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Author Topic: Wapo: New Study on seattle minimum wage is bad news for liberals  (Read 953 times)
marty
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« on: June 27, 2017, 01:18:39 pm »
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/06/26/new-study-casts-doubt-on-whether-a-15-minimum-wage-really-helps-workers/?utm_term=.46e91741ffcb

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The city is gradually increasing the hourly minimum to $15 over several years. Already, though, some employers have not been able to afford the increased minimums. They've cut their payrolls, putting off new hiring, reducing hours or letting their workers go, the study found.

The costs to low-wage workers in Seattle outweighed the benefits by a ratio of three to one, according to the study, conducted by a group of economists at the University of Washington who were commissioned by the city.

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On the whole, the study estimates, the average low-wage worker in the city lost $125 a month because of the hike in the minimum.
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #1 on: June 27, 2017, 01:33:59 pm »
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Muh demand creates jobs.
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King Jellybean
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« Reply #2 on: June 27, 2017, 01:38:58 pm »
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Didn't  this study basically a "control" out of its ass?
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« Reply #3 on: June 27, 2017, 01:42:09 pm »
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Then again, our unemployment rate is 2.9% so... Į\_(ツ)_/Į
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« Reply #4 on: June 27, 2017, 01:47:10 pm »
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Actually, the study found something that should interest liberals greatly. Though, it hasn't even been peer reviewed yet.



So the study concludes that the rise in the minimum wage ended up creating more higher wage jobs.
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #5 on: June 27, 2017, 01:48:06 pm »
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Why is "very credible" in quotes?
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marty
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« Reply #6 on: June 27, 2017, 01:50:40 pm »
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Ummm, that is NOT what the study concluded.

First off, why would the government mandating wages be 13/hour cause an employer to increase it even more?

Here is the 538 blog succinctly putting it.

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The average low-wage employee, they found, saw his or her monthly paycheck shrink by $125, or 6.6 percent.




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The average low-wage employee, they found, saw his or her monthly paycheck shrink by $125, or 6.6 percent.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #7 on: June 27, 2017, 01:55:46 pm »
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Actually, the study found something that should interest liberals greatly. Though, it hasn't even been peer reviewed yet.



So the study concludes that the rise in the minimum wage ended up creating more higher wage jobs.

This is good news objectively, but does little to help low-skilled workers $15 minimums are supposed to help. (I'm agnostic on the matter personally. Think it's a wash either way)
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #8 on: June 27, 2017, 02:08:29 pm »
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lol
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #9 on: June 27, 2017, 03:03:11 pm »
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Here's a breakdown of Seattle's unemployed population:



Those demographics don't fit the narrative of young inexperienced workers being unable to find work because of the minimum wage requirements.
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RI
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« Reply #10 on: June 27, 2017, 03:05:46 pm »
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Didn't  this study basically a "control" out of its ass?

That's how synthetic controls work. It's a pretty common and recognized method for studying discrete policy changes. The methodology is pretty solid.
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King Jellybean
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« Reply #11 on: June 27, 2017, 03:30:00 pm »
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Didn't  this study basically a "control" out of its ass?

That's how synthetic controls work. It's a pretty common and recognized method for studying discrete policy changes. The methodology is pretty solid.

But is there a Seattle in Seattle? They couldn't have done San Fransico?

Anyways, it would be interesting to see how this automates low wage industries and how that effects employment in technology and how it effects undercapitalized entrapanuers. Would productivity go up if undercapitalized business owners became employees that had similar compensation?
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13 Then people brought little children to him, for him to lay his hands on them and pray. The disciples scolded them,

14 but Jesus said, 'Let the little children alone, and do not stop them from coming to me; for it is to such as these that the kingdom of Heaven belongs.'

15 Then he laid his hands on them and went on his way.
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« Reply #12 on: June 27, 2017, 03:31:43 pm »
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The federal government should subsidize the minimum wage increase to $12 - $15 so it doesn't hurt small businesses or cut jobs.

Solved.
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RI
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« Reply #13 on: June 27, 2017, 03:33:12 pm »
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The federal government should subsidize the minimum wage increase to $12 - $15 so it doesn't hurt small businesses or cut jobs like this.

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Or we could just scrap the minimum wage and implement an NIT. It would be far more efficient and solve the same problem.
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King Jellybean
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« Reply #14 on: June 27, 2017, 03:36:16 pm »
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The federal government should subsidize the minimum wage increase to $12 - $15 so it doesn't hurt small businesses or cut jobs like this.

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Or we could just scrap the minimum wage and implement an NIT. It would be far more efficient and solve the same problem.

NIT?
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13 Then people brought little children to him, for him to lay his hands on them and pray. The disciples scolded them,

14 but Jesus said, 'Let the little children alone, and do not stop them from coming to me; for it is to such as these that the kingdom of Heaven belongs.'

15 Then he laid his hands on them and went on his way.
RI
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« Reply #15 on: June 27, 2017, 03:37:14 pm »
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The federal government should subsidize the minimum wage increase to $12 - $15 so it doesn't hurt small businesses or cut jobs like this.

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Or we could just scrap the minimum wage and implement an NIT. It would be far more efficient and solve the same problem.

NIT?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_income_tax
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King Jellybean
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« Reply #16 on: June 27, 2017, 03:48:38 pm »
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The federal government should subsidize the minimum wage increase to $12 - $15 so it doesn't hurt small businesses or cut jobs like this.

Solved

Or we could just scrap the minimum wage and implement an NIT. It would be far more efficient and solve the same problem.

NIT?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_income_tax

Isn't that just welfare?
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13 Then people brought little children to him, for him to lay his hands on them and pray. The disciples scolded them,

14 but Jesus said, 'Let the little children alone, and do not stop them from coming to me; for it is to such as these that the kingdom of Heaven belongs.'

15 Then he laid his hands on them and went on his way.
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« Reply #17 on: June 27, 2017, 04:05:42 pm »
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It is my opinion that the King County Minimum Wage Ordinance was completely irrelevant for almost the entire population of Seattle, Washington and surrounding areas within King County, Washington.    

First, the vast majority of employers would not have had to cut jobs, because employees already receive salaries that exceed the minimum wage/compensation guidelines in the new ordinance. When you take a look at the average salaries provided to employees in each industry, and even the employees earning salaries in the 25th percentile of employees in a particular job, you'll notice that all jobs/positions paid above minimum wages in 2013. Thus, an increase in minimum wage would not have any effect on the vast majority of people.  

Second, employers could count tips in calculating salaries, so small business (<500), where tips to employees are prevalent (restaurants), would not have had to increase salaries if Employees could make $13 an hour with tips.  As of 2017, a small business employer in Seattle is only obligated to a minimum wage of $11.00, but must pay a total compensation of $13.00 to employees.  Eventually all employers will have to pay $15.00 an hour, but the interesting part of the analysis is when salaries increase based on the consumer-price index (CPI) for Seattle area.  

Third, unemployment has decreased throughout the United States.  Both the United States and the Seattle area saw .08% decrease in unemployment from April 2016 to April 2017.  

We need to see what happens in a several years from now when all businesses are paying >$15 per hour.  
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AverroŽs
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« Reply #18 on: June 27, 2017, 04:29:30 pm »
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The impression that I get from this report is that Seattle has been gentrifying so rapidly that its minimum wage law probably has not mattered much at all. It's a place that his increasingly limited room for minimum wage work and the people who do those job.

These findings would not be especially generalizable even if this were showing an obvious and smashing success for the minimum wage increase. Which success, arguably, this does show - i.e. high-wage jobs displaced low-wage jobs, albeit mostly for totally different reasons.

What we should be interested in asking, because it's less is obvious is how would a minimum wage increase affect a place that lacks a growing economy, that lacks high-end services, or that lacks a highly educated workforce? How would it affect a place on that is on the periphery of the national economy?

(Either way, reducing both employee- and employer-side payroll taxes on low-wage employment would be a better way to put more money in the pockets of the working power without making it more expensive to employ them.)
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« Reply #19 on: June 27, 2017, 11:19:08 pm »
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The impression that I get from this report is that Seattle has been gentrifying so rapidly that its minimum wage law probably has not mattered much at all. It's a place that his increasingly limited room for minimum wage work and the people who do those job.

These findings would not be especially generalizable even if this were showing an obvious and smashing success for the minimum wage increase. Which success, arguably, this does show - i.e. high-wage jobs displaced low-wage jobs, albeit mostly for totally different reasons.

What we should be interested in asking, because it's less is obvious is how would a minimum wage increase affect a place that lacks a growing economy, that lacks high-end services, or that lacks a highly educated workforce? How would it affect a place on that is on the periphery of the national economy?

(Either way, reducing both employee- and employer-side payroll taxes on low-wage employment would be a better way to put more money in the pockets of the working power without making it more expensive to employ them.)

Yes!
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« Reply #20 on: June 28, 2017, 12:05:43 am »
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Also, can't two different study methodologies (both reasonable in their own right) just produce different results?  Below the author of the Berkley study critiques the UW methodology.  Though I'm sure both could agree to disagree.

http://irle.berkeley.edu/files/2017/Reich-letter-to-Robert-Feldstein.pdf

I think I once remember reading a quote that was something like "You can get an economist to find any conclusion you like".  I'm sure there are so many conservative groups out there that could sponsor a study that shows Seattle is doomed.  

University academic studies produce conflicting results all the time.  It's kind of hard to make clear cut determinations of which one is "right" and which is "wrong".
« Last Edit: June 28, 2017, 12:09:31 am by NRS11 »Logged
Jacobin American
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« Reply #21 on: June 28, 2017, 12:50:32 am »
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The impression that I get from this report is that Seattle has been gentrifying so rapidly that its minimum wage law probably has not mattered much at all. It's a place that his increasingly limited room for minimum wage work and the people who do those job.

These findings would not be especially generalizable even if this were showing an obvious and smashing success for the minimum wage increase. Which success, arguably, this does show - i.e. high-wage jobs displaced low-wage jobs, albeit mostly for totally different reasons.

What we should be interested in asking, because it's less is obvious is how would a minimum wage increase affect a place that lacks a growing economy, that lacks high-end services, or that lacks a highly educated workforce? How would it affect a place on that is on the periphery of the national economy?

(Either way, reducing both employee- and employer-side payroll taxes on low-wage employment would be a better way to put more money in the pockets of the working power without making it more expensive to employ them.)

Yes!
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« Reply #22 on: June 28, 2017, 04:13:26 am »
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Actually, the study found something that should interest liberals greatly. Though, it hasn't even been peer reviewed yet.



So the study concludes that the rise in the minimum wage ended up creating more higher wage jobs.

This is good news objectively, but does little to help low-skilled workers $15 minimums are supposed to help. (I'm agnostic on the matter personally. Think it's a wash either way)

It is not peer reviewed & I don't why it should even be discussed. Forget the good aspects,non-peer reviewed studies are largely considered junk in the academic world! This isn't credible by any standards !

Edit - Also unsurprisingly WaPo posts this. Jeff Bezos who owns Amazon has a huge share of minimum wage workers in warehouses & what not. What a clear conflict of interest in pushing through a non-peer reviewed study as a "Very Credible new" study !
« Last Edit: June 28, 2017, 04:14:59 am by Shadows »Logged

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« Reply #23 on: June 28, 2017, 04:44:27 am »
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Also, can't two different study methodologies (both reasonable in their own right) just produce different results?  Below the author of the Berkley study critiques the UW methodology.  Though I'm sure both could agree to disagree.

http://irle.berkeley.edu/files/2017/Reich-letter-to-Robert-Feldstein.pdf

I think I once remember reading a quote that was something like "You can get an economist to find any conclusion you like".  I'm sure there are so many conservative groups out there that could sponsor a study that shows Seattle is doomed.  

University academic studies produce conflicting results all the time.  It's kind of hard to make clear cut determinations of which one is "right" and which is "wrong".


I don't know the details of either of these studies, but in general in economics a great deal of the equations depend on the assumptions behind the numbers.  I've linked here before to the CBC Radio program Ideas' It's the Economists, Stupid which discussed this with left leaning Australian economist Richard Denniss and he said something like "Many times when an economist - especially one with an ideological agenda - tells you that his the numbers in the equations are 'best guesses' what they really mean is 'we made the numbers up.'"

Edit:  CBC usually takes episodes of their radio programs down after awhile, so I assumed it was no longer available, but here it is: http://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/it-s-the-economists-stupid-1.3219471

It says the episode first aired in September of 2015 and I heard it sometimes in early 2016, so this was, at least, the third airing of this program.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2017, 04:50:35 am by Adam T »Logged



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« Reply #24 on: June 28, 2017, 04:54:22 am »
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Coming from a country that has a minimum wage of 13.83 USD, I find it laughable that the US is still having an argument over whether a high min wage is a good thing...
(Hint, it is.)
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