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| | |-+  Wapo: New Study on seattle minimum wage is bad news for liberals
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Author Topic: Wapo: New Study on seattle minimum wage is bad news for liberals  (Read 950 times)
RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #25 on: June 28, 2017, 09:01:22 am »
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Christ, there's a lot of ignorance of academic economics is this thread.

It is not peer reviewed & I don't why it should even be discussed. Forget the good aspects,non-peer reviewed studies are largely considered junk in the academic world!

This is so incredibly wrong it makes my head hurt. Working papers (especially NBER working papers, which this was) are the most commonly discussed and covered type of economic paper, mostly due to the fact that they tend to be very high quality and publishing in economics takes forever. From the time a paper is done being written to publication can take years in economics; journals take forever even on the most basic desk rejection. Econ working papers are often better than the published versions of the same paper and receive more citations. Further, econ isn't the only field where working papers are the lingua franca; math and many of the hard sciences use extensive commenting on working papers through arXiv and the like.

Also, can't two different study methodologies (both reasonable in their own right) just produce different results?  Below the author of the Berkley study critiques the UW methodology.  Though I'm sure both could agree to disagree.

http://irle.berkeley.edu/files/2017/Reich-letter-to-Robert-Feldstein.pdf

I think I once remember reading a quote that was something like "You can get an economist to find any conclusion you like".  I'm sure there are so many conservative groups out there that could sponsor a study that shows Seattle is doomed.  

University academic studies produce conflicting results all the time.  It's kind of hard to make clear cut determinations of which one is "right" and which is "wrong".

The UW paper is clearly superior to the Berkeley paper given that UW replicated Berkeley's results and then showed why they painted an incomplete picture of the situation. UW simply had better data than Berkeley; their methodologies were barely any different! Berkeley's hemming and hawing is the academic equivalent of being a sore loser.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2017, 09:38:38 am by RI »Logged
vanguard96
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« Reply #26 on: June 28, 2017, 09:33:57 am »
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The federal government should subsidize the minimum wage increase to $12 - $15 so it doesn't hurt small businesses or cut jobs.

Solved.

Why not $20 or 30?
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #27 on: June 29, 2017, 03:19:03 pm »
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I'd been meaning to respond to this, but Seattle's minimum wage hike is a demonstration that minimum wage hikes by fiat is usually not a good idea. The last minimum wage hike hurt younger workers and teenagers. I should also point out only 5% of Americans work on the minimum wage and it's far better to create economic pressure on wages via other measures (through better education, through better infrastructure).

Ideally, we would repeal the minimum wage but devote more attention to pushing measures that would actually create economic forces to push wages up. I'm thinking community colleges, trade schools, better infrastructure for rural areas.
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« Reply #28 on: June 29, 2017, 05:18:10 pm »
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The federal government should subsidize the minimum wage increase to $12 - $15 so it doesn't hurt small businesses or cut jobs.

Solved.

Why not $20 or 30?

Or $75?
We're going to get there someday, so we might as well get there sooner rather than later. And apparently there are never, ever any negative consequences to raising the minimum wage.

Ninety-four years ago, the SCOTUS handled a case called Adkins v. Children's Hospital. It was a legal challenge to a minimum wage law adopted in Washington D.C. One of the parties who challenged the law was a 21-year-old woman who had a job as an elevator operator at a hotel. It was her testimony in court that she liked her job just fine the way it was, she did not need to earn any more than what the hotel was paying her, that she did not have a set of job skills that would enable her to get any other job, but she would lose her job because of the new minimum wage law -- the hotel decided that paying her the higher amount would not be worth the labor she was performing, so they would simply do without an elevator operator. She argued to the courts that she has a right to keep a job in which she and her employer mutually agreed to the terms of her employment. The SCOTUS agreed with her, saying that the law violates the "freedom of contract" between employees, like this woman, and their employers.

The SCOTUS struck down three more minimum wage laws during the next 13 years, until finally the Court overturned the precedents in 1937, West Coast Hotel Co. v. Parish.

Of course minimum wage laws eliminate jobs. They always have and they always will.
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States should have clear guidelines what laws they cannot pass, and the federal courts should have far less discretion in choosing what laws to strike down. Take away from the federal courts the power to define liberty and the power to define equality. Those are legislative powers and should be in the hands of legislators. Rewrite Section 1 of the 14th to make its meaning narrower and clearer.
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« Reply #29 on: August 02, 2017, 04:42:55 pm »
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Also, can't two different study methodologies (both reasonable in their own right) just produce different results?  Below the author of the Berkley study critiques the UW methodology.  Though I'm sure both could agree to disagree.

http://irle.berkeley.edu/files/2017/Reich-letter-to-Robert-Feldstein.pdf

I think I once remember reading a quote that was something like "You can get an economist to find any conclusion you like".  I'm sure there are so many conservative groups out there that could sponsor a study that shows Seattle is doomed. 

University academic studies produce conflicting results all the time.  It's kind of hard to make clear cut determinations of which one is "right" and which is "wrong".

yeah....about that...
Quote
The evidence is in, and it's not pretty.

This week, the City of Seattle provided a tranche of email records that my organization requested, related to its pro-$15 coordination with a research team at the University of California-Berkeley. (The back-story, for those who are not acquainted with the controversy over a University of Washington report on the city's $15 minimum wage experiment, is available here.)

<snip>

Takeaways from the email trail include:

  • The Seattle Mayor's Office requested that Berkeley omit any mention of the forthcoming University of Washington report from its write-up.
  • The press release for the Berkeley study was written by the same PR firm (and same PR executive) used by the Fight for $15.
  • Michael Reich and the Berkeley team rushed their work to meet a political timeline set by the Mayor's office.
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They say here "all roads lead to Mishnory." To be sure, if you turn your back on Mishnory and walk away from it, you are still on the Mishnory road. To oppose vulgarity is inevitably to be vulgar. You must go somewhere else; you must have another goal; then you walk in a different road.”
― Ursula K. Le Guin, The Left Hand of Darkness
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« Reply #30 on: August 02, 2017, 05:20:34 pm »
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Also, can't two different study methodologies (both reasonable in their own right) just produce different results?  Below the author of the Berkley study critiques the UW methodology.  Though I'm sure both could agree to disagree.

http://irle.berkeley.edu/files/2017/Reich-letter-to-Robert-Feldstein.pdf

I think I once remember reading a quote that was something like "You can get an economist to find any conclusion you like".  I'm sure there are so many conservative groups out there that could sponsor a study that shows Seattle is doomed. 

University academic studies produce conflicting results all the time.  It's kind of hard to make clear cut determinations of which one is "right" and which is "wrong".

yeah....about that...
Quote
The evidence is in, and it's not pretty.

This week, the City of Seattle provided a tranche of email records that my organization requested, related to its pro-$15 coordination with a research team at the University of California-Berkeley. (The back-story, for those who are not acquainted with the controversy over a University of Washington report on the city's $15 minimum wage experiment, is available here.)

<snip>

Takeaways from the email trail include:

  • The Seattle Mayor's Office requested that Berkeley omit any mention of the forthcoming University of Washington report from its write-up.
  • The press release for the Berkeley study was written by the same PR firm (and same PR executive) used by the Fight for $15.
  • Michael Reich and the Berkeley team rushed their work to meet a political timeline set by the Mayor's office.

We cant let meaningless things like facts disrupt progress.
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I was not anticipating Mr. Reactionary to introduce 55 pieces of legislation in the South over the past week, which is negating the rise in unemployment that should result from Irma.

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KingSweden
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« Reply #31 on: August 02, 2017, 06:29:30 pm »
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Also, can't two different study methodologies (both reasonable in their own right) just produce different results?  Below the author of the Berkley study critiques the UW methodology.  Though I'm sure both could agree to disagree.

http://irle.berkeley.edu/files/2017/Reich-letter-to-Robert-Feldstein.pdf

I think I once remember reading a quote that was something like "You can get an economist to find any conclusion you like".  I'm sure there are so many conservative groups out there that could sponsor a study that shows Seattle is doomed. 

University academic studies produce conflicting results all the time.  It's kind of hard to make clear cut determinations of which one is "right" and which is "wrong".

yeah....about that...
Quote
The evidence is in, and it's not pretty.

This week, the City of Seattle provided a tranche of email records that my organization requested, related to its pro-$15 coordination with a research team at the University of California-Berkeley. (The back-story, for those who are not acquainted with the controversy over a University of Washington report on the city's $15 minimum wage experiment, is available here.)

<snip>

Takeaways from the email trail include:

  • The Seattle Mayor's Office requested that Berkeley omit any mention of the forthcoming University of Washington report from its write-up.
  • The press release for the Berkeley study was written by the same PR firm (and same PR executive) used by the Fight for $15.
  • Michael Reich and the Berkeley team rushed their work to meet a political timeline set by the Mayor's office.
[/quote


Christ. That's exactly the kind of step-on-rake nonsense that makes me glad Murray isn't running again
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #32 on: August 02, 2017, 06:39:36 pm »
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I see a lot of discussion regarding the politics of this study and little discussion of the study itself - which is clearly flawed for reasons pointed out by Arindrajit Dube in an Upshot article. Is it possible for a "synthetic control" to be constructed when Seattle is experiencing unprecedented economic growth such that quarterly earnings per worker have increased by 20% since 2014? There's no such synthetic control in existence nor could one be constructed. The fact that when one looks at increases in employment for positions that pay up to 40 dollars an hour, there was substantial/sustained increases in all categories suggest that this study is flawed.

It's not as if economists have not studied this subject before. There are so many studies conducted on the minimum wage that a well-done meta-analysis would contain dozens of such studies. These can easily be found online - none show anywhere close to what this Seattle study shows in terms of the relationship between job loss and unemployment. "Occam's razor" suggests that the astonishing finding stems from the fact that many service employees are being paid more than the cutoff shown by the authors - this strikes me as being credible and is aligned with anecdotal experience from Seattle and the Silicon Valley.

Opponents of the movement to use the minimum wage as a social policy tool to combat poverty can rely on this study if they like - it's the only one they possess. There have been dozens of similar studies and there's a mountain of evidence from the past that suggests that the trade-offs make increasing the minimum wage worthwhile if other measures aren't feasible. More studies will be conducted in the future and in locations that aren't as unrepresentative of the country - meaning that even "synthetic control" methods are rendered useless - as Seattle. If you want to learn from a policy experiment, Seattle is your worst bet...

edit: obviously, economics is important because we like to compare "like cases to like cases" to see the effect of some action such that we can evaluate the value/merit of that action. That said, if one wants to see Seattle as some sort of horror story or if one wants to promote it as a boogeyman, one must realize that Seattle's economy is booming, that people throughout the Northwest, the US and the country are flocking there. This UW study isn't going to persuade anyone outside of the hard right against the merits of increasing the minimum wage...
« Last Edit: August 02, 2017, 06:48:17 pm by TheDeadFlagBlues »Logged



"In this historic hour, we solemnly pledge ourselves to the principles of humanity and justice, of freedom and socialism. No Executive Order gives you the power to destroy ideas that are eternal and indestructible."
-Otto Wels Enabling Act speech, paraphrased
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