Why did the networks take so long to call Wisconsin?

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Fox News called Wisconsin at 11:30PM. NYT had Trump at a 95%< chance to win Wisconsin by 11:30PM, and CBS had it "edge" Trump by 11:30PM (which is virtually calling it).

But no one else but Fox News would call it til 2:28AM (when CNN called it,  followed shortly by the Associated Press).

But Wisconsin should have been called MUCH sooner. The Clinton campaign kept saying Milwaukee was going to get a dump of votes but when this didn't happen the networks should have started calling Wisconsin right then and there.

All networks and news organizations should have called Wisconsin by 12:30AM. Then the networks should have called Pennsylvania all before 2AM like print media organizations did. So now Clinton is either forced to concede publicly or she still sends Podesta out.

Was it pure denial? Was it them Karl Roving and hoping Clinton still had a chance there and refusing to believe it?

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

Most likely for the ratings.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Most likely for the ratings.

I don't think so, because it seemed like they were desperately looking for a way for Clinton to win it. Reminded me of Karl Rove's Ohio freak out in 2012.

And organizations like the AP and NYT don't have to worry about ratings (and if anything, calling it earlier would have got them more clicks).

If Clinton was ahead they would have called it ASAP.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I hate to say anything that concurs with Trump's claims that the media hates him but yes they were hoping and praying there were some lost votes out there to put Hillary over the top. That night was a mess because a few short hours before there was this feeling that Trump was going to be defeated soundly. They couldn't believe it.

[Liberalrocks]

I hate to say anything that concurs with Trump's claims that the media hates him but yes they were hoping and praying there were some lost votes out there to put Hillary over the top. That night was a mess because a few short hours before there was this feeling that Trump was going to be defeated soundly. They couldn't believe it.

This....

[TheSaint250]

As some of you guys were saying, Dems were looking for more votes.  Since Fox favored Trump, that's probably why they called it more quickly, but I have to say, Fox did manage to be (I believe) the first network to call the election for Trump.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

As some of you guys were saying, Dems were looking for more votes.  Since Fox favored Trump, that's probably why they called it more quickly, but I have to say, Fox did manage to be (I believe) the first network to call the election for Trump.

Fox was lagging a bit too with Pennsylvania. The AP, NYT, WaPo, and Politico all called PA by 1:45AM. Now I read one of the reasons was because there was a glitch in precincts counted, so when the AP made their PA projection they thought 99% ballots were counted by only 89% ballots were counted (which is what the networks saw).

If that's true, I can see why Fox called Pennsylvania at 2:40AM instead of 1:40AM.

What if another major media organization called Wisconsin? Like CBS or CNN calling it at 1:00AM? That means the news organizations that use the networks and AP to make projections like Bloomberg, PBS, CSPAN, and BBC would have had Trump winning by 1:35AM, but no media organization would have called it by 2:30AM. Awkward!!!

[Thomas Jackson]

As some of you guys were saying, Dems were looking for more votes.  Since Fox favored Trump, that's probably why they called it more quickly, but I have to say, Fox did manage to be (I believe) the first network to call the election for Trump.

PBS beat Fox.

[Thomas Jackson]

Network   -      Time          -      Decisive State.
-----------------------------------------------------------
AP - 2:31 (Wisconsin).
RT - 2:31 (Wisconsin).
Fusion - 2:31 AM (Wisconsin).
PBS -  2:31 AM (Wisconsin).
Fox News -  2:40 AM (Pennsylvania tipping point State) (The Fox anchors didn't seem to know what was going on. Rove was in the middle of speaking when the electoral scorecard flipped on the screen and the crowd outside noticed it and went crazy.)
Fox Business - 2:40 AM (Pennsylvania).
CNN - 2:47 AM (Pennsylvania) (Called the Race when Trump was walking out to the Air Force One music).
CBS - 2:53 AM (I think Pennsylvania, but it is hard to tell, because they called the race in the middle of the speech.)
ABC - 2:53 AM (ABC Called Pennsylvania at 2:47, but had not yet called Wisconsin, they put up a graphic in the middle of Trump's speech saying that he was the next President, but didn't update the electoral votes until later.)
NBC - 3:03 AM (Called both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin at the same time, almost at the very end of the victory speech.)
MSNBC - 3:03 AM (Called both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin at the end of Trump's speech.)
BBC - 3:04 AM (Wisconsin).

[Thomas Jackson]

Interestingly enough, when Pennsylvania was called by the AP, the networks that relied on the AP call all admitted it was over, even though Wisconsin wasn't called for another hour.

Example:

https://youtu.be/NM220XCGypQ

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Interestingly enough, when Pennsylvania was called by the AP, the networks that relied on the AP call all admitted it was over, even though Wisconsin wasn't called for another hour.

Example:

https://youtu.be/NM220XCGypQ

Bloomberg would have called a state if either a) the AP called it or b) two networks called it.

So it would have been interesting to see if CNN or CBS called Wisconsin at around 1AM. Then organizations like Bloomberg and PBS would call the race for Trump at around 1:35AM but no network would outright call the race for another hour.

[TheSaint250]

As some of you guys were saying, Dems were looking for more votes.  Since Fox favored Trump, that's probably why they called it more quickly, but I have to say, Fox did manage to be (I believe) the first network to call the election for Trump.

PBS beat Fox.

Huh. Didn't know that

[TJ in Oregon]

Allegedly, I believe, they were waiting for absentee ballots to be counted in Milwaukee County, which provided Hillary somewhere around a 20,000 vote boost. I suppose it may have been possible for the boost to be larger, or that the networks were expecting 2012-type margins out of Milwaukee County and thus withheld judgment until it was obvious what the numbers would look like.

Another possible reason is that there were still a dozen or so precincts in Madison that had to report that are actually ghost precincts with <10 voters (I don't know why they exist but they do) but that the media could have mistakenly believed were similar to the more populous city wards, some of which gave Hillary up to ~2,000 vote margins.

As a local it was fairly obvious Wisconsin was over before midnight, but I suppose the national media was less convinced without paying close attention. (You can get the fastest results by checking the county clerks' websites most of the time; plus you can see which precincts are out). Plus it makes sense for the media to exercise a great deal of caution when calling critical states in presidential elections. Hey you never know, they may randomly forget to count Brookfield again.

I was starting to think Trump might win Wisconsin when Brown and Door Counties started coming in and his margins there were gigantic.

[Xing]

Maybe because it was actually very close. It was called before Minnesota or Arizona, both of which had larger margins of victory for each candidate. Why Arizona took so long is more puzzling to me.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

For the same reason they took so long to call Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Missouri, etc. etc.

I was quite surprised that they called Montana at poll closing time, honestly.

Complete shock and denial?

Missouri isn't usually called until 10PM anyway though (though Fox did call it when polls closed). For example, Missouri wasn't called for Romney and Bush 04 til 10PMish. Missouri counts its votes way too slowly.

Arizona I could KIND OF see them calling it a bit late. When CNN and CBS called it (around the same time at 2:30 AM) sounded reasonable.

Georgia's late call was crazy too! Called 2 hours late. They called Virginia and Colorado ASAP  for Clinton (nothing wrong with that) but were hesitant to call Georgia, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

[TheSaint250]

For the same reason they took so long to call Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Missouri, etc. etc.

I was quite surprised that they called Montana at poll closing time, honestly.

I know Fox called Missouri early.  I was actually quite surprised because I believed it would be closer than +18 for Trump.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

For the same reason they took so long to call Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Missouri, etc. etc.

I was quite surprised that they called Montana at poll closing time, honestly.

Complete shock and denial?

Missouri isn't usually called until 10PM anyway though (though Fox did call it when polls closed). For example, Missouri wasn't called for Romney and Bush 04 til 10PMish. Missouri counts its votes way too slowly.

Arizona I could KIND OF see them calling it a bit late. When CNN and CBS called it (around the same time at 2:30 AM) sounded reasonable.

Georgia's late call was crazy too! Called 2 hours late. They called Virginia and Colorado ASAP  for Clinton (nothing wrong with that) but were hesitant to call Georgia, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

Didn't FOX call Florida before Georgia?  Didn't South Carolina also take a while?

[Hammy]

Wasn't Wisconsin the closest of the larger states?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Wasn't Wisconsin the closest of the larger states?

Michigan was much closer, and Pennsylvania became closer than Wisconsin days after the election.

[Annatar]

This year, states seem to be called later then usual, especially Trump states, possibly reflecting media bias. Georgia for example was called much later as compared to Colorado keeping in mind that GA closed at 7 pm whereas Colorado which closed at 9 pm, 2 hours later, and the margin in both states was similar, 5.2% in GA and 4.9% in CO. Likewise Ohio should have been called much earlier, as should have North Carolina, NC was actually called later in 2016 then 2012, even though the margin was 1.6% bigger for the GOP candidate as compared to 2012.

[Gustaf]

While I wouldn't deny that many network journalists might have hoped for a Trump loss I think there is a somewhat simpler explanation which has to do with evidence contradicting priors.

Regardless of what one hoped would be the outcome it was reasonable for most people to enter election night with a fairly strong prior that Clinton would win. That's what the polls, betting markets and prediction aggregators were all saying. If evidence is coming in that contradicts what you expect you're slower to accept it.

This of course often makes sense. Even if your exit poll says Trump is winning Vermont you're gonna disregard it. Even if the early precincts show Clinton on course to win Oklahoma you'll give it no credence.

[Kingpoleon]

I knew Trump had won it by, at the latest, 10:30.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

For the same reason they took so long to call Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Missouri, etc. etc.

I was quite surprised that they called Montana at poll closing time, honestly.

Complete shock and denial?

Missouri isn't usually called until 10PM anyway though (though Fox did call it when polls closed). For example, Missouri wasn't called for Romney and Bush 04 til 10PMish. Missouri counts its votes way too slowly.

Arizona I could KIND OF see them calling it a bit late. When CNN and CBS called it (around the same time at 2:30 AM) sounded reasonable.

Georgia's late call was crazy too! Called 2 hours late. They called Virginia and Colorado ASAP  for Clinton (nothing wrong with that) but were hesitant to call Georgia, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

Didn't FOX call Florida before Georgia?  Didn't South Carolina also take a while?

AP/Politico/Fox News called Florida at about 10:55PM. Most of the other organizations wouldn't call Florida til 11:30PM.

Georgia was called by all the news organizations from 11:35-11:45PM.

It was bizarre. It was like they forgot about it. Should've been called at around 9:30PM. Atlanta was a little bit slow but it was clear Trump would win it.

South Carolina is usually called late due to slow counting. In 2004 NC was called before SC. In 2012 they didn't call SC til 8PM.

[BigSkyBob]

Maybe because it was actually very close. It was called before Minnesota or Arizona, both of which had larger margins of victory for each candidate. Why Arizona took so long is more puzzling to me.

Arizona counts absentee/mail-in ballots postmarked by election day. It was clear Trump had would have a significant lead at the end of election night, but, whether, or not, the late mail ballots broke heavily to Clinton was an unknown unknown. The Decision Desk called it much earlier.

[emailking]

But Wisconsin should have been called MUCH sooner.

All networks and news organizations should have called Wisconsin by 12:30AM. Then the networks should have called Pennsylvania all before 2AM like print media organizations did.

You say that, but unless you were doing a hardcore statistical analysis on it, complete with computer modeling, analyzing all of the precinct totals and exit polling, etc, then you really have no idea whether they "should" have been called earlier. The decision desks are doing all that and don't make calls until there is virtually no doubt.

Georgia was called by all the news organizations from 11:35-11:45PM.

It was bizarre. It was like they forgot about it. Should've been called at around 9:30PM. Atlanta was a little bit slow but it was clear Trump would win it.

"Clear" to you is probably a lower threshold than the statistical threshold they're looking for before making a projection they can stand behind. There's a reason the networks have had only one misfire on projections since 2000, and it's not because they make the calls once the result are clear to Atlas armchair pollsters.

If Clinton was ahead they would have called it ASAP.

Possibly. It would depend on where the vote was coming from that was putting her ahead. Regardless, if she was ahead it would be more likely she would win because it would align with the exit polls. It's basically was Gustaf said. Less evidence would be needed from raw votes to pass their statistical threshold for calling the race.