What would a hypothetical EC map look like circa October 2001?

[twenty42]

All things being equal...Bush is president, his approval ratings are sky-high after 9/11, and Americans are united by patriotic fervor. I'd say the map looks something like this...

I think Bush would have a good chance of a 50-state shutout. Bush's heaviest losses came from the mid-Atlantic and New England, but I think there could've been a rollover effect in most of those states from the close proximity to either NYC or DC. I think Bush carries NY for obvious reasons, and his massive upswing in popularity would've probably swung his 10-12 point losses in CA, IL, and VT into narrow wins.

I also think Bush could've cracked 40% in DC given the Pentagon attack and the rally around the White House.

[jaichind]

But I would argue that Bush II's ratings were high precisely because there was no national election.  Also Bush II's approval rating in Nov 2002 were in the mid 60s. While the GOP did fairly well, they got nowhere close to 60%+ share of the vote.  And the GOP actually lost ground in governorships.

[twenty42]

But I would argue that Bush II's ratings were high precisely because there was no national election.  Also Bush II's approval rating in Nov 2002 were in the mid 60s. While the GOP did fairly well, they got nowhere close to 60%+ share of the vote.  And the GOP actually lost ground in governorships.

There is always a hypothetical electoral map though. Election Day is just a snapshot.

[Nichlemn]

But I would argue that Bush II's ratings were high precisely because there was no national election.  Also Bush II's approval rating in Nov 2002 were in the mid 60s. While the GOP did fairly well, they got nowhere close to 60%+ share of the vote.  And the GOP actually lost ground in governorships.

There is always a hypothetical electoral map though. Election Day is just a snapshot.

'

But if it was late in a Presidential campaign when 9/11 happened, the political climate would be more partisan. Bush still might see a big approval bump, but if he'd been in a close race at the time, I doubt it would suddenly turn into a huge landslide. Like I doubt he carries NY or (especially) gets 40% in DC just because 9/11 occurred in those places. I do agree that CA/IL are quite plausible, but that's because they would have been consistent with a ~10 point national win which would be about what I think Bush could get (though I think that's close to the upper limit).

[Kingpoleon]

I think Maryland, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and D. C. would vote Democratic. New York and Vermont would be the closest states.

[libertpaulian]

I think an even better question would be: What if 9/11 happened in mid-to-late October 2004?

[Former President tack50]

My guess.

Delaware and Rhode Island are supposed to be tossups. End result:

Bush 502
Democrat 29
Tossups 7

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

I think an even better question would be: What if 9/11 happened in mid-to-late October 2004?

Kerry never would have been nominated.

[Vern]

I think an even better question would be: What if 9/11 happened in mid-to-late October 2004?

Kerry never would have been nominated.

more like what if it happen 9/11/00

[Sumner 1868]

Even at the height of Dubya's popularity 37% said they would vote for a Democrat over him. That probably means Rhode Island and DC at the least.