MD-Gov: Don't be Jealous!

[Bidenworth2020]

Bye bye Hogan

nobody minds hogan, nobody loves hogan.

[Bidenworth2020]

I may endorse Hogan tbh; Jealous is a Berniecrat but I just don’t trust him to run the state and don’t know much about Baker. Regardless, MD, outside the rural parts, strikes me as pro-gun control, so not a good look for Hogan.

Well, i doubt, that Carroll county, for example (mostly suburban, IIRC, but 82% for Hogan in 2014 and 63% for Trump in 2016), is a hotbed for gun control initiatives too....

Carroll County is exurban if anything and in the grand scheme of things really doesn't matter as it was only 3.7% of the total vote in the '14 Gov race. Compared to 15.3% for Montogmery County, 15.2% for Baltimore County, and 12.7% for Prince George's County.

Democrats already tried this strategy in 2014. They won Montgomery, Prince George and Baltimore city (not county, i admit) in governor election. Was it enough?. And Baltimore county, while going for Clinton in 2016, is less reflexively liberal then these three...

In 2014... We have a Senate Race now, and Hogan is beginning to sicken.me.

[Bidenworth2020]

Hogan has signed a few new gun laws.

I wonder if this will make the NRA sour on him.

this could prevent turnout from eastern md, while not being enough in the Big three, hogan just pulled a rauner lol

[Bidenworth2020]

Hogan has signed a few new gun laws.

I wonder if this will make the NRA sour on him.

The veto would have been overridden anyways.

The veto would've been virtue signalling to the Republican base. That he signed it hurts him.

moreover, heonly won in 14 with huge margins and turnout from the eastern counties

[Bidenworth2020]

oh man, this really hits hard. I knew the family well.

[Bidenworth2020]

if anything, the outrage to this has sealed my vote for jealous

[Bidenworth2020]

The problem is that Ben Cardin is on the ballot and not Chris Van Hollen.  Cardin is much more in line with people that vote for Hogan than Chris Van Hollen is, who galvanize the O'Malley blacks. That's why it's a Lean R race.

[Bidenworth2020]

I still think Jealous is being underestimated in this race. He might not be the strongest candidate, but he’s running in a Clinton +26 state with extremely unfavorable demographics for the GOP in what is guaranteed to be a Democratic wave year in MD. That’s reason enough for me to not move this out of the Toss-up column. I’m not sure if polling is really reflecting the enthusiasm gap here.

Yeah, completely agreed. Maryland is not only a Titanium D State, but a State where Democrats are much more partisan than, say, Massachusetts. Hogan only squeaked by in a GOP wave year with extremely low turnout - all circumstances that will play against him this time.

Hogan is popular now. It's not easy to unseat an incumbent as popular as Hogan, even in a state such as Maryland.

I wouldn't be surprised if Hogan won by double digits. Even in 2006, many Republican governors of blue states won re-election in landslides, and Jealous is a mediocre candidate (great ideologically, but not a good campaigner). Before you say "But Elhrich!" he was more conservative than and never as popular as Hogan.

Thats not even on the table. The state is too inelastic for that to happen. Baker can win by doubles, so can Scott and Sununu, Hogan cannot. Popularity has never equaled support, so dont just look at an approval and say, "hes sure for/never going to be reelected". I will say that most of the polls done by NYT have shown the incumbent unpopular, yet they are tying, even more so with some of the actually popular incumbents.

I would like a poll of this race, though, and perhaps NH as well.

nah, he definitely can.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/nealjsimon/status/1058081395627753474

lol, get ready to be destroyed bud.