Politico: The GOP’s Suburban Nightmare

[Nyvin]

Why exactly do you feel compelled to write "LOL" in every single one of your responses? Pot meet kettle. Why don't you go back and look at your responses. You are going out of your way to paint Republicans as "Old White People" who are going to die any second and everyone else as Democrats

Because your posts contain so much hyperbole and sometimes it's humorous.

Trump won by appealing to every shrinking demographic in the country,  it's not entirely accurate to say Republicans are just "Old White People" but it is accurate to say their agenda is definitely not the country's future...they're just trying to hold the line more than anything.

Married Couples? Shrinking

Religious people?  Shrinking

White Working Class?  Shrinking

White people overall?  Shrinking

Silent Generation?   Shrinking

People without college degrees?  Shrinking

People who believe in Science?  I dearly hope Shrinking

[GGSETTER]

Why exactly do you feel compelled to write "LOL" in every single one of your responses? Pot meet kettle. Why don't you go back and look at your responses. You are going out of your way to paint Republicans as "Old White People" who are going to die any second and everyone else as Democrats

Because you're posts contain so much hyperbole and sometimes it's humorous.

Trump won by appealing to every shrinking demographic in the country,  it's not entirely accurate to say Republicans are just "Old White People" but it is accurate to say their agenda is definitely not the country's future...they're just trying to hold the line more than anything.

Married Couples? Shrinking

Religious people?  Shrinking

White Working Class?  Shrinking

White people overall?  Shrinking

Silent Generation?   Shrinking

People without college degrees?  Shrinking

People who believe in Science?  I dearly hope Shrinking

What hyperbole are you referring to exactly? You are some nerve to talk.

Anyway I have been hearing about how the Republicans have been doomed for the last 8 years yet the GOP just keeps gaining power. I'm suprised that there are still a few people such as yourself that actually believe it. But hey that is your problem not mine.

As a Republican I hope there continues to be a minority of Democrats that choose to bury their heads in the sand and hope that "Muh Demographics" will save them.

[GGSETTER]

Also what exactly do you think the Presidential Popular Vote means exactly? I feel like that is your Particpation Trophy.

His point is that Republicans are weak on the presidential level, and he isn't wrong. It's not like they can't win, but it means their wins require clawing together a coalition just big enough to secure a small victory. You can say what you want about GOP success downballot, but Republicans have not really been successful at the presidential level for an abnormal length of time. Trump barely won in WI/MI/PA/FL. Of course, some people may say, "if he just won the popular vote, this margins in those states would be bigger," and that's the point - Republicans have a lot of difficulty winning the PV because their presidential coalition is weak.

Coalitions are always changing. The Democrats keep getting clobbered they will change their platform to attract a better Coalition.

I guess it depends on what you mean by "coalitions are always changing," but that is not really true unless you're talking over a period of decades. Certain generations have almost always leaned towards a certain party, usually identifying with the party they supported in their youth. Studies have shown as much. Partisan loyalties get harder to change as people age, taking bigger and bigger major events to shake them up.

As for "demographics is destiny" - African Americans and Hispanic voters have long been strong Democratic groups, for generations. If a state's minority population is constantly growing, basic math would suggest Democrats would do better there. In this context, "coalitions are always changing" as argument for continued Republican success in such a state would mean "Republicans winning more white voters," which is kind of hard when the GOP is already about tapped out in states like Georgia and Texas. Unless you think every state has the potential to see Mississippi-like Republican support from whites, it doesn't add up. If you think Republicans would *finally* make inroads with minorities after literally half a century, I'd imagine the onus is on you to articulate why.

I think you have a lot of really good points. Thank you for the intelligent discussion. I just think that Voter Preference is more elastic then a lot of people believe. It least it was in my case

[Virginiá]

*ahem*

I'll just leave this new link here:

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/08/virginia-elections-suburban-data-244713

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The difference being that 8 years of a mostly unpopular Democratic president had strengthened GOP electoral prospects downballot and depressed the Democratic base. Now that there is a deeply unpopular Republican president, we're likely to see an acceleration of long-coming political losses for Republicans in places they were destined to be kicked out of once the environment turned against them.

After all, at least in my opinion, it would be absurd to think the Republican Party's baseline in the country is where they are at now. They are greatly over-extended in many places, and 2018, 2019 and 2020 and then the 2020s after more neutral redistricting will likely see a correction - probably a big correction in some places.

[RINO Tom]

Even though DC's and Philly's suburbs are more Democratic-leaning than many other metros, there is no denying that these results are alarming and should scare Republicans.  Without suburban support (and that extends WAY beyond "Romney/Clinton" places or "Clinton/Downballot R" places), the GOP is screwed, just as Democrats are screwed with only urban support.  The GOP will probably plss this down its leg and lose many of those seats, but they'd be wise to realize that losing some of their most traditional stomping grounds is recipe for disaster for the party.  I fear now that they won't.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Why exactly do you feel compelled to write "LOL" in every single one of your responses? Pot meet kettle. Why don't you go back and look at your responses. You are going out of your way to paint Republicans as "Old White People" who are going to die any second and everyone else as Democrats

Because your posts contain so much hyperbole and sometimes it's humorous.

Trump won by appealing to every shrinking demographic in the country,  it's not entirely accurate to say Republicans are just "Old White People" but it is accurate to say their agenda is definitely not the country's future...they're just trying to hold the line more than anything.

Married Couples? Shrinking

Religious people?  Shrinking

White Working Class?  Shrinking

White people overall?  Shrinking

Silent Generation?   Shrinking

People without college degrees?  Shrinking

People who believe in Science?  I dearly hope Shrinking

It's true that conservatism is an inherently defeatist ideology in that it always attempts to hold the line and thus allows the left to dictate terms of the debate and rarely reverses anything major, Trumpism is quite different. He gave people something to vote for. Make America Great Again as opposed to "let's not have America become socialist and also I'll cut taxes and I go to church just like you."

Now for the demographic argument. There si no deny that the browning of America is a threat to the GOP, especially when it puts Texas in play. That said, it has been largely countered by white voters leaving a democrat party that no longer represents them. The other ones are not as big of a deal.

Age? That argument has been around for decades. The very same Boomers who now are the backbone of the GOP were once like today's Millenials, saying that they would usher in a progressive future when the old people died off. As they got married and had kids, they shifted right. This pattern played out with Gen X as well. Gen Z is already to the right of the Millenials, as well.

Married couples may be less common now, but most people will still be getting married. The institution is far from dead.

Religion is certainly on the decline, but so is the democrat party's support in that demographic. I also expect secular whites to shift right over time.

As for education, Trump still won whites with degrees. He did worse than Romney with them. That we all know. But why was this? Having gone door to door in suburban PA (an area that voted for Clinton), I found that the top reasons why republicans and independents had apprehensions about Trump were all his personality, not his policies. Nationalist right wing populism won in spite of Trump, not because of a cult of personality as the media so often describes. Take away the Access Hollywood tapes and the overall impression that Trump is at times an immature asshole who needs to get off twitter and he'd have gotten those republican leaning voters who stayed home.

The "believe in science" argument is laughable coming from people who dismiss race and gender as social constructs and formed mobs to stop Charles Murray from speaking because The Bell Curve hurts their feelings. Global warming is real, but alarmists have killed their credibility with apocalyptic predictions, it's only partially man-made, and the temperature today is still lower than when Rome was founded.

- A young white guy who is not married, does not believe in God (precisely because I'm scientifically minded and can't believe without empirical evidence), and is currently in college.

[Karpatsky]

Gen Z is already to the right of the Millenials, as well.

Edgy 16-year-olds will not continue to think Trump is so cool once they have student loans to pay.

[Young Conservative]

Gen Z is already to the right of the Millenials, as well.

Edgy 16-year-olds will not continue to think Trump is so cool once they have student loans to pay.

Edgy Bernie Millenials continue thinking universal healthcare is cool until they have to pay the taxes for it...

[Karpatsky]

Gen Z is already to the right of the Millenials, as well.

Edgy 16-year-olds will not continue to think Trump is so cool once they have student loans to pay.

Edgy Bernie Millenials continue thinking universal healthcare is cool until they have to pay the taxes for it...

And they'll continue to think so because universal health care won't happen. Republican control of government will not provide Gen Z with real reasons to support them as they grow up.

[Virginiá]

Young people were not always saying they were going to usher in a new progressive era only to turn Republican. There were plenty of times where young people voted majority Republican. It was landslides among 18-29 year olds with Reagan. Further, there is a reason right now why the 30 - 44 age group is starting to skew a lot more Democratic, this was also on full display in Virginia as well. When a party commands such massive margins among 18 - 29 year olds, it's not unreasonable to expect some erosion as they age (for various reasons), but the idea that Millennials and gen z are just going to flip to Republicans when they get older is pure garbage. It's a flimsy idea built on flimsy evidence that past generations already prove wrong. As far as I can tell, the basis of this has almost entirely been due to the past generation seeing such a huge age divide, as if that is always how its been and will be. Such a lack of imagination, I must say.

It reminds me of people thinking midterms are always going to favor Republicans just because 2010 and 2014 favored Republicans, conveniently ignoring the unpopular Democratic president at the top dragging his party down when he's not on the ballot.

[RINO Tom]

Young people were not always saying they were going to usher in a new progressive era only to turn Republican. There were plenty of times where young people voted majority Republican. It was landslides among 18-29 year olds with Reagan. Further, there is a reason right now why the 30 - 44 age group is starting to skew a lot more Democratic, something was on full display in Virginia as well. When a party commands such massive margins among 18 - 29 year olds, it's not unreasonable to expect some erosion as they age, but the idea that Millennials and gen z are just going to flip to Republicans when they get older is pure garbage. It's a flimsy idea built on flimsy evidence that past generations already prove wrong.

Yeah, there seems to be a lot more evidence that voters/generations keep their political preferences, for the most part.  Looking back at exit polls of many Southern elections in the 1990s, for example, shows older voters reliably Democratic and younger ones Republican, but no one ever looks at that aspect closely enough and just treats groups like "Virginia Whites" as the same no matter what year it is.  There is no evidence that Millennials will become GOP voters anytime in the future.

[PoliticalShelter]

Looking at the 1980 and 1984 exit polls, it seems that Reagan best group was with the over 50s in 1980 and with over 65s in 1984 (aka as the GI Generation) so I'm not really sure if it really applies that much on the presidential level.
It seems if anything to apply a lot more at the down ballot level where even though republican presidents would often win southern states by large margins, they would seemed to stick with their local democrats, right up until the GI generation began to began to die off (starting at around the 2000s).

http://news.gallup.com/poll/9460/election-polls-vote-groups-19761980.aspx

http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-1984/

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Gen Z is already to the right of the Millenials, as well.

Edgy 16-year-olds will not continue to think Trump is so cool once they have student loans to pay.

Edgy Bernie Millenials continue thinking universal healthcare is cool until they have to pay the taxes for it...

Yeah instead they get to pay even more on dogpoop private insurance that gives you worse coverage for more money.

[RINO Tom]

Gen Z is already to the right of the Millenials, as well.

Edgy 16-year-olds will not continue to think Trump is so cool once they have student loans to pay.

Edgy Bernie Millenials continue thinking universal healthcare is cool until they have to pay the taxes for it...

Yeah instead they get to pay even more on dogpoop private insurance that gives you worse coverage for more money.

Unless you are for some reason not including the huge tax burden as part of paying, source on the bolded?

[Karpatsky]

Gen Z is already to the right of the Millenials, as well.

Edgy 16-year-olds will not continue to think Trump is so cool once they have student loans to pay.

Edgy Bernie Millenials continue thinking universal healthcare is cool until they have to pay the taxes for it...

Yeah instead they get to pay even more on dogpoop private insurance that gives you worse coverage for more money.

Unless you are for some reason not including the huge tax burden as part of paying, source on the bolded?

Including both private and public expenditure, US is far above many countries with universal systems in terms of health care costs. It's not inconceivable that total costs for such a system would be less considering the tax burden. I'm too new to post links but if you search 'World Bank Health expenditure per capita' you'll find the statistics.