Does Cook County need 4 VRA-compliant districts?

[mencken]

I've been using Dave's Redistricting App to try to make county line-deferential congressional districts for horribly gerrymandered states (Maryland, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Illinois). This is what I ended up with when I divided Cook County evenly into 7 congressional districts:

1st: Obama 93-7, W 13-B 68-H 16
2nd: Obama 76-23, W 38-B 44-H 15
3rd: Obama 68-31, W 51-B 11-H 34
4th: Obama 91-9, W 17-B 28-H 52
5th: Obama 79-19, W 57-B 11-H 18-A 12
9th: Obama 67-32, W 65-B 7-H 15-A 11
10th: Obama 60-39, W 66-B 3-H 17-A 13

I have to imagine that Danny Davis (and possibly Bobby Rush) would sue under the VRA were this map implemented, so I am curious whether the courts would intervene to mandate 3 black-majority districts?

[krazen1211]

The population for 3 black-majority districts barely exists now, and almost certainly won't by 2021. I suspect they will just draw them to the low 40s VAP.

[mencken]

The population for 3 black-majority districts barely exists now, and almost certainly won't by 2021. I suspect they will just draw them to the low 40s VAP.

I figured as much (there was a deficit of about ~100K in each district when I started with 2000 lines)