Wapo: New Study on seattle minimum wage is bad news for liberals
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  Wapo: New Study on seattle minimum wage is bad news for liberals
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Author Topic: Wapo: New Study on seattle minimum wage is bad news for liberals  (Read 1903 times)
vanguard96
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« Reply #25 on: June 28, 2017, 09:33:57 AM »

The federal government should subsidize the minimum wage increase to $12 - $15 so it doesn't hurt small businesses or cut jobs.

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Why not $20 or 30?
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #26 on: June 29, 2017, 03:19:03 PM »

I'd been meaning to respond to this, but Seattle's minimum wage hike is a demonstration that minimum wage hikes by fiat is usually not a good idea. The last minimum wage hike hurt younger workers and teenagers. I should also point out only 5% of Americans work on the minimum wage and it's far better to create economic pressure on wages via other measures (through better education, through better infrastructure).

Ideally, we would repeal the minimum wage but devote more attention to pushing measures that would actually create economic forces to push wages up. I'm thinking community colleges, trade schools, better infrastructure for rural areas.
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MarkD
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« Reply #27 on: June 29, 2017, 05:18:10 PM »

The federal government should subsidize the minimum wage increase to $12 - $15 so it doesn't hurt small businesses or cut jobs.

Solved.

Why not $20 or 30?

Or $75?
We're going to get there someday, so we might as well get there sooner rather than later. And apparently there are never, ever any negative consequences to raising the minimum wage.

Ninety-four years ago, the SCOTUS handled a case called Adkins v. Children's Hospital. It was a legal challenge to a minimum wage law adopted in Washington D.C. One of the parties who challenged the law was a 21-year-old woman who had a job as an elevator operator at a hotel. It was her testimony in court that she liked her job just fine the way it was, she did not need to earn any more than what the hotel was paying her, that she did not have a set of job skills that would enable her to get any other job, but she would lose her job because of the new minimum wage law -- the hotel decided that paying her the higher amount would not be worth the labor she was performing, so they would simply do without an elevator operator. She argued to the courts that she has a right to keep a job in which she and her employer mutually agreed to the terms of her employment. The SCOTUS agreed with her, saying that the law violates the "freedom of contract" between employees, like this woman, and their employers.

The SCOTUS struck down three more minimum wage laws during the next 13 years, until finally the Court overturned the precedents in 1937, West Coast Hotel Co. v. Parish.

Of course minimum wage laws eliminate jobs. They always have and they always will.
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dead0man
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« Reply #28 on: August 02, 2017, 04:42:55 PM »

Also, can't two different study methodologies (both reasonable in their own right) just produce different results?  Below the author of the Berkley study critiques the UW methodology.  Though I'm sure both could agree to disagree.

http://irle.berkeley.edu/files/2017/Reich-letter-to-Robert-Feldstein.pdf

I think I once remember reading a quote that was something like "You can get an economist to find any conclusion you like".  I'm sure there are so many conservative groups out there that could sponsor a study that shows Seattle is doomed. 

University academic studies produce conflicting results all the time.  It's kind of hard to make clear cut determinations of which one is "right" and which is "wrong".

yeah....about that...
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #29 on: August 02, 2017, 05:20:34 PM »

Also, can't two different study methodologies (both reasonable in their own right) just produce different results?  Below the author of the Berkley study critiques the UW methodology.  Though I'm sure both could agree to disagree.

http://irle.berkeley.edu/files/2017/Reich-letter-to-Robert-Feldstein.pdf

I think I once remember reading a quote that was something like "You can get an economist to find any conclusion you like".  I'm sure there are so many conservative groups out there that could sponsor a study that shows Seattle is doomed. 

University academic studies produce conflicting results all the time.  It's kind of hard to make clear cut determinations of which one is "right" and which is "wrong".

yeah....about that...
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We cant let meaningless things like facts disrupt progress.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #30 on: August 02, 2017, 06:29:30 PM »

Also, can't two different study methodologies (both reasonable in their own right) just produce different results?  Below the author of the Berkley study critiques the UW methodology.  Though I'm sure both could agree to disagree.

http://irle.berkeley.edu/files/2017/Reich-letter-to-Robert-Feldstein.pdf

I think I once remember reading a quote that was something like "You can get an economist to find any conclusion you like".  I'm sure there are so many conservative groups out there that could sponsor a study that shows Seattle is doomed. 

University academic studies produce conflicting results all the time.  It's kind of hard to make clear cut determinations of which one is "right" and which is "wrong".

yeah....about that...
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Christ. That's exactly the kind of step-on-rake nonsense that makes me glad Murray isn't running again
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #31 on: August 02, 2017, 06:39:36 PM »
« Edited: August 02, 2017, 06:48:17 PM by TheDeadFlagBlues »

I see a lot of discussion regarding the politics of this study and little discussion of the study itself - which is clearly flawed for reasons pointed out by Arindrajit Dube in an Upshot article. Is it possible for a "synthetic control" to be constructed when Seattle is experiencing unprecedented economic growth such that quarterly earnings per worker have increased by 20% since 2014? There's no such synthetic control in existence nor could one be constructed. The fact that when one looks at increases in employment for positions that pay up to 40 dollars an hour, there was substantial/sustained increases in all categories suggest that this study is flawed.

It's not as if economists have not studied this subject before. There are so many studies conducted on the minimum wage that a well-done meta-analysis would contain dozens of such studies. These can easily be found online - none show anywhere close to what this Seattle study shows in terms of the relationship between job loss and unemployment. "Occam's razor" suggests that the astonishing finding stems from the fact that many service employees are being paid more than the cutoff shown by the authors - this strikes me as being credible and is aligned with anecdotal experience from Seattle and the Silicon Valley.

Opponents of the movement to use the minimum wage as a social policy tool to combat poverty can rely on this study if they like - it's the only one they possess. There have been dozens of similar studies and there's a mountain of evidence from the past that suggests that the trade-offs make increasing the minimum wage worthwhile if other measures aren't feasible. More studies will be conducted in the future and in locations that aren't as unrepresentative of the country - meaning that even "synthetic control" methods are rendered useless - as Seattle. If you want to learn from a policy experiment, Seattle is your worst bet...

edit: obviously, economics is important because we like to compare "like cases to like cases" to see the effect of some action such that we can evaluate the value/merit of that action. That said, if one wants to see Seattle as some sort of horror story or if one wants to promote it as a boogeyman, one must realize that Seattle's economy is booming, that people throughout the Northwest, the US and the country are flocking there. This UW study isn't going to persuade anyone outside of the hard right against the merits of increasing the minimum wage...
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