MA-WBUR: Baker holds wide leads over all Democrats

[McGovernForPrez]

Is Joe Kennedy III at all interested in running?

I think he'd be more likely to run for Senate once Markey retires (which could possibly be as early as 2020 considering his age, as he'd be 73 in 2020 and nearly eighty at the end of his second term) plus would give Massachusetts the possibility of having a long serving senator a la Ted.

I believe I've heard from other Dems in the state who have met him, that he's likely to actually go for Lizzie's seat. That way he can hold the ancestral Kennedy seat in Massachusetts.

As for the governors's seat, I think it's safe to call this seat Likely R. Anybody thinking this is Safe R doesn't realize the floor that MA Dems have in these races. Democrats probably have a a floor of about 40 percent in this race. The circumstances for a Bill Weld style obliteration aren't there. When Bill Weld had ran Massachusetts held actual Republican House seats, had a strong challenger for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat, and was running in a landslide Republican election. Massachusetts hasn't had Republican house members since 1996, and this time there is the national mood trends strongly towards Democrats. With Elizabeth Warren also on the ballot, set to have no real challenger, coattails might end up doing Baker in. Point being Safe R doesn't exist in Massachusetts anymore.

[McGovernForPrez]

Any chance a conservative Independent candidate runs and gains traction?

The Trump comparisons will be way too large to overcome. MA conservatives will be happy to have any Republican in office. Baker is too popular for a non-Democrat to even consider wasting their time with a run.

[McGovernForPrez]

Any chance a conservative Independent candidate runs and gains traction?

The Trump comparisons will be way too large to overcome. MA conservatives will be happy to have any Republican in office. Baker is too popular for a non-Democrat to even consider wasting their time with a run.

An independent conservative may be the only way a Democrat can defeat Baker.

Democrats have their work cut out for them trying to defeat Baker, but it won't be due to an independent conservative run. The only way Democrats can defeat Baker is by channeling their anti-Trump energy. Progressive energy in MA is at a fever pitch. The Democratic nominee will need to channel that energy. They need to rack up the margins in the greater Boston area and Western Mass. Despite Baker's popularity his type are the first to go in wave election years.

[McGovernForPrez]

Any chance a conservative Independent candidate runs and gains traction?

The Trump comparisons will be way too large to overcome. MA conservatives will be happy to have any Republican in office. Baker is too popular for a non-Democrat to even consider wasting their time with a run.

An independent conservative may be the only way a Democrat can defeat Baker.

Democrats have their work cut out for them trying to defeat Baker, but it won't be due to an independent conservative run. The only way Democrats can defeat Baker is by channeling their anti-Trump energy. Progressive energy in MA is at a fever pitch. The Democratic nominee will need to channel that energy. They need to rack up the margins in the greater Boston area and Western Mass. Despite Baker's popularity his type are the first to go in wave election years.

I might not know Massachusetts politics as you, so correct me if I'm wrong. To me, Charlie Baker looks a lot like where Jodi Rell in Connecticut was before the 2006 election. She had around a 70% approval rating, and was reelected in a landslide. Plus, Conneceticut, like Massachusetts, loves their moderate Republican governors.

MA is not nearly similar to Connecticut in our propensity to elect republicans. Connecticut was considered a Republican stronghold up until 1992. Before the election Connecticut held three Republican House seats, all three of which lost in narrow races. Connecticut still had many vestigial arms of their old republican party back in 2006. If anything a much better comparison could be made between Bill Weld and Jodi Rell than Charlie Baker. The largest complaint I've seen with Baker from people in MA is literally that he calls himself a Republican. I know many people who won't vote for Baker solely on the fact that he identifies himself with the same party as Trump. In polarized politics the first ones to go are the moderates.

[McGovernForPrez]

Honestly the debate around Baker here is a little ridiculous. Most MA Democrats like him. It's easy to like and respect a non batsh**t crazy theocrat. I might vote for him depending on the Democratic nominee. Lot's of Democrats respect him but might not want him in office. The Baker administration has had a challenging past couple of months and people might easily end up wanting a change up. Right now he's trying to push big medicaid cuts and that's making me a little uneasy about reelecting him. The state budgetary crisis is the type of thing people usually vote for Republicans to avoid around here. It's not a good look for his fiscal conservatism.

[McGovernForPrez]

Hey, is that Dukakis still around?

Hell, yeah he is. Teaches at my university. Super chill dude.

[McGovernForPrez]

Hey, is that Dukakis still around?

Hell, yeah he is. Teaches at my university. Super chill dude.

Hypothetically, could he beat the unbeatable Baker?

Hypothetically maybe, but he's honestly just such a kooky old guy now. It seems like his biggest political complaint now is about the new building that's gonna cast a shadow on the Boston Commons during his morning his morning walk.

[McGovernForPrez]

I'm assuming you hope Baker loses with a conservative independent splitting the vite, right, because why else would you ask that? I don't know why you seem to root against blue state Republicans when they're the best that can happen in those states

Nah, I'm fine with all of them (except Sununu, who really needs to go), I just couldn't care less if they lost or not. I'd probably hold my nose and vote for Baker if the race was close and Third Party otherwise. The thing is... these guys can't even do anything about redistricting in their state because the legislature is so overwhelmingly Democratic. Also, I'm generally not a fan of liberal Rockefeller Republicans.

If the race tightens, Republicans shouldn't really waste too much (if any) money here and rather focus on the important races like FL, PA and WI.

What's your problem with Sununu? As a Bay Stater who spends half the year in the Granite State, I'm a big fan of both Charlie and Chris. Both embody the compassionate conservatism of 2000 George W. Bush with the political realities of 2017.

He has this weird dream for NH to be an all blue state for some reason. Thinks it's shifted blue for good.