Germany Legalizes Gay Marriage (June 30, 2017)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Good. If it doesn't happen now, I'd like to see the Greens and FDP push it through after the election.

Oh, it is certainly going to pass now. SPD, Greens, and the Left are all for it and together they currently hold a majority of seats in parliament.

What had prevented it so far was the SPD's unwillingless to break ranks (and thus end the coalition) with the CDU/CSU over the issue. However, this has now changed with Merkel's announcement. Basically, they've have been granted permission by the Chancellor to break ranks.

To elaborate further, Merkel's announcement was a strategic decision on her part. In the past two weeks, SPD, FDP, and Greens had all pledged that they'd only enter a coalition with the CDU/CSU after the election on the condition that gay marriage will be legalized. Merkel then prioritized having a coalition partner over continuing to oppose gay marriage. Considering that she probably never really cared about opposing gay marriage in the first place, it wasn't that hard a decision to make.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The vote will be held this Friday.

SPD, Greens, and the Left will vote for it (320 votes). CSU will vote against it (56 votes). The CDU (253 votes) will probably be split between its conservative and liberal wings.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Because they're taking up the bill that's already been voted on by the Bundesrat, that means once this chamber votes on the bill, it becomes law, right?  (Once the President signs it of course)

Yes, the gay marriage bill which will be voted upon in the Bundestag this Friday was already passed by the Bundesrat in September 2015. Since then, it had been held up in committee.

The full text of the bill can be found her (in German)
http://dip21.bundestag.de/dip21/btd/18/066/1806665.pdf

According to Article 3, subsection 1, the bill takes effect on the first day of the third month after its promulgation (which happens after the president has signed it).

So, the earliest possible date the law would take effect is October 1.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ironically, three of Merkel's most closest allies in the CDU voted for legalizing gay marriage:

Defence minister Ursula von der Leyen, Chief of Staff of the Chancellery Peter Altmaier, and CDU secretary general Peter Tauber.

In the past, there were unconfirmed rumours that Altmaier himself is a closeted gay though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yes and No votes broken up between CDU and CSU. Yes vote among CDU deputies was 27%, among CSU deputies 13%:


CDU
Yes 68
No 179
Abstain 4
Not present 4

CSU
Yes 7
No 46
Abstain 1
Not present 2

[Middle-aged Europe]

Breakdown of Merkel's cabinet:

CDU ministers - Three voted no, two voted yes, one isn't a member of parliament
CSU ministers - All three voted no
SPD ministers - Five voted yes, one isn't a member of parliament

Among the CDU ministers, the "no" votes were interior minister Thomas de Maiziére, finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, and health minister Hermann Gröhe. "Yes" votes were defence minister Ursula von der Leyen, and head of the chancellery Peter Altmaier.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New polls in both Germany and Austria show massive support for gay marriage:

Germany

By party:

CDU/CSU: 73-22 support
SPD: 87-11 support
Greens: 93-5 support
Left: 84-15 support
AfD: 40-55 oppose (odd, because their frontrunner Alice Weidel is lesbian)
FDP: not asked

Alice Weidel is the lead candidate of a party who specifically denounces "attempts to abolish the classic family model" and demands that the government shall promote the idea of a family consisting of a father, a mother, and their children in its election platform, while at the same time Weidel herself raises two children together with her female partner. Go figure.

The AfD's base probably tolerates Weidel because they accept the necessity to have a lead candidate who makes them look less like Nazis.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Former constitutional judge Hans-Jürgen Papier considers gay marriage unconstitutional, as at the times of the passage of the Grundgesetz homosexuality was indictable. Moreover, former adjudgments by the Constitutional Court always saw marriage as a union between a man and a woman.

spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/ehe-fuer-alle-ex-verfassungsrichter-hans-juergen-papier-haelt-sie-fuer-verfassungswidrig-a-1155215.html (in German)

Papier (CSU) doesn't break ranks with his party. News at 11.

[Middle-aged Europe]

^^ I don't think so. It would be highly unusual to poll CSU voters separately.

Anyway, I think its fair to say that the CDU/CSU's voters are more liberal than the CDU/CSU party members or their MPs. So, Angela Merkel is probably more in line with her voters than with her party.

It also seems likely that she voted against gay marriage so that she didn't have to vote against the majority of her own party's MPs.

[Middle-aged Europe]

BTW:

Does anyone have an age-breakdown of MPs from the CDU/CSU that voted in favour and against ? I would assume that the ones who voted YES tend to be younger than the ones voting against.

It's seems you're correct with your assumption with regards to the CDU, but not the CSU.



CDU MPs under 50
Yes 31 (40%)
No 45  (58%)
Abstain 0
Not present 1

CSU MPs under 50
Yes 3 (11%)
No 24  (86%)
Abstain 1
Not present 0


CDU MPs over 50
Yes 36 (21%)
No 133 (76%)
Abstain 3
Not present 2

CSU MPs over 50
Yes 4 (14%)
No 22 (79%)
Abstain 0
Not present 2


http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagsradar-das-sind-ihre-abgeordneten-a-928365.html#abstimmung=21

[Middle-aged Europe]

To narrow the age brackets down even further...


CDU MPs under 40
Yes 12 (50%)
No 12 (50%)
Abstain 0
Not present 0

CSU MPs under 40
Yes 2 (22%)
No 7 (78%)
Abstain 0
Not present 0


CDU MPs over 60
Yes 8 (11%)
No 65 (87%)
Abstain 1
Not present 1

CSU MPs over 60
Yes 2 (11%)
No 14 (78%)
Abstain 0
Not present 2

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gender breakdown


Male CDU MPs
Yes 46 (25%)
No 137 (73%)
Abstain 1
Not present 3

Male CSU MPs
Yes 4 (10%)
No 36 (88%)
Abstain 0
Not present 1


Female CDU MPs
Yes 21 (33%)
No 41 (64%)
Abstain 2
Not present 0

Female CSU MPs
Yes 3 (20%)
No 10 (67%)
Abstain 1
Not present 1

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sad fact: They youngest member of parliament, Ronja Kemmer (28), voted against the bill.

In complete defiance of her age and gender group. Someone wanted to be different.

[Middle-aged Europe]

How did the 35-or-so MPs with a migrant background vote ?

I guess overwhelmingly YES (like the Muslim MPs), because they are mostly from the center-left parties ?

Well, obviously immigrant MPs from SPD, Greens, and Left all voted Yes.


Kai Whittaker (CDU, half-British, age 32): Yes.
Martin Pätzold (CDU, half-Armenian, age 32): Yes.
Cemile Giousouf (CDU, Turkish parents, age 39): Yes.

Alexander Radwan (CSU, half-Egyptian Coptic, age 52): No.
Michaela Noll (CDU, half-Iranian, age 57): No.
Charles M. Huber (CDU, half-Senegalese, age 60): No.
Heinrich Zertik (CDU, born as a member of the German minority in Kazakhstan, age 60): No.
Kees de Vries (CDU, Dutch-born, age 61): No.


I'd say an immigrantion background doesn't really play a role. Age does.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And now the all-important question:

How did the gay and lesbian MPs vote ?

Peter Altmaier (CDU): Yes.
Stefan Kaufmann (CDU): Yes.
Jens Spahn (CDU): Yes.

As I mentioned before, the sexual orientation is unconfirmed in Altmaier's case, since he maintains a "don't ask, don't tell" policy for himself.



Personally, I'd suspect that Alice Weidel doesn't actually believe that gay marriage is unconstitutional, considering that she gives a sh**t about her party's platform in her private life.  She just needs a reason to oppose it as AfD lead candidate, despite being lesbian herself.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Oh, it seems I overlooked one.


Bernd Fabritius, the sole openly homosexual MP from the CSU voted... Yes.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, the seven MPs from the CSU who voted in favour of legalizing gay marriage can be broken down as follows:

Three women, four men... leaving women a bit overrepresented considering they make up only a quarter of their party's delegation in Bundestag.

One of the men is gay himself, two others are younger than 40.

The one who really stands out is Hans Michelbach, aged 68. I'm not really sure what his story is... maybe a close relative in the family who's gay?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is there any noticeable difference between how constituency and list MPs voted(even in general)? I imagine constituency MPs might need to be a bit closer to their constituents' views, seeing as they have a more direct link?

Ugh, too much work to figure that one out.

Considering that many (most?) direct candidates are also list candidates I wouldn't be surprised that it plays not that much of a factor though.