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  "If only Natural Born Citizens were able to vote" Map
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reagente
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« on: June 29, 2017, 04:24:15 pm »
« edited: June 29, 2017, 04:26:44 pm by reagente »

I'm curious if anyone has done a map of the results if only natural-born citizens could vote. At a guess, it looks close to as dominant for Trump as the whites-only map.

I don't know if one of these exists already, but I decided to attempt it.

I used the CCES 2016 study as the starting point for this (since they asked a question about citizenship and immigration status). I used their data to figure out the two-party voteshare for only natural-born citizens (because of the margin of error, I maintained the third-party vote to the percentage from the actual election to reduce some noise that was amplified in small states). Then applied a universal swing to bring the national numbers in line with the CNN exit poll. Obviously with smaller states, there is a greater margin of error with these, but intuitively, it seems to be fairly accurate.



Trump - 335 EV
Clinton - 203 EV




Overall, not as lopsided as I thought. Nevada was the only state that swung to Trump before I added the universal swing to bring the data in line with CNN's numbers. The CCES study doesn't have Trump doing as bad with immigrants as CNN, mainly off of a strong performance among White immigrants.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2017, 04:33:01 pm »

Virginia still stayed dem ?
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reagente
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« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2017, 05:11:36 pm »


According to this data/method, yes.

Colorado and Virginia (both went Clinton by about 5%) had comparable shares of foreign born population, so I'd suspect Virginia's foreign born population skews somewhat more for Trump.

As far as I'm aware, Virginia's immigrant population is a decent bit wealthier than the immigrant population in Colorado, and accordingly likely skews more Republican. Thus, removing them doesn't have as strong an effect. Some statistical noise could be at play here as well.
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Unapologetic Chinaperson
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« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2017, 10:22:44 pm »


I'm more surprised that New Jersey is almost just as Dem as before, given its high Indian-American and Hispanic populations.
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #4 on: January 05, 2018, 03:00:20 am »


I'm more surprised that New Jersey is almost just as Dem as before, given its high Indian-American and Hispanic populations.

1) A significant number of API and Latino Americans in New Jersey are US-born.
2) Trump support among Chinese and Indian immigrants was higher than you'd expect.
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President Griffin
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #5 on: January 05, 2018, 03:07:17 am »

I'm curious about Maine. Maybe it's just noise, but Clinton's margin of victory (2.96 points) expands to 3.9 points among natural born citizens...not that there are many foreign born people in Maine in all likelihood (~3%?), but that'd imply a pretty big difference between the two groups if accurate.
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« Reply #6 on: January 05, 2018, 03:34:36 am »

Figured I'd map it out real quick (difference between total margin and natural-born margin by state):

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