1952-Truman v Eisenhower

[Bidenworth2020]

discuss with maps and percentages

[West_Midlander]

266 electoral votes to win

Pres. Harry S. Truman (D-MO) / Fmr. Pres. Pro Tempore of PA Senate John S. Rice (D-PA)
273 EVs
49.3%
Pres. of Columbia University Dwight D. Eisenhower (R-NY) / Sen. Richard Nixon (R-CA)
258 EVs
50.2%

[Kamala]

What causes Truman to dump Barkley?

[West_Midlander]

What causes Truman to dump Barkley?

Facing a tough challenge for re-election, and with the South sealed up, he drops Barkley (Kentuckian) in favor of Washington-outsider and Pennsylvanian (to help prospects to win PA), Rice.

[Mr. Smith]

Truman/Barkley: 171 EV, 45%
Eisenhower/Nixon: 366 EV, 54%

[Hoosier_Nick]

Truman/Barkley: 171 EV, 45%
Eisenhower/Nixon: 366 EV, 54%

I agree with this, except maybe flip VA.

[MIKESOWELL]

Why would Illinois go for Truman in this scenario, when Stevenson lost his home state to Ike by ten points in real life?

[Kingpoleon]

352: Dwight Eisenhower/Earl Warren
160: Harry S. Truman/Paul Dever
19: Hugh L. White/John Sparkman

[mencken]

Why would Illinois go for Truman in this scenario, when Stevenson lost his home state to Ike by ten points in real life?

For that matter, why does anyone think an incumbent with approvals in the 20s who lost in the primaries would be even remotely competitive against the Allied commander of WWII?

[Lord Admirale]

Easy win for Ike. Truman was almost as unpopular as Dubya in 08

[OSR stands with Israel]

Eisenhower/Nixon 418
Truman/Barkley 113

[RogueBeaver]

Last map is one I agree with. Truman '52 is like Dubya '08 - indeed CW (Dems very much included) pegged him as Dem Dubya in his own lifetime. Only way for Truman to be competitive in '52 is have Chiang win in China, which leaves "more corruption than usual" in K1C2.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

[Mr. Smith]

Why would Illinois go for Truman in this scenario, when Stevenson lost his home state to Ike by ten points in real life?

Truman wouldn't look like an egghead to Downstaters like Stevenson did. Also the incumbency would give a slight advantage.


As for Virginia, the military complex along with the VA-6 Area [which went to Willkie and Dewey] would override the other parts enough to flip it.

[President Johnson]

No way this would have been a head-to-head contest since President Truman was unacceptable to Southern Democrats for his pro-Civil-Rights stances.

General Dwight D. Eisenhower (R-PA)/Senator Richard Nixon (R-CA): 371 EV. (52.35%)
President Harry S. Truman (D-MO)/Vice President Alben Barkley (D-KY): 115 EV. (43.71%)
Senator Strom Thurmond (Dixie-SC)/Admiral John G. Vrommelin (Dixie-AL): 45 EV. (3.07%)

[Fuzzy Bear]

No way this would have been a head-to-head contest since President Truman was unacceptable to Southern Democrats for his pro-Civil-Rights stances.

General Dwight D. Eisenhower (R-PA)/Senator Richard Nixon (R-CA): 371 EV. (52.35%)
President Harry S. Truman (D-MO)/Vice President Alben Barkley (D-KY): 115 EV. (43.71%)
Senator Strom Thurmond (Dixie-SC)/Admiral John G. Vrommelin (Dixie-AL): 45 EV. (3.07%)

I gave Truman the 11 Southern States, plus OK, WV, KY, and MO.  Everything else to Eisenhower.

I disagree with your assessment of the South.  After 1948, there was a reconciliation of sorts, and most of the Dixiecrats rejoined the Democratic Party.  There was a reason for this; the only states that the Thurmond-Wright ticket carried in 1948 were the states where the DEMOCRATIC electors were pledged to Thurmond and Wright.  The issues that brought Southern Democrats to Eisenhower were the economic conservatism of folks like Sen. Harry Byrd (D-VA) and the issue of ownership of the Tidelands Oil, which led TX and LA to the GOP camp.  Had Truman ran a second time, he'd have carried the South. 

Had this really happened, had Truman actually ran in 1952, I believe he may well have selected a Southern Governor or Senator.  My speculative pick would have been Sen. John McClellan (D-AR).  McClellan was a conservative, but a loyal Democrat.  Another pick MIGHT have been Arkansas Gov. Sid McMath, who has been judged by some as Arkansas's greatest governor ever, but McMath had powerful enemies. 

The key for Truman to have been re-elected over Eisenhower, of course, would have been for the city bosses in New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Boston, Detroit, and New Jersey to pull out all the stops for the Truman ticket.  Machine politics was much more in vogue in 1952.  On the other hand, Eisenhower was universally popular and had appeal to Democrats, many of whom wished Ike were THEIR nominee.  Eisenhower lived in NY in 1952.  I can't see Truman beating Eisenhower; people were fed up with him.  This is hard for lots of folks who read about how great a President Truman was nowadays to wrap their minds around, but "To Err is Truman" was the driving sentiment of Harry's low approval rating at the time he left office.

[Don Vito Corleone]

266 electoral votes to win

Pres. Harry S. Truman (D-MO) / Fmr. Pres. Pro Tempore of PA Senate John S. Rice (D-PA)
273 EVs
49.3%
Pres. of Columbia University Dwight D. Eisenhower (R-NY) / Sen. Richard Nixon (R-CA)
258 EVs
50.2%

No way, Truman was way too unpopular to win re-election against Ike.