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Author Topic: Independent Kasich campaign?  (Read 1794 times)
Fmr. Acting Southern Del. The Saint
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« on: June 26, 2017, 06:11:46 am »
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This is really becoming more likely, especially since he just said that neither party cares about the poor.
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« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2017, 10:25:33 am »
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I would consider voting for him if the Democrats nominate another corporate shill.
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« Reply #2 on: June 26, 2017, 10:43:35 am »
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If Kasich runs in 2020, I think an independent campaign is probably his most likely route. It's nearly impossible to defeat an incumbent president in the primaries, and if he had good infrastructure and decent connections, he could all but guarantee ballot placement in every state.
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« Reply #3 on: June 26, 2017, 11:36:38 am »
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Former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC) - 473 EV 41% PV

President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) - 65 EV 34% PV

Former Governor John Kasich (I-OH)/Former CIA director Evan McMullin (I-UT) - 0 EV 21% PV
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« Reply #4 on: June 26, 2017, 01:19:03 pm »
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He should do it to moderate the GOP and crack it in half in order to get its proverbial head on straight.

Also Medal, just a quick point out, EM was an OPSO (operations officer) at the Agency and not the Director.
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« Reply #5 on: June 26, 2017, 01:22:52 pm »
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262: Kamala Harris/Pete Buttigieg - 40.6%
235: Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 37.0%
41: John Kasich/Jim Matheson - 21.2%
Others - 1.2%
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« Reply #6 on: June 26, 2017, 01:30:16 pm »
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Former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC) - 473 EV 41% PV

President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) - 65 EV 34% PV

Former Governor John Kasich (I-OH)/Former CIA director Evan McMullin (I-UT) - 0 EV 21% PV


I think you have Kasich doing too well in the South. The Democratic nominee would likely get >40% in VA, GA, NC, and Florida. I doubt Kasich would keep Trump below 40% in Kentucky, Tennessee, or Mississippi as well. if Kasich does this well, Clinton wins MS and probably LA too.
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« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2017, 01:36:31 pm »
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I wonder about Ohio.  Many think it will swing towards Kasich, but, assuming pre-2016-election polling is true, Kasich would take a large amount of the votes from Trump, but Trump would also keep many Republicans. There's a good chance the state would go for the Democrat.
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« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2017, 02:09:32 pm »
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I wonder about Ohio.  Many think it will swing towards Kasich, but, assuming pre-2016-election polling is true, Kasich would take a large amount of the votes from Trump, but Trump would also keep many Republicans. There's a good chance the state would go for the Democrat.

I think the breakdown would be something like 30% Trump, 33% Kasich, 38% Democrat in Ohio.
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« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2017, 02:16:24 pm »
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It would probably be a terrible idea, and we would end up with another election of 1912. If Kasich just wants to run to ruin Trump, I guess it would make sense.
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« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2017, 02:24:24 pm »
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It would probably be a terrible idea, and we would end up with another election of 1912. If Kasich just wants to run to ruin Trump, I guess it would make sense.
Imagine that: something like Trump vs. Booker vs. Kasich vs. Sanders.
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« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2017, 02:31:39 pm »
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It would probably be a terrible idea, and we would end up with another election of 1912. If Kasich just wants to run to ruin Trump, I guess it would make sense.
Imagine that: something like Trump vs. Booker vs. Kasich vs. Sanders.

In such a scenario, I think Kasich wins Ohio, Sanders wins Vermont, Trump wins KY, WV, TN, AR, OK, NE-CD 3 and maybe one or both of the Dakotas, while Booker wins everything else.
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« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2017, 02:46:50 pm »
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good for Democrats
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« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2017, 03:07:17 pm »
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If Kasich wants to do this (not sure he does), he probably needs a Dem running mate (some washed-up ex-officeholder).

My suspicion is that Kasich is trying to leave his doors open. If Trump is unpopular in 2019, primary him. If Trump is solid with the GOP but underwater everywhere else, go Indy. If Trump is a raging success, go into exile stay out of the race.
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« Reply #14 on: June 26, 2017, 03:14:48 pm »
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I wonder about Ohio.  Many think it will swing towards Kasich, but, assuming pre-2016-election polling is true, Kasich would take a large amount of the votes from Trump, but Trump would also keep many Republicans. There's a good chance the state would go for the Democrat.

Kasich: 933,886
Democrat: 766,349
Trump: 713,404   
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TexArkana
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« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2017, 03:28:05 pm »
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I wonder about Ohio.  Many think it will swing towards Kasich, but, assuming pre-2016-election polling is true, Kasich would take a large amount of the votes from Trump, but Trump would also keep many Republicans. There's a good chance the state would go for the Democrat.

Kasich: 933,886
Democrat: 766,349
Trump: 713,404   

If Kasich won Ohio as a third party, it would be by a very slim margin. probably something like 35% Kasich, 33% Trump, 33% Clinton.
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« Reply #16 on: June 26, 2017, 03:38:35 pm »
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262: Kamala Harris/Pete Buttigieg - 40.6%
235: Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 37.0%
41: John Kasich/Jim Matheson - 21.2%
Others - 1.2%
Seems about right, though I would probably give Kamala Harris Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Georgia, Florida, and maybe even New Hampshire.
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« Reply #17 on: June 26, 2017, 03:44:17 pm »
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This would be even better if Sanders joins the race as an independent.
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« Reply #18 on: June 26, 2017, 03:51:34 pm »
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If Kasich ran against Trump in the GOP primary, I would strongly consider switching parties to vote for him in the primary.
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« Reply #19 on: June 26, 2017, 03:58:59 pm »
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If Kasich runs in 2020, I think an independent campaign is probably his most likely route. It's nearly impossible to defeat an incumbent president in the primaries, and if he had good infrastructure and decent connections, he could all but guarantee ballot placement in every state.

It's nearly impossible to win as an Indy too.  In any case, many people run for president despite having no realistic chance of winning.  It happens all the time.  And there's an argument to be made for running for the GOP nomination rather than running 3rd party: It takes the "spoiler" argument off the table.  If you're running 3rd party, and are a distant 3rd place in the polls, then many will dismiss you out of hand because what's the point of "throwing your vote away" when the real contest is between the Dem. and GOP nominees?  Whereas if you challenge Trump in the primary and you're his only main opponent for the nomination, then that's a moot point.

I would not rule out either Kasich or some other "mainstream" GOP politico (most likely someone who, like Kasich as of 2020, no longer holds political office and has nothing to lose) challenging Trump in the primary.  Of course, they're not going to win, just like Buchanan was never going to beat Bush in the 1992 primary.  The point wouldn't be to win.  It'd be to lay down a marker as a sort of act of protest against the Trump-ified version of the GOP.  There's a reasonable chance that some kind of challenge like that will come from either the "center" (in the form of Kasich or someone Kasich-like), or from the libertarian wing of the party (most likely Amash or Paul).  Of course, the challenge won't succeed, but a Buchanan-like showing of more than 20% of the national popular vote in the primaries isn't out of the question.
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« Reply #20 on: June 26, 2017, 04:12:29 pm »
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I would vote for Kasich. I'm a centrist.
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« Reply #21 on: June 27, 2017, 03:16:04 pm »
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Today I watched Kasich and Hickenlooper give a press conference on the health care bill, and now they're being interviewed on CNN together. An independent Kasich/Hickenlooper ticket would be really interesting.
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« Reply #22 on: June 27, 2017, 04:56:02 pm »
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Democrats: Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)/ Congressman Joaquin Castro (D-TX) 217 EVs 24% PV
Republicans: President Donald Trump (R-NY)/ Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) 83 EVs 22.5% PV
Independent Moderates: Former Governor John Kasich (R-OH)/ Former Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 101 EVs 22% PV
Democratic Socialists: Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)/ Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) 137 EVs 21% PV
Libertarians: Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)/ Justin Amash (R-MI) 0 EVs 10.5% PV

There was brutal infighting within both parties as Trumps scandals worsen (he is impeached over obstruction of justice after Democrats take the house in 2018 and is acquitted by a two vote margin) , the AHCA passes and result in an even larger increase in premiums and millions unable to afford coverage, the economy slows down to a halt as a recession is pending, Trump invades Iran and Syria, and a divisive primaries result in third party bids. Kasich primaries Trump as a moderate centrist option, and Rand Paul runs as a libertarian leaner and both lost handily to Trump. The Democratic primaries begin with 20 candidates which later ends as a contest Bernie and Booker after Super Tuesday. Bernie represents the progressive wing and the WWC while Booker goes after black and brown voters. Bernie ends with with a small delegate lead, but Booker's Super PACs bribe most superdelegates and delegates of states won by other candidates. Booker wins the Democratic nomination on the second round of voting, and Bernie storms out of the convention hall and announces his bid for the White House the following morning. The general election campaigns are brutal, but satisfying for voters as 40 million adults register to vote for the first time as people realize that there will be no wasted votes in any state this election. Trump enters the general election with a 19% approval rating due to the large casualties in his incompetently fought wars and orders the troops to shoot thousands of protesters during the Labor Day anti-war protests of 2020 across America in which 20 million Americans participated in as well as continued turmoil in Congress, and race relations continue to spiral out of control. The biggest surprise on election day was when Trump reached 4th place in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives must choose between Booker, Sanders, and Kasich. Congressional Democrats split between Booker and Sanders while Kasich narrowly wins with the hesitant support of most Republicans as some far-right Republicans abstain from voting. Kasich is later inaugurated and must re-unify the country as he pledges to work with the Democratic controlled congress to combat the collapsing economy and end the wars.
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« Reply #23 on: June 27, 2017, 07:52:34 pm »
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Kasich is a Republican who isn't far from where the party actually is.

If he's had an epiphany about poor folks, he ought to switch and become a Democrat.  He'd have a better chance to be President trying to run as a moderate Democrat.  Not that it would be easy, and it would probably fail, but an Independent Kasich 2020 bid would DEFINITELY fail.
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« Reply #24 on: June 27, 2017, 09:49:43 pm »
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At some point, a Kasich - type candidacy is probably likely to happen as a third party candidacy. The goal would be to split the Republican Party and would likely be successful.
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