Favorite recent post by the previous poster

[Antonio the Sixth]

There is no Clinton wing of the Democratic Party. She won the nomination because she cobbled together a coalition of several wings of the party including the minority interest/civil rights wing, the feminist wing, the DLC/corporate shill wing, and the urban wing. Each of these have their own message, and of course it's hard to parse out a single message when you have a base that diverse. That being said, what did her in was how easily she was tied to the least popular wing and worst at coming up with a coherent message, the DWS/DLC wing. I don't think even her most die-hard supporters, myself included, would argue they are helping formulate or advance the Democratic agenda, but at the same time, it's ridiculous to say that the feminist+LGBTQ+Civil rights wings of the Democratic Party have "no message."

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I checked about 20 of those.

[This account no longer in use.]

Self-identification as a racist i think is rather low in the United States. No one wants to go out and proclaim to the wold that, literally, they are racist. The term's #1 fuction is a label someone uses to describe others.
Rich white folks in praticular tend to reject the label because they see themselves as 'respectable' in ways other people aren't.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Context: Opinion of NOVA Green, FC poll

One of the most underrated posters here.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

D-NC is a cool avatar, full stop.

Again, quite obvious.

[kyc0705]

Pull the trigger, Piglet.

It sounds like it came from a Winnie the Pooh crime drama fanfic.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You've just broke The Rule™. May your testicles rot and flake off, Dave willing.

Rules were made to be broken.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Communism

[NOVA Green]

Reagan didn't have particularly high support among Working-class Whites by historical standards, except maybe in the South (and even then, Republicans after him have improved over his result). In most of the Rust Belt, his margins were extremely underwhelming.

Context:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=268071.msg5727787#msg5727787

[Virginiá]

A lot of NOVA's posts are top-notch. He is as friendly as can be and puts a lot of effort into some of them. That being said:

Pretty cool thread, and tons of good points made from pretty much all posters....

One item that hasn't been mentioned, is the dramatic increase in voting levels between '12 and '16 in the major population areas of California.

Now, if we roll back to '08, since much of the attention has been focused on the '12>'16 changes, it's pretty clear that there were many '08 voters who simply didn't vote in '12.

For Example (By Total Votes):

SoCal:

LA County--- '08- 3.32 Mil (69 D- 29 R); '12- 3.18 Mil (70 D- 28 R); '16- 3.43 Mil (72 D- 22 R)
San Diego---'08-  1.24 Mil (54 D- 44 R); '12- 1.19 Mil (53 D- 45 R); '16- 1.31 Mil (56 D- 37 R)
Orange- -    '08-  1.16 Mil (48 D- 50 R); '12: 1.12 Mil (47 D- 52 R); '16- 1.20 Mil  (51 D- 42 R)

NorCal:

Santa Clara- '08   666k   (69 D- 29 R); '12: 644k  (70 D- 27 R); '16: 704k (73 D-21 R)
Alameda-     '08   623k   (79 D- 19 R); '12: 597k  (79 D- 18 R)' '16: 660k (78 D- 15 R)
Contra Costa- '08 453k   (68 D- 30 R); '12: 439k (66 D- 31 R); '16: 473k (68 D- 25 R)
SF-                '08- 384k  (84 D- 14 R); '12  361k  (83 D- 13 R); '16: 409k (84 D- 9 R)

Central Valley:

Sacramento- '08 543k  (58 D- 39 R); '12: 518k (58 D- 39 R); '16: 562k (58 D- 34 R)
Fresno-        '08 273k  (50 D- 48 R); '12: 260k (50 D- 48 R); '16: 287k (49 D- 43 R)
San Joaquin- '08 210k (54 D- 44 R); '12: 205k  (56 D- 42 R); '16: 227k (53 D- 39 R)

So what are the key takeaways from all this as per the OPs original question, which I divided into two parts?

"I know his thoughts on immigration definitely hurt Trump, but how did Hillary manage to outperform Obama by almost 1,000,000 votes, and cause Orange County to vote Democrat for the first time since 1964"

How did HRC outperform Obama by 1 Million Votes (Assuming OP was talking about '12>'16)?

1.) The dramatic increase in votes between '12 and '16 in the largest population centers in the State, although not necessarily the fasting growing counties in terms of total population growth or % of population increase.

A.) LA County saw a net growth of 150k voters between '08 and '16. Between '12 and '16 there was a growth of 250k voters....

B.) We can see another 100k Voters between '08 and '16 combined SoCal OC/SD, but net growth of 200k voters between '12 and '16.

C.) Bay Area-- Santa Clara added 38k Voters between '08 and '16, but 60k Voters between '12 and '16.... We can roll through the numbers in various other counties in the Bay Area, and even Central Valley, but I think you all are getting the point that I'm making here.

2.) Between '12 and '16 there were only marginal gains in total support levels for the Democratic Presidential candidate in the largest counties of Socal....

For example there was only a 2-4% increase in Democratic support in the three largest vote banks of SoCal... So you have 400k "new" voters between '12 and '16 (5.9 Million) and the Dems gain maybe 3%.

3.) Meanwhile in SoCal between '12 and '16 there was a virtual collapse of Republican support between 6-10% of their percentage levels at the same time.

4.) Ok--- take a look at Norcal, you see a similar pattern in the largest "Vote Banks" up there....
Santa Clara County saw a massive surge of voters, between '12 and '16, Dems add 3% to Obama '12 numbers, and Pubs lose 6% of their Romney '12 numbers.

5.) It's pretty clear that Millennial voters in California were super motivated to turn out to vote in '16, mainly as a rejection of Trump, rather than an endorsement of HRC, in a State where Millennials tend to be even more Latino-American, Asian-American than the state writ large. Still, there was a high level of 3rd Party support among these voters in Cali, and the math doesn't add up to explain a 1 Million vote margin increase between Obama '12 and HRC '16.

To summarize: The dramatic vote margin gap in California between Obama '12 and Clinton '16 is best explained by the following three factors:

1.) Dramatic increase in voter turnout levels between '12 and '16 in the largest counties in California, many of whom had voted in '08 but demotivated in '12.

2.) Minor increase in Democratic margins between '08 and '12 in the largest counties (2-3% SoCal), flatline numbers on the NorCal (Bay Area- other than Santa Clara County), with a dramatic collapse in Republican support.

3.) It does appear clear that in many heavily Asian-American communities in California, there were massive swings against the Republican nominee and towards Clinton, regardless of household income levels nor "country of origin".

4.) It is not particularly clear to what extent the Latino Vote in California impacted the increased total Democratic vote margins between '12 and '16. Certainly it does appear that voter turnout increased significantly among California Latinos between that time, and most likely explains some of the dramatic drops in voter turnout between '08 and '12, and certainly played a role in OC flipping in '16.

Someone needs to roll some results by precincts/cities in Cali to assess further, and I'll let other assess the whole OC thing, since there are multiple other threads devoted to this very topic.

[Mr. Smith]

Largest tax increase in Illinois history, common sense, sure....  perhaps to a tax and spend liberal!

As opposed to a borrow and spend conservative?

Yes honestly at this point the term 'tax and spend' doesn't even bother me anymore. It at least reminds me that the people saying that support the party whose fiscal policy since Reagan amounts to basically a dine-and-dash scheme. Sit around eating everything in the place, say you're going to the bathroom then dip out the back while your friend gets stuck with the bill. Then when that friend wants to eat food the next day, accuse them of eating too much last time and that they need to cut down on food consumption.

Simply put: Republican lawmakers have become so anti-tax that they just run up debt instead and blame the "others," all because they are too afraid to level with their voters about the reality they live in.

[GGover]

10. Trump
9. Clinton
8. Reagan
7. Nixon
6. LBJ
5. Bush Sr
4. Bush Jr
3. Obama
2. Ford
1. Carter

Nixon wasn't such a bad guy.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is terrible

Agreed.

I really do think of myself as a pretty liberal person, but I'm personally not a fan of abortion. It's pretty upsetting that my tax dollars are being used to fund this. If a woman was raped or just can't have the child for health reasons, sure, but letting anyone just have an abortion at anytime is an absurd waste of money.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

In general I think we should look at how FDR built his coalition. It ruled American politics for many, many years. It had many seemingly contradictory elements too. Conservative southerners, blacks, city bosses, white ethnics, working class people, liberal middle-class people...
I think we ought to try and harness the fact the GOP is inevitably going to alienate many people. We could, with measured, careful steps, integrate many elements into an anti-Trump coalition that will reject the misguided ideas of Trumpists. GOP governance is bound to have to deal with some unpopular issues; this is an oppurtunity given to us on a silver platter. We need to be engaging in coalition building. This entails welcoming people like Ossoff, and supporting them in elections. We need to be a united Dem party which is willing to work for the greater good. Once we've gotten enough dominance, we can leverage this to pass some needed reforms that makes life easier for workers, for society, for everyone.

[kyc0705]

Are we really doing this?

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Me whenever ghostmonkey starts a thread:

[SATW]

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (MS/GG) - Underground Zone

[Antonio the Sixth]

Context:

I am a Marco Rubio supporter, so yes.

[kyc0705]

On how many genders there are:

Zero.

[Mr. Smith]

Me whenever ghostmonkey starts a thread:

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why?

[NOVA Green]

Btw, it always seemed like a peculiar decision to have the G20 summit take place in Hamburg of all places, a major city with such a strong left-wing anarchist protest scene.

That sounds almost as good an idea as holding a G8 summit in Genoa...

Having lived In Germany for a year back in the Days, I completely agree with this assessment....

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It should be noted that the poorest counties in Kansas and Indiana listed above are homes to major state universities, and the large presence of graduate students likely makes those areas seem poorer than they actually are (at least, without all of the negative social indicators associated with poverty, like low education rates, malnutrition, etc.).  I can assure you, Monroe County, Indiana is a very nice place to be!  I know Athens has poor Appalachian communities in addition to the university town, but I don't believe this is the case to such an extent in either IN/KS.  Just something to keep in mind.

Good points which I noticed but didn't get around to covering....

OT: Bloomington, Indiana is a pretty cool town, having spend a bit of time travelling through several decades back.

This is one of the items that really stood out as a contract between the "poorest county by MHI" vs "county with highest % of people below the poverty line lists--- university counties popping up on the list.

So we'll get back to the college county scene in a moment, but firstly I wanted to try to group together patterns in the "Poorest by MHI" dataset, and then subsequently "% of pop in poverty" dataset.

Poorest County by MHI:

These appear to roughly break into the following broader categories---

1.) Deep South- "Black Belt" Counties

(Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Belt_(U.S._region)

What do these counties have in common? (Other than voting overwhelmingly for HRC)

1.) A majority of the population is African-American, although only in AL, LA, MS, & SC >70%.
Halifax County NC has the lowest % of AA population at 51%, with Clay, GA at 58%, and Phillips, AR at 63%.

2.) The Anglo-American population is increasingly aging and Whites 55+ years represent 7-20% of the total County population from lowest to highest (MS, SC, LA, AL, NC, AR, & GA).

3.) In general, the population of these (7) counties tends to be older than average, but interestingly enough in LA & MS only 23-24% of the pop is 55+/Yrs.

4.) Economically: Agriculture still has a major economic impact in almost all of these counties in terms of employment by industry, but to a much lesser extent than I had expected. Agriculture accounts from 2-14 % of employment in the following order from lowest to highest (NC, MS, AL, SC, LA, AR, GA).

5.) Manufacturing accounts for a disproportionately amount of employment in virtually all of the counties.... Over 20% of workers are employed in MFG in MS & SC, 15% in AL/GA/NC. 13% in LA.

So, after looking at both the '12>'16 election numbers and the demographic profile of the various counties in a summarized format what does that tell us?

A.) Alabama- (Wilcox)- 400 less voters between '12 and '16 (+5% R Swing)

Considering that the County is 73% AA, and the overwhelmingly Democratic nature of the county, one can likely assume these were likely AA and/or Millennial voters that didn't vote that caused the +5% R swing, as opposed to defection of AA/White Obama voters switching to Trump. This could become an increasing problem for Democrats here, considering that the "White" vote is increasingly aging, and Millennial voters apparently weren't sufficiently enthused to vote in '16.

B.) Arkansas (Phillips County)--- 1,000 less voters '12-'16 (!)  (+6% R Swing)

 I would be remiss to not mention the history of Elaine, where a White lynch mob murdered 237 Americans back in 1919, after there was an attempt to unionize and organize tenant farmers in the County.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_County,_Arkansas

Interestingly enough this is one of the counties on the list with the highest % of "White" population (35%). It has one of the highest % of Whites > 55 (18%), which basically account for 50% of the White population of the County....Also, unlike many other counties in this category, manufacturing is the lowest accounting for only 8.2% of the workforce.

Despite the horrific massacre that occurred here almost 100 years ago, it still appears that White within the County did not swing heavily towards Trump, but rather that a huge number of voters <45 simply were not motivated to vote in '16.

C.) Georgia- (Clay County)- 100 less voters '12-'16 (+12% R Swing)

58% AA, 35% White--- Agriculture accounts for 14% of employment, and MFG 15%. 19% of the County population are Whites > 55 Yrs

Perhaps it is not surprising that it experienced the largest swings towards Trump of these (7) counties....

It's also the oldest county with 36% of the population 55+...

It does appear the drop-off in turnout doesn't explain the swings here.... Plenty of poor older Whites that voted Obama '12 swung to Trump '16....

D.) Louisiana- (East Carroll)--- 1.1k drop in Votes '12>'16. (+3% D Swing)

70% AA, but one of the lowest % of Whites >55 (11% of County). It also has the lowest % of the population 55+ of these states. Interestingly enough, although it does have a workforce 8% Ag, 13% MFG, 9% of the workforce is employed in the "Government Industry"....

This is pretty much the only county where there was a swing towards the Democratic Pres candidate between '12 and '16....

Without having detailed knowledge of the reason, the only explanation that I could provide would be that role of the government sector... Any explanations from Atlasia on why this would be an exception?

E.) Mississippi- (Holmes)-- 1,1k drop in votes '12>'16   (+2% R Swing)

The most AA County on the list (83%), and one of the lowest % employed in agriculture. 20% of the workforce is in manufacturing, and one of the lowest % of adults 55 + (24%). Only 7% of the County are Whites 55+

F.) South Carolina- (Allendale)- 600 drop in votes '12>'16 (+5% R Swing)

2nd highest in AA population (77%), only 10% of the population are Whites 55+, and about in the median range of age for total population (28% 55+).

Economically, it has the highest % of the population in the Manufacturing sector (22.2%!). There is still definitely some agricultural employment here (6.0%), but much less so than the other counties on this list.

G.) North Carolina- (Halifax)- 800 drop in votes '12>'16 (+5% R Swing)

Honestly, I'm not sure why I have Halifax on this list, since it shares very little similarities to the other six counties listed....

We're not really talking about a heavily rural County compared to the others.

The economy is heavily dominated by Health Care (16.8%), and Manufacturing (16.7%). It is the 2nd oldest county on the list (31% 55+). Whites 55+ are 14% of the total population, but considering that 39% of the County identifies as White, this stands out much less than the counties in Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia, (Or even Louisiana for that matter).

So what's a bit remarkable about Halifax County, is how small a swing there was towards Trump, especially when compared with Clay County GA and Phillips County AR....

In fact, it is actually remarkable how heavily Democratic this County is. Sure I know that NC Whites tend to be much more receptive to supporting Democrats than in AL, MS, & GA for example....

The only thing I can thing of is the presence of one of the oldest Community Colleges in NC, which also likely accounts for a huge chunk of public sector employment, also explains a more ethnically diverse population within the County.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halifax_Community_College


So what accounts for the dramatic decline in turnout among the poorest communities by MHI within the Black Belt?

1.) The cliche hack answer that I will summarily preempt is "Well Obama's Black and these are mostly heavily Black counties and now that he's not on the ticket, so that explains it all!"

2.) The secondary cliche hack answer that Atlas might present is: "Well all of these WWC voters in heavily Black Counties liked Obama in '12 and despised HRC in '16 and that somehow explains these swings"

3.) The 3rd argument might be something along the lines of: "Trump spoke to rural America and somehow created massive swings among Black and White Voters in poor rural counties in the deep South"

Ok--- now that I have preempted traditional Atlas Cliches, my thoughts are as follows:

1.) Older Voters both African-American and "White" tend to vote at much higher levels than Middle-Aged, and younger voters, especially in the "Deep South". In theory this should benefit Republican voters on the margins in  lower turnout elections, considering how concentrated the White vote is in the 55+ category in virtually all of these counties.

2.) If one looks at the ethnic composition of voters <45 Years, these counties are all much "Blacker" than the overall county population.

3.) The high level of employment in the manufacturing sector, and dramatic decline in employment in the agricultural sector has created a situation where both Millennial Whites & Blacks working side-by-side in the agricultural processing plants in the region rejected both the HRC and Trump economic vision, and the respective messaging images of the Democratic/Republican Party standard bearers.

Let's face it--- manufacturing work is supposed to be decent paying jobs with benefits and an "out" from doing seasonal work on a Farm, especially in economically depressed rural communities.

This is not the case in the some of the poorest communities in the Deep South, where major job injuries are prevalent, jobs basically pay only Federal Minimum Wage, and neither political party is really addressing the fundamental issues.

4.) It is actually amazing that there wasn't a stronger swing towards Trump in many of these counties, when looking at the overall demographics, and the dramatic drop in voter turnout '12>'16.

The only logical explanation is that poor Whites in the poorest counties of the Deep South, didn't actually swing towards Trump, but rather that many voters <45 sat the election out.

It should be interesting to monitor these counties come 2020, especially with a different Democrat at the top of ticket.

*** I really should drop Halifax from the list, but need to find another place to put it.

Thoughts anyone?

[Kamala]

#WeWantWarsi

I thought it was "#WeWantWars!"

[RFayette]

"Dakota Nice" is a thing, guys. It's not as famous as Minnesota Nice, but we're decent people too.