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  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Why did Romney underperform so much? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why did Romney underperform so much?  (Read 5976 times)
RINO Tom
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Posts: 13,203
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Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« on: June 26, 2017, 08:54:48 am »

I wouldn't say Romney seemed to lack empathy, but whatever.  I think the answer is, for however reckless he was with the overall state of the Democratic Party, Obama was a good Presidential candidate who resonated with a lot of people.  If he hadn't lost a lot of racist former Democrats in 2008 (aka had been a White male), he would have won in an absolute landslide.  NOTE: this is not even close to saying that people who didn't vote for him were racists, as I did not support the guy, but there were certainly a significant number of Democrats who voted for out-of-touch-Massachusetts-liberal John Kerry and refused to vote for Obama, likely because of his race.
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RINO Tom
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,203
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2017, 03:15:22 pm »

I wouldn't say Romney seemed to lack empathy, but whatever.  I think the answer is, for however reckless he was with the overall state of the Democratic Party, Obama was a good Presidential candidate who resonated with a lot of people.  If he hadn't lost a lot of racist former Democrats in 2008 (aka had been a White male), he would have won in an absolute landslide.  NOTE: this is not even close to saying that people who didn't vote for him were racists, as I did not support the guy, but there were certainly a significant number of Democrats who voted for out-of-touch-Massachusetts-liberal John Kerry and refused to vote for Obama, likely because of his race.

What?

What is confusing or controversial about suggesting that there were Democratic voters who voted for John Kerry but not Barrack Obama in some areas of the country?  I then made the point that it's not like thinking Obama was "out of touch" or "elitist" would be a legitimate reason to not vote for him if you'd previously cast a vote for John Kerry.
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RINO Tom
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,203
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2017, 03:29:04 pm »

I wouldn't say Romney seemed to lack empathy, but whatever.  I think the answer is, for however reckless he was with the overall state of the Democratic Party, Obama was a good Presidential candidate who resonated with a lot of people.  If he hadn't lost a lot of racist former Democrats in 2008 (aka had been a White male), he would have won in an absolute landslide.  NOTE: this is not even close to saying that people who didn't vote for him were racists, as I did not support the guy, but there were certainly a significant number of Democrats who voted for out-of-touch-Massachusetts-liberal John Kerry and refused to vote for Obama, likely because of his race.

What?
Yeah outside of Arkansa this was obviously not the case in most southern states which moved about couple percentage point away from Obama (and a chunk of that was probably generational replacement).

In an election where the country moved 8 points in the Democrats' direction, Oklahoma moved .15% to McCain, Louisiana moved 4.12% toward McCain, Tennessee moved .80% toward McCain, West Virginia moved 2.26% toward McCain and Arkansas moved an almost astounding 10.09% toward the Republican ticket.

Again, I'd like to hear another hypothesis why a very significant chunk of former Democratic voters would vote for John Kerry but not Barrack Obama.  Both are socially liberal, more "academic" types from highly populated areas who were accused by the Republicans of being out of touch with Middle America and elitist.
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RINO Tom
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,203
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2017, 04:19:09 pm »

I wouldn't say Romney seemed to lack empathy, but whatever.  I think the answer is, for however reckless he was with the overall state of the Democratic Party, Obama was a good Presidential candidate who resonated with a lot of people.  If he hadn't lost a lot of racist former Democrats in 2008 (aka had been a White male), he would have won in an absolute landslide.  NOTE: this is not even close to saying that people who didn't vote for him were racists, as I did not support the guy, but there were certainly a significant number of Democrats who voted for out-of-touch-Massachusetts-liberal John Kerry and refused to vote for Obama, likely because of his race.

What?
Yeah outside of Arkansa this was obviously not the case in most southern states which moved about couple percentage point away from Obama (and a chunk of that was probably generational replacement).

In an election where the country moved 8 points in the Democrats' direction, Oklahoma moved .15% to McCain, Louisiana moved 4.12% toward McCain, Tennessee moved .80% toward McCain, West Virginia moved 2.26% toward McCain and Arkansas moved an almost astounding 10.09% toward the Republican ticket.

Again, I'd like to hear another hypothesis why a very significant chunk of former Democratic voters would vote for John Kerry but not Barrack Obama.  Both are socially liberal, more "academic" types from highly populated areas who were accused by the Republicans of being out of touch with Middle America and elitist.
Maybe there were still a few yellow-dog stragglers left when Kerry ran, and they died off and/or switched to voting Republican starting in 2008. The same thing happened in southwestern Virginia (or VA-09). Obama was the first Democrat since George McGovern to lose all SW VA counties aside from Montgomery County, home of Virginia Tech.

And you don't think his race played any part in that?
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RINO Tom
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,203
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #4 on: July 03, 2017, 04:52:33 pm »

I wouldn't say Romney seemed to lack empathy, but whatever.  I think the answer is, for however reckless he was with the overall state of the Democratic Party, Obama was a good Presidential candidate who resonated with a lot of people.  If he hadn't lost a lot of racist former Democrats in 2008 (aka had been a White male), he would have won in an absolute landslide.  NOTE: this is not even close to saying that people who didn't vote for him were racists, as I did not support the guy, but there were certainly a significant number of Democrats who voted for out-of-touch-Massachusetts-liberal John Kerry and refused to vote for Obama, likely because of his race.

What?
Yeah outside of Arkansa this was obviously not the case in most southern states which moved about couple percentage point away from Obama (and a chunk of that was probably generational replacement).

In an election where the country moved 8 points in the Democrats' direction, Oklahoma moved .15% to McCain, Louisiana moved 4.12% toward McCain, Tennessee moved .80% toward McCain, West Virginia moved 2.26% toward McCain and Arkansas moved an almost astounding 10.09% toward the Republican ticket.

Again, I'd like to hear another hypothesis why a very significant chunk of former Democratic voters would vote for John Kerry but not Barrack Obama.  Both are socially liberal, more "academic" types from highly populated areas who were accused by the Republicans of being out of touch with Middle America and elitist.

Or... well.. it could be that those states have been trending heavily Republican since 2000. Clinton did significantly worse in the states you mentioned, and the last time I checked she isn't black. IIRC, you are also the one who insists that she would have won most of them in 2008, so this is quite inconsistent with your claim that Obama only did poorly there because of his race.

Basically what PragmaticPopulist said. Also, even if what you said was true, there aren't nearly enough of these racist "Dixiecrats" to make a significant difference in the PV.

I believe some of the early polls that suggest Clinton would have carried AR and WV if she had been the nominee in 2008, and how is that inconsistent with the belief that these states had significant "racist Dixiecrat" populations?
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