Independent Kasich campaign?

[Kingpoleon]

262: Kamala Harris/Pete Buttigieg - 40.6%
235: Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 37.0%
41: John Kasich/Jim Matheson - 21.2%
Others - 1.2%

[Kingpoleon]

I wonder about Ohio.  Many think it will swing towards Kasich, but, assuming pre-2016-election polling is true, Kasich would take a large amount of the votes from Trump, but Trump would also keep many Republicans. There's a good chance the state would go for the Democrat.

Kasich: 933,886
Democrat: 766,349
Trump: 713,404   

[Kingpoleon]

What do ya'll think of this scenario?

Democrats: Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)/ Congressman Joaquin Castro (D-TX) 217 EVs 24% PV
Republicans: President Donald Trump (R-NY)/ Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) 83 EVs 22.5% PV
Independent Moderates: Former Governor John Kasich (R-OH)/ Former Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO) 101 EVs 22% PV
Democratic Socialists: Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)/ Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) 137 EVs 21% PV
Libertarians: Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)/ Justin Amash (R-MI) 0 EVs 10.5% PV
There was brutal infighting within both parties as Trumps scandals worsen (he is impeached over obstruction of justice after Democrats take the house in 2018 and is acquitted by a two vote margin) , the AHCA passes and result in an even larger increase in premiums and millions unable to afford coverage, the economy slows down to a halt as a recession is pending, Trump invades Iran and Syria, and a divisive primaries result in third party bids. Kasich primaries Trump as a moderate centrist option, and Rand Paul runs as a libertarian leaner and both lost handily to Trump. The Democratic primaries begin with 20 candidates which later ends as a contest Bernie and Booker after Super Tuesday. Bernie represents the progressive wing and the WWC while Booker goes after black and brown voters. Bernie ends with with a small delegate lead, but Booker's Super PACs bribe most superdelegates and delegates of states won by other candidates. Booker wins the Democratic nomination on the second round of voting, and Bernie storms out of the convention hall and announces his bid for the White House the following morning. The general election campaigns are brutal, but satisfying for voters as 40 million adults register to vote for the first time as people realize that there will be no wasted votes in any state this election. Trump enters the general election with a 19% approval rating due to the large casualties in his incompetently fought wars and orders the troops to shoot thousands of protesters during the Labor Day anti-war protests of 2020 across America in which 20 million Americans participated in as well as continued turmoil in Congress, and race relations continue to spiral out of control. The biggest surprise on election day was when Trump reached 4th place in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives must choose between Booker, Sanders, and Kasich. Congressional Democrats split between Booker and Sanders while Kasich narrowly wins with the hesitant support of most Republicans as some far-right Republicans abstain from voting. Kasich is later inaugurated and must re-unify the country as he pledges to work with the Democratic controlled congress to combat the collapsing economy and end the wars.

What a fascinating, morbid, but plausible story. I can see how Trump's presidency could result in so much turmoil.
I see two things wrong:
1) Maine can't split its EC votes 3 ways like that. Can it? You've got what I presume to be ME-01 voting by a plurality for Sanders/Gabbard, ME-02 voting by a plurality for Trump/Pence, but ME-AL voting by a plurality for Kasich/Hickenlooper? That does not make sense.
2) I can only county 117 EC votes for Sanders/Hickenlooper, but 121 EC votes for Kasich/Hickenlooper. If PA were light green instead of light yellow, then your numbers would be correct.

Sure Maine can.

ME-1:
Sanders/Gabbard: 25%
Kasich/Hickenlooper: 24%
Trump/Pence: 20%

ME-2:
Trump/Pence: 25%
Kasich/Hickenlooper: 24%
Sanders/Gabbard: 20%

With that result, Kasich/Hickenlooper wins the state with 24% of the vote.

[Kingpoleon]

1) Maine can't split its EC votes 3 ways like that. Can it? You've got what I presume to be ME-01 voting by a plurality for Sanders/Gabbard, ME-02 voting by a plurality for Trump/Pence, but ME-AL voting by a plurality for Kasich/Hickenlooper? That does not make sense.

It's mathematically possible, albeit very unlikely.  Imagine this scenario, for example:

CD1:
Sanders 36%
Kasich 34%
Trump 30%

CD2:
Trump 36%
Kasich 34%
Sanders 30%

You can then average the two CDs to get a rough estimate of the statewide totals, which would be:
Kasich 34%
Sanders 33%
Trump 33%

So Kasich wins statewide, despite coming in second in both CDs.

No joke I thought this wasn't possible.  Thank you for proving this to me lol.

I thought I explained it, too.

[Kingpoleon]

I can't see the underlying premise of an Independent Kasich campaign.

I can see the underlying premise of a Kasich challenge to Trump.  Kasich has always been a Republican; he was part of the House Republican Leadership when they moved into the majority in 1994, and was a viable Presidential candidate in 2000, after which he became a part of the FOX News stable with his show "Heartland".

I agree that it makes more sense for Kasich to challenge Trump in the primary than to run as an independent.  My hunch, though, is that his teasing the possibility of leaving the party is actually a precursor to him ditching the party once Trump is renominated: Kasich runs in the 2020 GOP primary, but loses to Trump.  And then once he loses, he once again refuses to endorse Trump in the general election, but this time says that he's leaving the GOP altogether, because there's no place for him in a Trump-ified GOP.  He'll no longer be governor of Ohio at this point, so he'll be free to just follow his conscience, wherever it takes him.

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I think the right Republican primary challenger to Trump could get a decent amount of support from certain right-of-center pundits (like Bill Kristol and Erick Erickson), as well as now-retired Republican politicians like Mitt Romney (if he doesn't run for Senate) and Jeb Bush.  But I would be very surprised if very many *current* Republican politicians end up endorsing Kasich or any other potential primary challenger.  I guess it might happen, but endorsing a primary challenge to your party's incumbent president?  That seems like a big line to cross, and my gut says few will want to do it.  Much more common will be Republican politicians who remain neutral in the primaries, but then endorse the nominee in the general election.

As far as a primary challenger who is actually able to get a decent amount of support among regular Republican primary voters as opposed to elites....I'm not sure how much difference it makes who it is, as people might just see it as an anti-Trump protest vote, and they'll vote for the person or not depending on their opinion of Trump.  But to the extent that it does matter, I actually think Kasich would probably be a dud.  He seems determined to attack Trump from Trump's left on everything, and there just aren't that many "moderates" in the party today.  I think an Amash or a Paul might have a higher ceiling in a primary challenge to Trump, because they can attack Trump for the right and the center at the same time.

Even Ted Cruz admits that moderate Republicans are not an endangered species amongst the voters.