GA-GOV 2018: Can Democrats win Georgia's governorship?

[Suburbia]

After the disappointing loss in GA-06 with Jon Ossoff, can Democrats win Georgia's governorship for the first time since 1998? Stacey Abrams, a black woman, and Stacey Evans, a white woman will face off in what is likely to be a bitter Democratic gubernatorial primary that could turn racial. Can Georgia Democrats win in 2018?

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/03/georgia-2018-stacey-abrams-runs-to-be-states-first-black-governor/

http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2017/05/25/georgia-rep-stacey-evans-running-for-governor.html

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Barring Trump falling below 25% approval GA-Gov should stay red.  I believe their first real chance to win it will be in 2022 or 2026.

[windjammer]

Probably not. They are going to nominate a black woman, I don't think GA is ready for that yet, maybe in 10 years.

[GlobeSoc]

No, but it will be too close to call on election night.

[smoltchanov]

Unlikely. Especially with black woman as a candidate.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

No, but Abrams can build the infrastructure the Dems will need to capture the state in the 2020s with this race in the 2010s.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Probably, though they would need to be able to win a runoff as I doubt any Dem. nominee could get to 50% + 1 on election night. Anyway to all of those that think Georgia is fools gold for Dems, I point out how so many though the same about Pennsylvania for Republicans in Presidential contests.

[windjammer]

Probably, though they would need to be able to win a runoff as I doubt any Dem. nominee could get to 50% + 1 on election night. Anyway to all of those that think Georgia is fools gold for Dems, I point out how so many though the same about Pennsylvania for Republicans in Presidential contests.

GA is much more inelastic though.

[Mr. Smith]

Probably, though they would need to be able to win a runoff as I doubt any Dem. nominee could get to 50% + 1 on election night. Anyway to all of those that think Georgia is fools gold for Dems, I point out how so many though the same about Pennsylvania for Republicans in Presidential contests.

GA is much more inelastic though.

So was Virginia, then Obama flipped it and it hasn't gone back, sans McDonnell anyway.

It's unlikely and improbable though, especially without Jason Carter. Not impossible.

[Beet]

Yeah, the Democrat can definitely win this race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, the Dems will pickup FL, IL, NV, NJ, NH, MD, MI and NM while not losing any. Jason Carter would have won.

[Roronoa D. Law]

If Jason Carter had ran yes. Hate to say but Stacy Abrams doesn't stand a chance. Georgia is doing great rights now. As someone who raised in Atlanta I do not see GA electing a black women until the African American voter share is at least 40%. If she wins its because Republican candidate had a Vitter level scandal.

[Cactus Jack]

It's right on the edge of feasibility, but they'd need a perfect candidate and an airtight campaign to do it.

[Bojack Horseman]

Probably not. They are going to nominate a black woman, I don't think GA is ready for that yet, maybe in 10 years.

Unfortunately I was thinking the same thing.

[Kamala]

Although it would be great for Abrams to win, the demographics just aren't there. Her best bet is to target the same voters Ossoff did by highlighting her bipartisanship, but we all saw how that worked out :/.

I don't see Evans winning either; she's no Bev Perdue or Kathy Blanco. The primary will most likely be vicious, and Evans'll've a hard time getting both crossover votes and turning out the base, African Americans.

[Pollster]

Not impossible but an uphill battle. The GOP advantage in the state is narrowing by the day and in a wave, it could come down to a handful of votes.

[Rookie Yinzer]

She will not get enough of the white vote. A Dem candidate needs at least 30 percent to win statewide. Maybe she will increase the AA voter share but she will not convert the Clinton Republicans which helped HRC perform better in Georgia than Obama.

[Lord Admirale]

Absolutely not considering Jason Carter isn't running

[PragmaticPopulist]

Not completely out of the picture, but I doubt they can win with a black woman from the Atlanta area as the nominee. I just don't think Georgia's quite ready for it. Of course, I could be wrong, since people said the same thing about a black man winning North Carolina in 2008.

Dems in Georgia should use 2018 as a bench-building year. Especially in the black belt. While Atlanta may be becoming the new Northern Virginia, it's still not enough to overcome the overwhelming Republican lean of northern Georgia, and candidates from the black belt will be harder for Republicans to tie to cosmopolitan elites.

[Kamala]

Does Sally Yates have a future?

Perhaps as a challenger to Perdue or Isakson's eventual open seat?

[Cactus Jack]

Does Sally Yates have a future?

Perhaps as a challenger to Perdue or Isakson's eventual open seat?

I wonder what district she lives in. If it's GA-6, I would pay good money to see Yates vs. Handel.

[TheSaint250]

No

[Jeppe]

Possibly, I'd say it's somewhere between Lean R and Likely R. Closer to Lean than to Likely though, with Abrams as the candidate against a generic Georgia Republican. Sally Yates likely would've been able to keep it close or even win GA-06 and GA-07, and win statewide, but probably not Stacey Abrams.

[Kingpoleon]

Yes. However, Barrow or Nunn would be stronger candidates than Abrams or Evans, in my opinion.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Carl Brewer and Ben Jealous can be elected Gov and so can a black female. We will have to see.