MD-Gov: Don't be Jealous!

[Shadows]

Jealous will do better with African Americans than Bernie but the thing is it is a multi-cornered race with many serious contenders in. So the winner will likely get 30-35% of the vote probably. If Jealous gets the Bernie voters to turn up & vote, he will win this. Ofcourse he could always expand the base.

It will be interesting to see what kind of campaign he runs !

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jealous will do better with African Americans than Bernie but the thing is it is a multi-cornered race with many serious contenders in. So the winner will likely get 30-35% of the vote probably. If Jealous gets the Bernie voters to turn up & vote, he will win this. Ofcourse he could always expand the base.

It will be interesting to see what kind of campaign he runs !

It's not even clear that Jealous will beat Baker among African-American voters, tbh.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Jealous will do better with African Americans than Bernie but the thing is it is a multi-cornered race with many serious contenders in. So the winner will likely get 30-35% of the vote probably. If Jealous gets the Bernie voters to turn up & vote, he will win this. Ofcourse he could always expand the base.

It will be interesting to see what kind of campaign he runs !

It's not even clear that Jealous will beat Baker among African-American voters, tbh.

PG County is heavily black, and was a very Pro-Clinton county in the primary. Jealous will have to cut into Baker's base here to have any chance. And even then, it could allow another candidate to squeak by.

[Kamala]

Donna Edwards could be a good LtG candidate. Or a good gubernatorial candidate, anyway.

[TheLeftwardTide]

Donna Edwards could be a good LtG candidate. Or a good gubernatorial candidate, anyway.

If Cardin retires in 2018, I think she'll run for his Senate seat. I would probably support her, as I did in 2016. Pretty sure she's not going to run for governor, though.

[choclatechip45]

Donna Edwards could be a good LtG candidate. Or a good gubernatorial candidate, anyway.

If Cardin retires in 2018, I think she'll run for his Senate seat. I would probably support her, as I did in 2016. Pretty sure she's not going to run for governor, though.

You think she will run even with her recent MS diagnosis?

[TheLeftwardTide]

Donna Edwards could be a good LtG candidate. Or a good gubernatorial candidate, anyway.

If Cardin retires in 2018, I think she'll run for his Senate seat. I would probably support her, as I did in 2016. Pretty sure she's not going to run for governor, though.

You think she will run even with her recent MS diagnosis?

I was not aware of this until now. Well, that sucks, as she was an excellent congresswoman, and I wish that she could go further with her political career. If she wasn't diagnosed with MS, then what I said still holds up.

[choclatechip45]

Donna Edwards could be a good LtG candidate. Or a good gubernatorial candidate, anyway.

If Cardin retires in 2018, I think she'll run for his Senate seat. I would probably support her, as I did in 2016. Pretty sure she's not going to run for governor, though.

You think she will run even with her recent MS diagnosis?

I was not aware of this until now. Well, that sucks, as she was an excellent congresswoman, and I wish that she could go further with her political career. If she wasn't diagnosed with MS, then what I said still holds up.

Yeah I agree. She has been making a lot of cable news appearances. She might run, but I wouldnt blame her if she doesn't.

[Gass3268]

Hogan was to cut higher education and juvenile justice in the upcoming budget.

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[MAINEiac4434]

He's a Republican. He governs like a Republican. Can we please stop pretending that he's some sort of moderate hero?

[PragmaticPopulist]

Hogan was to cut higher education and juvenile justice in the upcoming budget.

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I can see D campaign ads hitting Hogan over this. Cutting higher education is toxic in MD, especially in the DC suburbs.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Baltimote County Executive Kevin Kamenetz in.

He won reelection by 12.5% even as Hogan was walloping Brown there by 20%.

Endorsed.

[tmthforu94]

Baltimote County Executive Kevin Kamenetz in.

He won reelection by 12.5% even as Hogan was walloping Brown there by 20%.

Endorsed.

Excellent news for Governor Hogan's reelection campaign!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDVEE_Mt7sA

[PragmaticPopulist]

Baltimote County Executive Kevin Kamenetz in.

He won reelection by 12.5% even as Hogan was walloping Brown there by 20%.

Endorsed.

Excellent news for Governor Hogan's reelection campaign!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDVEE_Mt7sA

And he later apologized with humor, unlike what Trumpists would do.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2khRIqOQfQQ

[PragmaticPopulist]

Jealous will probably lose the primary but I'd be interested in hearing our resident MDers takes on his chances.

Maryland doesn't like candidates like Jealous. Just look at how Bernie Sanders got destroyed in the Maryland primary.

[TheLeftwardTide]

Jealous will probably lose the primary but I'd be interested in hearing our resident MDers takes on his chances.

Maryland doesn't like candidates like Jealous. Just look at how Bernie Sanders got destroyed in the Maryland primary.

Jamie Raskin would like to have a word with you.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jealous will probably lose the primary but I'd be interested in hearing our resident MDers takes on his chances.

Maryland doesn't like candidates like Jealous. Just look at how Bernie Sanders got destroyed in the Maryland primary.

Jamie Raskin would like to have a word with you.

1) Not a statewide race

2) Are you familiar with the term "proving the rule with the exception?"

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Honestly, I wish Sarbanes would run.

[Heisenberg]

Honestly, I wish Sarbanes would run.

He's probably waiting for Cardin to retire so he can get his father's old Senate seat.

[Kingpoleon]

Jealous will probably lose the primary but I'd be interested in hearing our resident MDers takes on his chances.

Maryland doesn't like candidates like Jealous. Just look at how Bernie Sanders got destroyed in the Maryland primary.

Yeah... If Donna Edwards, who is more moderate than Jealous, lost by a fair margin to Van Hollen, I can't see Jealous pulling it out.

[TheLeftwardTide]

Jealous will probably lose the primary but I'd be interested in hearing our resident MDers takes on his chances.

Maryland doesn't like candidates like Jealous. Just look at how Bernie Sanders got destroyed in the Maryland primary.

Jamie Raskin would like to have a word with you.

1) Not a statewide race

2) Are you familiar with the term "proving the rule with the exception?"

First, let me give my take on Jealous. I will almost definitely support him in the gubernatorial primary, as he is probably the most progressive candidate in the race.

I don't think there's some sort of "inherent centrism" in Maryland, unless if you only look at Ben Cardin (and even he isn't as centrist as, say, the Clintons). Paul Sarbanes, our state's longest-serving Senator in history, was one of the leaders of the left wing of the Democratic Party, and I wouldn't exactly call Mikulski a Clintonite. Despite my support for Edwards in the primary, I would consider Van Hollen to be quite progressive, and I would say that at least a few of my fellow MD berniecrats agree.

The reason that I brought up Raskin was because I think that a Jealous primary win would look very similar to a Raskin primary win. There are two main reasons as to why he won:
1) By far the most grassroots support - who gets excited about Kathleen Matthews?
2) A divided opposition - he won with 33.6% of the vote. Though to his credit, he was severely outspent.

Now, look at the current field. There are several candidates present, but none of them are really well-known, household-name politicians. Furthermore, Jealous is the only one who is seriously courting progressive voters, and is likely to have the most grassroots support. These are the main two factors that got Raskin to win in 2016, in an arguably harder-to-win environment (MD-08 is wealthier and more suburban than Maryland as a whole).

There is definitely a winning coalition that he could form in order to win the primary, which has three main parts:
1) African-Americans. This is by far the most important element, as they make up ~40% of the electorate (IIRC). This is also where his political strength would be most apparent, with him being the former head of the NAACP and all. A big factor here is how influential Rushern Baker is in PG county.
2) Rural Democrats in Western Maryland and Cecil County, where Bernie won. His economic progressivism could play well there.
3) Whatever progressive Democrats he could pick off in Montgomery (such as myself), Howard, and Baltimore County, Raskin-style.

Do I think that he will win? No; he's still definitely favored to lose, as he will face the similar challenges that Sanders and Edwards did due to the largely suburban nature of the state. But is he DOA? Absolutely not, and I think everyone who think he is should seriously re-assess their analysis.

With a gun to my head, I would say that Jealous has a 30% chance of winning the primary, and a 55% chance of winning the general if he gets past the primary. These numbers are largely arbitrary.

[heatcharger]

Baker is a well-established figure in PG County, and I think he may do even better than Clinton in PG and MoCo. Kamenetz will obviously do decently in Baltimore County, but I don't think he has enough of a presence in the city to overcome Baker's huge margins near the Beltway. Plus Baker helped bring the MGM to the National Harbor which was a great development, so maybe he has some good will there as well. How the rest of the state votes doesn't matter at all, and I don't really think Jealous is well-suited for rural MD anyway.

Unfortunately I think Hogan's chances for re-election have gotten a bit better because of the Purple Line ground breaking and muh longer summer vacations. This sucks because while Hogan might not be the worst blue-state Republican (I think Rauner wins that), he is certainly worse than those RINOs Scott and Baker.

[Meatball Ron]

RINOs Scott

I thought you were talking about Rick Scott and I was infinitely confused for a few minutes...

[PragmaticPopulist]

Jealous will probably lose the primary but I'd be interested in hearing our resident MDers takes on his chances.

Maryland doesn't like candidates like Jealous. Just look at how Bernie Sanders got destroyed in the Maryland primary.

Jamie Raskin would like to have a word with you.

1) Not a statewide race

2) Are you familiar with the term "proving the rule with the exception?"

First, let me give my take on Jealous. I will almost definitely support him in the gubernatorial primary, as he is probably the most progressive candidate in the race.

I don't think there's some sort of "inherent centrism" in Maryland, unless if you only look at Ben Cardin (and even he isn't as centrist as, say, the Clintons). Paul Sarbanes, our state's longest-serving Senator in history, was one of the leaders of the left wing of the Democratic Party, and I wouldn't exactly call Mikulski a Clintonite. Despite my support for Edwards in the primary, I would consider Van Hollen to be quite progressive, and I would say that at least a few of my fellow MD berniecrats agree.

The reason that I brought up Raskin was because I think that a Jealous primary win would look very similar to a Raskin primary win. There are two main reasons as to why he won:
1) By far the most grassroots support - who gets excited about Kathleen Matthews?
2) A divided opposition - he won with 33.6% of the vote. Though to his credit, he was severely outspent.

Now, look at the current field. There are several candidates present, but none of them are really well-known, household-name politicians. Furthermore, Jealous is the only one who is seriously courting progressive voters, and is likely to have the most grassroots support. These are the main two factors that got Raskin to win in 2016, in an arguably harder-to-win environment (MD-08 is wealthier and more suburban than Maryland as a whole).

There is definitely a winning coalition that he could form in order to win the primary, which has three main parts:
1) African-Americans. This is by far the most important element, as they make up ~40% of the electorate (IIRC). This is also where his political strength would be most apparent, with him being the former head of the NAACP and all. A big factor here is how influential Rushern Baker is in PG county.
2) Rural Democrats in Western Maryland and Cecil County, where Bernie won. His economic progressivism could play well there.
3) Whatever progressive Democrats he could pick off in Montgomery (such as myself), Howard, and Baltimore County, Raskin-style.

Do I think that he will win? No; he's still definitely favored to lose, as he will face the similar challenges that Sanders and Edwards did due to the largely suburban nature of the state. But is he DOA? Absolutely not, and I think everyone who think he is should seriously re-assess their analysis.

With a gun to my head, I would say that Jealous has a 30% chance of winning the primary, and a 55% chance of winning the general if he gets past the primary. These numbers are largely arbitrary.

The biggest obstacle that I think Jealous will face is that his support for single-payer could actually be a liability in MD. With the health care industry being such a large employer here, the transition could result in the industry going into disarray, with health care workers being laid off.

Democratic primary voters also seem to value elected experience, so that could also be a problem for him in the primary.

[TheLeftwardTide]

The biggest obstacle that I think Jealous will face is that his support for single-payer could actually be a liability in MD. With the health care industry being such a large employer here, the transition could result in the industry going into disarray, with health care workers being laid off.

Democratic primary voters also seem to value elected experience, so that could also be a problem for him in the primary.

I don't know about that. Which workers in the health industry would oppose single-payer?

Is it those working for federal agencies, i.e. NIH, FDA, etc.? lol no.

Is it doctors? No. Even with Obamacare in place, there are still many uninsured patients that they have to see, and so many doctors have to deal with whether or not they should be treated, and in the case of life-threatening diseases such as cancer, this decision is often very difficult to make. In California, it was Nurses United out of all groups that was most vocal about the push for single-payer.

Is it pharmacists? Not necessarily, though this argument could go either way.

The only people I can see who would be opposed to it on circumstance, in the way that you are implying, are health executives and health insurance company employees (Geico being headquartered in Chevy Chase, etc.). But really, how much of the electorate does this group take up? The former would probably vote for Hogan anyway, being more wealthy and fiscally moderate.

Really, the only way to verify these arguments is with polling data of single-payer approval in Maryland, both of the Democratic primary and general election electorates.


I would say that your second point is more valid, but keep in mind that Larry Hogan had never held elected office prior to being elected governor.