   $  89,779
Rockwall, TX                 71.80%   24.40%   $  86,119
Summit, UT                 35.55%   50.91%   $  83,336
Chittenden, VT             23.70%   70.50%   $  63,989
Loudoun, VA                38.60%   55.40%   $122,238
King, WA                      21.80%   72.32%   $  71,811
Jefferson, WV               54.80%   39.40%   $  65,304
Waukesha, WI              61.60%   33.50%   $  75,850
Campbell, WY               88.00%     7.40%   $  79,488

And, of course, the map:



Skipped Alaska, LOL.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #1 on: June 21, 2017, 01:53:31 PM »

So rich voters kind of function as a proxy of their state's ideology to an extent? Of course, that's not a perfect statement. Illinois's richest voted GOP by 47-46% and Idaho and Utah are really baffling by being heavily Democratic.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
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« Reply #2 on: June 21, 2017, 04:46:58 PM »

So rich voters kind of function as a proxy of their state's ideology to an extent? Of course, that's not a perfect statement. Illinois's richest voted GOP by 47-46% and Idaho and Utah are really baffling by being heavily Democratic.
I think it's the difference between the richest county between democratic urban cores or republican suburbs.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2017, 05:18:26 PM »

Thanks for posting this RINO!

It is interesting to see the list broken out this way, and with a nice map to boot as well, and it would certainly be interesting to see  '08/'12/'16 swing maps as well.

One item that is often deceptive however when solely looking at county level results is that we can frequently lose the granularity associated with more details compared to looking at city/municipal level results.

It would be interesting to try to obtain data from the richest communities within the wealthiest counties within a State as well, and match against 2012 numbers, to see what the data shows....

Here's a thread from a few months back that you made some posts on, about swings within some of the wealthiest places around the country how they voted and swings, where we have that data on a few states, but still quite a bit more work to be done.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.0
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2017, 05:22:44 PM »

So rich voters kind of function as a proxy of their state's ideology to an extent? Of course, that's not a perfect statement. Illinois's richest voted GOP by 47-46% and Idaho and Utah are really baffling by being heavily Democratic.

There is some truth to that, if you compare the wealthiest places in California for example against some of the wealthiest Metro cities within Texas and Tennessee for example.

Utah & Idaho stand out obviously mainly because of the whole ski resort retirement gig in those respective counties....

I suspect if we look at wealthiest communities and not just counties, we would probably see NJ flip, and possibly some surprises in the Midwest as well....
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2017, 10:26:15 PM »

So here is a map thus far of how the wealthiest communities within the wealthiest counties voted by state....

California- Santa Clara County- Monte Sereno- MHI $239k, Pop 3,4k

2016:  (65 D- 29 R)       (+26% Dem Swing from '12)

Colorado- Douglas County-- Castle Pines Village- MHI $206k/Yr, Pop 4.0k

2016: (30 D- 62 R)       (+23% Dem Swing from '12)

Connecticut- Fairfield County- Darien--- MHI $206k, Pop 21k

2016: (53 D- 41 R)       (+43% Dem Swing from '12)

Oregon- Clackamas County- Happy Valley-  MHI $93k- Pop 14.9k

2016: (49 D- 41 R)       (+15% Dem Swing from '12)

Washington- King County- Clyde Hill- MHI 207k--- Pop 3.1k

2016: (56 D- 33 R)       (+30% Dem Swing from '12)

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2017, 11:10:06 PM »

Updated to include election results from the wealthiest town/place within the wealthiest County within the States....

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2017, 12:04:30 AM »

So previous post neglected to identify wealthiest communities in the wealthiest counties---

Idaho: Blaine County---- Hailey-- MHI $75.2k- Pop 8.0k

2016: (62 D- 29 R)     (+4% R swing from '12)--- See notes on other thread about estimations involved

Montana: Jefferson County--- Montana City--- MHI $100.2k--- Pop 2.9k

2016: (35 D- 58 R)     (+9% Dem Swing from '12).

Adding a few new states....

Ohio: Delaware County--- Powell--- MHI $132.6k--- Pop 11.7k

2016: (43 D- 51 R)    (+19% Dem Swing)

Tennessee: Williamson County- Brentwood--- MHI $134.4k--- Pop 38.2k

2016: (32 D- 60 R)    (+22% Dem Swing)

I wish I was able to do a statewide margin/swing map, but unfortunately don't have permissions...

So here are how the wealthiest places in the wealthiest counties voted in 2016...

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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2017, 02:27:31 PM »

Nassau's richer than Westchester? That's a surprise.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2017, 06:30:28 PM »

Nassau's richer than Westchester? That's a surprise.

I'll let the rest of y'all discuss the Nassau/Westchester, since I haven't been out to the Metro NYC area in over Ten years, but you do raise a good point in terms of how we measure and assess household income.

Generally Median Household Income (MHI) is the most common means of comparing data, since #1 it is easily and publicly accessible and #2 because it basically splits the population of an area 50-50 above and below that level, so in theory can eliminate distortions caused by a small number of extremely high-income households, or exceptionally large number of extremely low income households.

Obviously this creates it's own set of problems when trying to look at relative wealth...

For example, I have found numerous locations where there are a large number of retired individuals, with little income that are in real estate markets where there homes are valued in the $500k- $1 Million Dollar range.

So when trying to do comparative level data, if I'm using MHI as an indicator of wealth, it is essentially favoring upper-income wage earning families over wealthy retirees, who have frequently invested their assets into their home or other real estate holdings, and essentially live primarily off of their Social Security and financial investments.... So wealthy by all relative standards, but not necessarily with tons of money that is easily accessible.

One of the other issues is that MHI looked at solely at a County Level for electoral analysis, can frequently misrepresent what is going on within the County itself, and obviously when trying to look at something as obscure as how did "wealthy" voters vote, doesn't add the granularity since you might have some extremely wealthy communities within a given county that voted this way or that, swung this way or that, but ultimately the data gets swallowed up with a bunch of other "noise".

Of course, this is without even trying to go through the exercise of trying to compare/contrast MHI between counties throughout the United States, where a certain household income might make you relatively wealthy in one place, and simply Upper Middle Class in another....

I still prefer Median Household Income to Mean Household Income, and unfortunately we don't have any easy means to assess property wealth outside of income, as a comparative tool to address the gaps...

So is Nassau or Westchester richer/wealthier once people run the numbers? IDK, but it will be interesting to look at the numbers by MHI for the respective wealthier places in both counties regardless...


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NOVA Green
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« Reply #10 on: June 25, 2017, 10:33:38 PM »

Updated to include the wealthiest community within the wealthiest County in Wyoming... although interestingly enough the wealthiest place in Wyoming actually voted heavily Dem in '16

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2017, 07:28:00 PM »
« Edited: June 27, 2017, 04:11:55 PM by NOVA Green »

So, neglected to mention in my Wyoming Update---

Wealthiest place in the wealthiest county....

Sleepy Hollow- (Campbell Co. Wyoming)- MHI $102.4k- Pop 1.1k

2016: (6 D- 86 R)

NEW UPDATES:

Nebraska--- (Sarpy County)--- Gretna- MHI $73.7k- Pop 5.1k

2016: (29 D- 62 R)

Kansas--- (Johnson County)--- Mission Hills-  MHI $226.3k- Pop 3.5k

2016: (47 D- 46 R)

So the current map of how the wealthiest places within the wealthiest counties looks like this.... Idaho & Kansas basically cancelled out Colorado in the overall EV map of the wealthiest places in the wealthiest counties.... To be continued....






Also, hate to cross-post but am working two very similar threads in parallel....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.0
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #12 on: June 27, 2017, 01:23:22 PM »

I like what NOVA Green is doing my splitting the wealthiest communities off from the rest of the county.  Keeping it at the county-level does result in a loss of detail that would be found in a finer analysis, and it also results in some pretty weird results (for example, the richest county in Mississippi having a higher MHI than the wealthiest county in Arizona, even though Arizona is the wealthier state overall)

Though, I do have to ask NOVA Green, why limit the analysis to the wealthiest place within the wealthiest county?  Why not just take the wealthiest community overall?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #13 on: June 27, 2017, 05:00:46 PM »

I like what NOVA Green is doing my splitting the wealthiest communities off from the rest of the county.  Keeping it at the county-level does result in a loss of detail that would be found in a finer analysis, and it also results in some pretty weird results (for example, the richest county in Mississippi having a higher MHI than the wealthiest county in Arizona, even though Arizona is the wealthier state overall)

Though, I do have to ask NOVA Green, why limit the analysis to the wealthiest place within the wealthiest county?  Why not just take the wealthiest community overall?

Thanks Del Tachi!

I appreciate your kind words regarding my attempt to try to crunch down and break the numbers into further detail.

To your question, there are several reasons....

1.) I was trying to keep the data that I've been pulling within the OPs original sphere, since RINO TOM had already gone through the work to pull a detailed list by county, and didn't want to stray too far off course/ Off-Thread.

2.) The second reason is that the main source of data that I've been pulling from (Link below), based directly off of US Census data doesn't include a comprehensive list of MHI by Place within a given state, since the topline state filters by MHI by Place within State excludes many communities, without drilling into County level filters.

So, this would essentially mean going through individually county by county to look at the "Household Income by Place" which is obviously even more labor intensive for states with a larger number of counties, than even obtaining precinct level election data and running precinct maps vs Census Tracts for example. Generally when trying to mine through individual state election data it's a bit easier to look one county or a few counties rather than at all counties.

That being said, I guess one could simply roll the top listed "place" by MHI by State, making it a much easier exercise, even if we're losing some communities in the mix.

Hmmm....Maybe I'll try that and see what data has already been published on the other thread by various contributors to see if anyone has already run '16 numbers that match. Smiley

Link to a great resource for anyone who wants a "one source shopping" for demographic data as part of any projects y'all are working on or who want to start matching demographic data against whatever recent electoral data you have at your disposal.

http://statisticalatlas.com/United-States/Overview

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #14 on: June 27, 2017, 05:43:29 PM »

Ok--- don't feel like running the numbers on the richest place based upon Statistical Atlas using a State filter, scrolling down to Household income and selecting by place. (Not at this time).

I mean for California it pulled up Fremont MHI $101.5k/yr at the top of the list.

Not sure how familiar some of you are with the Bay Area or California in general, but Fremont is certainly not a place that would jump to the top of my mind when it comes to the highest level of household income in NorCal, let alone Metro LA or San Diego.

Anyone whose spent time in South Bay, like I did some five years back knows that Fremont certainly doesn't come anywhere close, (Although there were some interesting swings there between '12 and '16).


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NOVA Green
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« Reply #15 on: June 27, 2017, 07:17:01 PM »

So started to take a look at Utah and headed over to Summit County....

Wealthiest Places:

1.) Silver Summit-  MHI $130.3k--- Pop 3.5k---- CDP Uninc Area

http://statisticalatlas.com/place/Utah/Silver-Summit/Household-Income#data-map/tract

Now to match with precincts.... using the County Arc GiS

http://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=62c644c0e92b478eaaf0d92600a23ac6

Ok---- have to eyeball Census tracts with Precinct map.  Looks like Precinct #35 (Highland Estates East) appears to have a major overlap (Also wealthiest Census tract within CDP?)

Precinct #33 (Lower Silvercreek) appears to overlap significantly, as well as precinct #32 (Upper Silvercreek), and likely much of Precinct #12 (Bitner). There maybe a few other precincts with minor population centers included within the County, but likely the majority are within other census tracts within the county....

Now we need to run over to the election results by precinct

http://www.co.summit.ut.us/DocumentCenter/View/4202

So if we take the precincts that appear to overlap for the most part with the Census tract (#12, #32, #33, & #35), and would be delighted to hear other opinions about how to crunch this data better it looks something like the following in 2012 & 2016....

Silver Summit:

2012: (55 D- 41 R)      +13 D
2016: (61 D- 28 R)       +33 D    (+20% Dem Swing)

At this point after an hour of performing this exercise, I don't have the stamina to deal with Summit County, Utah further and the next two wealthiest places within the County.... maybe someone else wants to take up the torch on this one, while I focus my attention elsewhere?


2.) Summit Park-   MHI $115.3k--  Pop 7.8k

3.) Snyderville---   MHI $99.7k---   Pop 6.0k

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #16 on: June 27, 2017, 09:39:11 PM »
« Edited: July 15, 2017, 06:54:02 PM by NOVA Green »

Add in the wealthiest place in the wealthiest County in Arizona----

Paradise Valley--- (Maricopa County)--- MHI $125.9k/yr---- Pop 13.1k

2012: (28 D- 71 R)    +43 R
2016: (39 D- 56 R)    +17 R    (+26% Dem Swing)


Updated Map.


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NOVA Green
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« Reply #17 on: July 03, 2017, 06:49:33 PM »

Iowa---- Dallas County (Des Moines Suburb)

Note there was some weirdness with absentees not county here on official results for '16, but the numbers I have available don't appear to indicate that these results were impacted...

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2017/02/08/dallas-county-failed-report-5842-votes-cast-2016-election/97665238/

Wealthiest Places:

1.) Clive- Pop 15.9k-   MHI $91.0k/Yr

2016: (42 D- 50* R)    +8 R
2012: (34 D- 65 R)     +31 R    (+23% Dem Swing)

2.) Urbandale- Pop 40.3k-  MHI $82.0k    (Split City---- majority in Polk County)

The wealthiest precincts are in Dallas County MHI ~$120k/Yr

2016: (40 D- 53 R)      +13 R
2012: (34 D- 65 R)      +31 R    (+18% Dem Swing).


So which one do I go with for the "wealthiest place within the wealthiest County"?

Well, technically it doesn't matter for purpose of Atlas map shading since Trump captured 50.2% in Clive and 52.8% in Urbandale (Dallas County Precincts)....

Still I was there were 5% increments in shading on the prediction map, since 10% increments really don't tell a complete story (Hence my desire for an Atlas "off-the-shelf" swing map solution), but still, based upon precedent here's the update to include Iowa.

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #18 on: July 10, 2017, 08:11:27 PM »
« Edited: July 10, 2017, 08:24:20 PM by NOVA Green »

Ok--- so after taking a break from this thread for a week, since precinct level data can be frustrating to access, and overlapping precinct maps (When available) with Census data even more frustrating, decided to jump back and pull a few more numbers....

RINOs list of wealthiest counties by MHI by wealthiest place within the County

Texas--- Rockwall County--- MHI $ 86.1k/Yr--- ('16: 24 D- 71 R)--- ('12: 23 D- 76 R)  +6% D Swing

Wealthiest place(s) in Rockwall....

Heath:                               MHI $133.8k/Yr--- Pop 7.4k
McLendon- Chisholm           MHI $109.0k/Yr--  Pop 2.3k

Ethnically, overwhelmingly non-Latino White (Heath 93%, McLendon 78%)

Unfortunately the precincts are not split out neatly, so had to combine these two communities to get the best possible approximation.....  (Precincts 2-C and 3-C)

2016: (78 R- 17 D)---  2012: (89 R- 11 D)    +17% D Swing

Dems actually gained 6% of their voting % between '12 and '16, regardless of where the 5% that went 3rd Party came from ideologically.

New map looks as follows.....





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NOVA Green
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« Reply #19 on: July 11, 2017, 02:17:46 AM »

So wealthiest County in Arkansas....

Saline County- MHI $55.3k/Yr- Pop 109.8k   ('16: 25 D- 69 R)--- ('12 ( 27 D- 70 R) +1% R Swing

Wealthiest Place....

Bryant, Arkansas---- MHI $ 61.9k--- Pop 17.9k

Numbers are a bit sketch and most likely some precinct boundaries shifted.... but in '16 this includes Precincts #4, 6, 13 & 14.

2016: (29 D- 64 R).... if we take the exact same precincts from '12 we lose 1.7k/8.9k voters, which really doesn't make sense in a relatively wealthy suburban place in a suburban county of Little Rock...

We know the ''16 numbers are legit, and maybe one of our Atlas friends from Arkansas can talk about the precinct shifts in Saline County between '12 and '16, so I can run some decent swing numbers?Huh
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #20 on: July 11, 2017, 06:12:05 AM »

So here is a map thus far of how the wealthiest communities within the wealthiest counties voted by state....

California- Santa Clara County- Monte Sereno- MHI $239k, Pop 3,4k

2016:  (65 D- 29 R)       (+26% Dem Swing from '12)

I thought Atherton was the richest municipality in California? According to the 2015 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Atherton has a MHI of over $250,000, or are you getting numbers from a different/more up-to-date source? Just curious.

For Atherton, the numbers were
2012: Romney 51.54% - Obama 46.64% (R+ 4.90)
2016: Clinton 66.65% - Trump 26.05% (D+ 40.60)
Swing: D+ 45.50

Keep up the good work though, this is an awesome thread! Smiley
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #21 on: July 11, 2017, 08:07:32 AM »

1) Have you done a 2012 map??

2) I just want to point out that it's only after the 2016 election that liberals and Democrats have pointed out that Romney won all of these wealthy places in 2012 so as to show how crazily these voters shifted toward their preferred candidate (Clinton).  For those who were around, the revisionism will not stick: in 2012, the narrative of why Obama won was ABSOLUTELY large, cosmopolitan areas (including the richest suburban counties) outvoting rural areas, even though Romney won the richest towns in the richest counties (which, yes, went Democratic ... the richest voters in the richest counties are still a minority).
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #22 on: July 11, 2017, 06:44:51 PM »
« Edited: July 11, 2017, 07:00:15 PM by NOVA Green »

So here is a map thus far of how the wealthiest communities within the wealthiest counties voted by state....

California- Santa Clara County- Monte Sereno- MHI $239k, Pop 3,4k

2016:  (65 D- 29 R)       (+26% Dem Swing from '12)

I thought Atherton was the richest municipality in California? According to the 2015 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Atherton has a MHI of over $250,000, or are you getting numbers from a different/more up-to-date source? Just curious.

For Atherton, the numbers were
2012: Romney 51.54% - Obama 46.64% (R+ 4.90)
2016: Clinton 66.65% - Trump 26.05% (D+ 40.60)
Swing: D+ 45.50

Keep up the good work though, this is an awesome thread! Smiley

Basically with this thread was just following RINO's focus on the "Richest Counties by State" with a sub-focus on the wealthiest community within that County based upon precinct results accessible....

Since Atherton is in San Mateo County, it doesn't make the cut based on RINOs Statistical Atlas list for wealthiest County by State.... I am using the StatisticalAtlas.com county level filter by state as the data source for where the wealthiest community within that county is.

Now I should note that when I started pulling numbers on Poverty, I found the following source to have more update Median Household Income (MHI) data by County, so for example it appears that Washington County Oregon is actually now wealthier than Clackamas, so regarding you point on data sources, these numbers can, will, and do fluctuate from year to year, etc...

https://www.census.gov/did/www/saipe/data/statecounty/data/2015.html

There is another similar thread which includes details about other wealthier communities within a given State, so kind of working two different sides here... Sad

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5528560#msg5528560

Some of the swings are pretty crazy, although perhaps Atherton has one of the highest swings observed thus far of wealthy communities!!!

Any other numbers you have for Cali (Or elsewhere) that haven't been listed on that thread that you want to add, since obviously in a State as large as California, there are a ton of communities that even adjusting for the high cost of living in parts of the State, are still pretty dang wealthy in terms of household income.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5528560#msg5528560
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #23 on: July 11, 2017, 10:32:24 PM »
« Edited: July 11, 2017, 10:46:32 PM by NOVA Green »

Ok--- time to take a brief summary of where we are at in terms of how the wealthiest community voted within the wealthiest county for each individual State....

We are using the statisticalatlas.com numbers to define wealthiest county and wealthiest community, recognizing although it might not provide the very most recent Census Data, it is still an easily accessible source based upon relatively recent comprehensive data sets.

Now where it gets a bit tricky is that some of the wealthiest places within many of these counties are unincorporated areas, and tricky to translate precinct level data (when available) into quantifiable results, because of item such as split precincts that don't easily overlap with the Census Tract Data, or we are lacking Census Maps for some of these areas, and also sometimes the split-county overlaps between these communities.

So, here is my current list of the wealthiest places by wealthiest county by State, using the best data available, combined with numbers that others have contributed on other threads....

Arizona: Maricopa Co.--- Paradise Valley-  MHI $125.9k/Yr- Pop 13.1k
US Pres: 2016: (39 D- 56 R)---  2012: (28 D- 71 R)    +26% D Swing ('12>'16)

Arkansas: Saline Co---  Bryant---  MHI $61.9k--- Pop 17.9k
US Pres: 2016: (29 D- 64 R)---  2012: (29 D- 69 R)  +5% D Swing ('12>'16)
*** Numbers appear sketch from '12 bcs of large decrease in votes>'16. Precinct Boundary shifts?

California: Santa Clara Co-- Monte Sereno-- MHI $239k--- Pop 3.4k
US Pres: 2016: (65 D- 29 R)--- 2012: (54 D- 44 R)       +26% D Swing ('12>'16)
*** There are two wealthier communities in the county, but precinct results unobtainable

Colorado: Douglas Co--- Castle Pines Village-- MHI $206.3k- Pop 4.0k
US Pres: 2016: (30 D- 62 R)--- 2012: (22 D- 77 R)      +23% D Swing ('12>'16)

Connecticut: Fairfield Co-- Darien---  MHI $205.7k--- Pop 20.9k
US Pres: 2016: (53 D- 41 R)--- 2012: (34 D- 65 R)  +43% D Swing

Idaho: Blaine Co-- Hailey--- MHI $75.2k-- Pop 8.0k
US Pres: 2016: (62 D- 29 R)--- 2012: (67 D- 30 R)   +4% R Swing
*** The '16 precinct returns for Blaine Co split absentees out, so the '12 numbers are estimated

Iowa: Dallas Co--- Clive--- MHI $91.0k--- Pop 15.9k
US Pres: 2016: (42 D- 50* R)--- 2012: (34 D- 65 R)   +23% D Swing
*** Technically the precincts of Urbandale within the Co have a higher MHI but results are close

Kansas: Johnson Co- Mission Hills- MHI $226.3k--- Pop 3.5k
US Pres: 2016: (47 D- 46 R)--- 2012: (31 D- 68 R)   +38% D Swing

Montana: Jefferson Co- Montana City- MHI $100.2k--- Pop 2.9k
US Pres: 2016: (35 D- 58 R)--- 2012: (33 D- 65 R) +9% D Swing

Nebraska: Sarpy Co--- Gretna--- MHI $73.7k--- Pop 5.1k
US Pres: 2016: (29 D- 62 R)--- 2012: (32 D- 66 R) +1% D Swing

Ohio: Delaware Co--- Powell---- MHI $132.6k--- Pop 11.7k
US Pres: 2016: (43 D- 51 R)--- 2012: (36 D- 63 R)   +19% D Swing

Oregon: Clackamas Co- Happy Valley-- MHI $ 92.8k- Pop 14.9k
US Pres: 2016: (49 D- 41 R)---  2012: (46 D- 53 R)  +15% D Swing
*** This isn't the wealthiest place in the County. Gvt Camp can't be broken down and the other two are Uninc/Split Precincts....

Tennessee- Williamson Co--- Brentwood-- MHI $134.4k-- Pop 38.2k
US Pres: 2016: (32 D- 60 R)--  2012: (25 D- 75 R)   +22% D Swing

Texas: Rockwall Co--- Heath/McLenton--- MHI $ ~$120k--- Pop ~9.7k
US Pres: 2016: (17 D- 78 R)--- 2012: (11 D- 89 R)---    +17% D Swing

Utah: Summit Co- Silver Summit--- MHI $130.3k--- Pop 3.5k
US Pres: 2016: (61 D- 28 R)--- 2012: (55 D- 41 R)--- +19% D Swing


Washington: King Co--- Clyde Hill---  MHI $ 207.1k/Yr-- Pop 3.1k
US Pres: 2016: (56 D- 33 R)--- 2012: (46 D- 53 R)   +30% D Swing

Wyoming: Campbell Co--- Sleepy Hollow--- MHI $ 102.4k--- Pop 1.1k
US Pres: 2016: (6 D- 86 R)--- 2012: (13 D- 86 R)       +7% R Swing







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NOVA Green
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« Reply #24 on: July 11, 2017, 11:29:05 PM »

1) Have you done a 2012 map??

2) I just want to point out that it's only after the 2016 election that liberals and Democrats have pointed out that Romney won all of these wealthy places in 2012 so as to show how crazily these voters shifted toward their preferred candidate (Clinton).  For those who were around, the revisionism will not stick: in 2012, the narrative of why Obama won was ABSOLUTELY large, cosmopolitan areas (including the richest suburban counties) outvoting rural areas, even though Romney won the richest towns in the richest counties (which, yes, went Democratic ... the richest voters in the richest counties are still a minority).

1.) Hmmm... took me an hour or so to consolidate data from various sources, but the 2012 Map of wealthiest communities within the wealthiest counties should look something like this... (Check the post above for some of the notes associated, etc...




2.) You make an excellent point, which I have seen you make elsewhere, regarding the Obama '08> Romney '12 > Clinton '16 voters in these types of communities.

Unfortunately, the data is much harder to quantify at a community/city level, because of the simple fact the '08 Precinct Level Data is much harder to obtain for many of these States.

It would be pretty fascinating to be able to pull the data from these same communities from '08, to see to what extent many of these voters fit into the category of Obama/Romney/Clinton voters.... I suspect that in certain communities we would observe similar overlaps, but much less so in others.

Obviously the challenge is that many of these communities have a relatively high level of population growth, making it a bit harder to compare "apples to apples"....

I absolutely agree with your frustrations regarding the "Atlas Revisionism" of the context of the '12 election, and the massive overreaction of many about how the "Future of the Democratic Party" should rest solely on the hands of Upper-Income Voters in the 'burbs of Metro areas within any given State.

As I'm sure you are well aware, I have never subscribed to that "pipe dream" that upper-income suburban voters are the key to the future of the Democratic Party, unlike some of the newer and younger Democratic Avatars that showed up during the '16 election cycle, trying to shoehorn a concept to fit their individual narrative....

One of my current projects is trying to look at how the Poorest Counties voted by State, which was actually directly inspired by this very thread.... Smiley
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